Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251827 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 227 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UNSEASONABLE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THE ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA IS LEADING TO INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT. HIGH RES MESO MODELS WANT TO BRING A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVER NWRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BULK OF US SHOULD EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY. SREF POPS FOR NWRN PA LOOK TOO HIGH WHILE MOS POPS LOOK TOO LOW. THINKING IS THAT MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE COVERED BY SMALL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE REGION. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH. THE LOWS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE COLD NW FLOW IS USED TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT QPF OVER NWRN PA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IT`S HARD TO BUY OFF ON THE HIGH SREF POPS...WITH THE LOWER GEFS CHANCE POPS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FAVORING THE AREA TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CLEARFIELD UP TO ELMIRA IN SOUTHERN NY. THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA WILL SEE MORE OF A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE SNEAKING OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE CHILLER THAN TODAY BY AN AVERAGE OF 3-5 DEG. REFRESHING BUT COOL FOR LATE SUMMER.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY NW FLOW ALOFT...AS THE EARLY WEEK/DEEP UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND LIFTS NE ACROSS SRN QUEBEC. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A COOL/DRY STRETCH OF WX WED-FRI. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE CHC OF A FEW PM SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED-THU...RESULTING FROM COOL POOL ALOFT CENTERED JUST NORTH OF PA. ANY RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. MODERATING TEMPS AND CONTINUED DRY WX IS EXPECTED SAT...AS UPPER LOW OVR SE CANADA LIFTS OUT AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WARM UP SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH SLIPS OFF THE EAST COAST AND RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPS. GEFS/ECENS BOTH INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST SUNDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED INTRODUCED THE CHC OF PM SHOWERS THAT DAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH WHERE OCNL CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-3000` AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BACK TO 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY VFR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MVFR STRATOCU WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BRADFORD...AND COULD EVEN WORK SOUTH INTO THE JOHNSTOWN TERMINAL...BUT IS NOT IN THEIR TAF AT THE MOMENT. OUTLOOK... WED...MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHOWERS NW MTNS. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX EXPECTED. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH PM THUNDER POSSIBLE.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU AVIATION...LA CORTE

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