Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261143 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 643 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLIPPER WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...AS SECONDARY COASTAL STORM TAKES SHAPE SOUTH OF NEW ENG. THE COASTAL STORM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NEW ENG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING AN OVERALL DIMINISHING OF RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVR CENTRAL PA ALONG AXIS OF DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BTWN LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR NEW ENGLAND. LATEST 4KM NAM/HRRR/RAP ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS/ALLEGHENIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF DEEPENING TROF WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED SFC TROF AND PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR THE ALLEGHENY AND SC MTNS. ALL LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES COASTAL STORM WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON CENTRAL PA. MDL 7H FGEN FIELDS INDICATE ASSOC DEFORMATION BAND SNOW WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF OUR CWA. BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF SUPPORTS AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ALLEGHENY MTNS. DWINDLING MTNS SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY...AS NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN WAKE OF STORM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FAIR AND CHILLY WED EXPECTED WED...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE AREA. MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES A CHANCE OF SNOW THURS/THU NIGHT WITH NEXT IN SERIES OF CLIPPERS. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS THE SFC LOW NORTH OF PA...LIKELY RESULTING IN MINIMAL ACCUMS ACROSS OUR AREA. ECENS SHOWS A DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVR THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND...OFFERING NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...TAF SITES CONTINUE TO DROP. ALL TAF SITES OUTSIDE OF BFD ARE MVFR AND LOWER WITH KJST...THV AND AOO SOCKED IN WITH VERY LOW CIG/VSBY AND LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR CONDS. THESE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REDUCE ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR CONDS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. SNOW/SNSH CONTINUES MONDAY INTO TUES. NW WINDS PICK UP MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS LOW PRES SPINS UP OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. QUIET WX WEDNESDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER DROPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI. OUTLOOK... MON-MON NIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW/SNSH. TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND POSS LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST. WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED. THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. THU NIGHT- FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>026-033>036-045-058-059-064>066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ027- 028-041-046-049>053-056-057-063. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...CERU/EVANEGO

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