Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 161852 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 252 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. A STRING OF MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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INVERSION LOWERING AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NORTHWEST ARE DROPPING NEAR 40F AT 18Z. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER RAPIDLY AND MOST WILL BE GONE BY SUNSET. SOME MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE OFF THE LAKE AND KEEP SCT CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST. BUT LOWERING DEWPOINTS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND CALM AIR WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF. AFTER COLLABORATION DISCUSSIONS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...THE CONSENSUS IS THAT WE WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT/WED AM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS MAY ALSO BE TOUGH TO PUSH DOWN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO FORM. ALL THESE SHOULD WORK AGAINST A WIDESPREAD FROST. WILL MENTION VALLEY FOG ALMOST EVERYWHERE AND ALSO KEEP JUST A LITTLE HINT OF LOWER CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS FOR THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD ON WED. DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE MORNING VALLEY FOG LIFTS AND COOL AIR ALOFT LEADS TO SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. ON THE WHOLE...A REALLY NICE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S ON THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS OF THE NW AND MID 70S IN THE LOWEST/URBAN LOCATIONS IN THE SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE LIKELY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY /ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED/. 00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF TEMP PLUMES SUGGEST THAT THE SCATTERED FROST THREAT MAY EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND EVEN INTO THE TYPICALLY COLD RURAL LOCATIONS OF SCENT PENN. THE HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES. RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGHPRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VFR CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. NO WIND AND MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL LEAD TO RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT IFR TO EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST KIPT AND PERHAPS MANY OF THE OTHER TERMINALS. AFTER THE FOG BURNS AWAY ON WED...THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU. DEWPOINTS ARE SO LOW THAT THEY WILL BE HIGH-BASED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...AM FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX. SUN...SCT SHRA POSS - MAINLY DRY CFROPA.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...DANGELO

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