Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250312 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1012 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A NEW ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE JUST NOW REACHING NW PA AND SW NY. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER MY WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FROM THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT. SOME FLURRIES MAY SURVIVE AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE KEEPING READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA AGAIN WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME OF THE AIRMASSES THAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. FOR EXAMPLE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AT BFD IS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND -18 ON WEDNESDAY... AS OPPOSED TO -25 IN THE LAST FEW EVENTS. THIS ATMOSPHERE IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT... HOWEVER LAKE ERIE IS COMPLETELY FROZEN AND LAKE HURON IS MOSTLY FROZEN SO ANY LAKE RESPONSE WILL BE WEAK. WITH SOME UPSLOPE IN THE NW FLOW STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LINGERING OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS ON WEDNESDAY BUT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. MEANWHILE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH BROKEN CLOUD COVER FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COLD WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR ZERO NORTH TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. NEXT MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF SHORE... BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SOME WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. AGAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CLEAR WEATHER. LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTH. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED OR SURPASSED THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR NOW. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO THE 20S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VERY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEAR TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH. AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS/ECMWF IS INDICATING A SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY... THEN MORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE SYSTEM EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AS WARMER AIR MAY BE PULLED NORTHWARD IN ANY STRONGER SYSTEM THAT EVENTUALLY COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS WITH SCT- BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS SWD INTO KJST TONIGHT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AT KBFD AND KJST... OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. OUTLOOK... THU-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED ATTM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...9999 LONG TERM...9999 AVIATION...GARTNER

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