Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230536 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 136 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and pleasant weather continues today before turning warmer and more humid through mid week. The most likely opportunity for rain will be Thursday or early Friday. The upcoming weekend looks seasonably warm and mainly dry. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Calm winds and clear skies under high pressure will allow early morning temperatures to radiate nicely and bottom out in the mid 40s-50s range across most of central PA. IR satellite loop is not showing much valley fog as of 05z but expect that to change toward daybreak. Aside from the fog, expect another pleasantly sunny day with afternoon highs reaching the mid 70s to low 80s. High pressure remains in control through tonight with lows a bit warmer than the previous 2 nights but still relatively comfortable in the low 50s-60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure shifts eastward midweek with a warmer and more humid south/southwest airflow returning deep moisture /1-2" PW/ to the Keystone State by the end of the period. This will lead to increasing odds for rain across the NW Alleghenies where model consensus supports some light showers/QPF ending 25/12z. This area is in closer proximity to shortwaves embedded in SW flow aloft and best low-level moisture flux/850mb LLJ. Max/min temps should climb a solid 5 degrees across the board. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The 12Z mid range runs have continued to speed up the onset of precipitation out ahead of the approaching front. The latest ensembles continue to show the best PWATS between 18Z Thursday to 06Z Have adjusted the timing of the bell- curve of higher POPs a little nearer in time as most guidance now places the front over the area on Thursday/Night instead of Friday as it did previously. Cooler, drier air will advect into the region bringing a long period of precipitation-free weather through most of next week. The next period of active weather will come as an upper level trough moves into the region Thursday night into Friday. A front with +1 to 2 STD/anomalous PWATS progress through Friday. That should correspond with a passing but possibly weakening/shearing cold front. Dry air under high pressure is expected for next weekend. The week will start off cooler due to the northwesterly flow but will gradually warm as the week continues with temperatures slightly above normal through the second half of the week. What will also make this week feel cooler is the lack of humidity as dewpoints will be in the 50s through most of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Clear skies and a nearly calm wind expected overnight across Central Pennsylvania, as high pressure builds over the state. Radiational cooling, combined with warm river/stream water, should result in some early morning fog, mainly in the deep valleys north of I-80. Climatology suggests KBFD is the most likely airfield to be affected with IFR/LIFR conds. However, there is also some potential of briefly reduced vsbys at KAOO/KUNV/KIPT btwn 09Z-12Z. Any fog should burn off by arnd or shortly after 12Z, with a high confidence of widespread VFR conds and light wind the rest of the day. Outlook... Wed...Patchy AM fog possible, esp KBFD/KIPT. Thu...Isold pm tsra impacts possible, mainly w mtns. Fri...AM low cigs possible w mtns. Sat...No sig wx expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Dangelo/Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gartner

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