Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 211808 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 208 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A RELATIVELY COOL BUT MAINLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... IMPRESSIVE WARM UP UNDERWAY WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY WIND ALLOWING KERI AND KBFD TO WARM INTO THE 60S ALREADY (64F AND 60F RESPECTIVELY). ELSEWHERE...TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL PA...AND MOST AREAS WILL REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. ENJOY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SHOULD SEE INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY. FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND MILD LOW TEMPERATURES. FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO HAVE THUNDER ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG JET MAX AND RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z WED WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY 3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE TUES EVE/EARLY TUES NIGHT. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A GRADUAL REBOUND ON THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US. THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE 21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A SUNNY START...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO 5-10 KTS...BEFORE TURNING SW TONIGHT. FOR TUE...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO PENNSYLVANIA...STARTING IN THE NW BY 12Z. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TSTORM IN THE SUSQ VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO WED. OUTLOOK... TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY NW WINDS DEVELOPING LATE. TUE NIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW WINDS. THU...VFR. NO SIG WX. FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR

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