Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 171726 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 126 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Persistent high pressure blanketing the entire Mid Atlantic Region will bring a warming trend that will return above average temperatures through the upcoming weekend with no rainfall expected. The dry spell will likely come to an end early next week, followed by a pattern change favoring a more sustained period of seasonably cooler weather through the end of October. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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We are at the northern end of a big bubble so no trouble. Beautiful near normal mid-October day. Light winds so it should feel comfortable this afternoon with the sunshine. But when the sun goes down the air will be a tad cool. Due to warm water bodies expect some patchy fog in stream and river valleys and large ponds and lakes.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Steady warming trend begins with temperatures peaking well into the 60s on Wednesday and a bit warmer Wednesday night. Low temperatures probably could support some overnight patch fog Thursday AM. Another nice but slightly warmer day still on Thursday. We`re on a roll for nice this week.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure re-establishes itself over the area on Friday before migrating off the Mid Atlantic coast this weekend. Unseasonably warm and dry wx is expected through Sunday. Most guidance now supports emerging deep GOMEX inflow surging northward along/ahead of potent cold front to fuel a swath of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall next Mon-Tue. There are slight timing differences with the frontal progression as one might expect at this range. Despite this, the key message appears to be a wet one for early next week. Ensemble systems are signaling a pattern change in the wake of this system which should favor a more sustained period of |seasonably| cooler weather through the end of the month. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Big bubble no trouble. Light winds and good visibilities outside of patch fog overnight in deep valleys and along rivers and streams. About as a good a stretch of flying weather one can get in PA for the next 5-7 days sans a touch of valley fog in the overnights and near sunrise. Outlook... Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri-Sat...Patchy AM valley fog possible.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Grumm/Lambert

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