Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 260111 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 911 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA NEW YORK ON TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FEW CLOUD FLASHES AND CGS INSIDE THE CONVECTION OVER CRAWFORD CO...SO FEEL SAFE LEAVING MENTIONS OF THUNDER IN FOR THE NIGHT. GOOD INFLOW FROM THE SW TO THESE SHOWERS - BUT THE DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY 45-50F OVER SRN OH/SWRN PA. WITH THE QUICK MOTION AND LOW MOISTURE - THESE SHOULD NOT EVEN MAKE HEAVY RAIN FOR MORE THAN A MINUTE AT ANY LOCATION. HOWEVER...REPEATED CELLS PASSING OVERHEAD COULD TAKE QPF INTO THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE NRN TIER BY MORNING. HRR AND RAP PROPAGATE THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE EAST STEADILY. A SECOND AND PERHAPS THIRD WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS FCST TO DEVELOP OVER NRN OH AND CROSS THE STATE - MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 - LIKELY SKIRTING DRY/HAPPY VALLEY. PREV... TRANSLUCENT MID LEVEL DECK INCREASING OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND OPAQUE CLOUDINESS RESIDE NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER...AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE THINK MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK. TEMPS QUITE WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE 70S ELSEWHERE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GLAKS. POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LL JET WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. STILL TIMING BEST CHANCE OF RAIN BETWEEN 02Z TO 10Z TIMEFRAME. DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS LINGERS AFTERWARDS AS FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAY SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN...OUTLIERS NEAR ONE HALF...WHICH IS MUCH NEEDED GIVEN RECENT DRYNESS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SFC FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER TUESDAY MORNING... BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AS COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER REMAINS IN SPC MRGL OUTLOOK WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH CAPE TO PRODUCE A STRONG STORM OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING LOCAL PREFRONTAL 1000 J/KG CAPES IN THIS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE MORNING/AFTN. COOL AIR REACHES THE NORTHWEST EARLY TUE...WITH HIGHS THERE ONLY REACHING NEAR 60F. FARTHER SOUTH ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE SEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THIS PART OF THIS PACKAGE. STILL LOOKS DRY ON WED...AS A NE FLOW OF DRY AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM A LARGE HIGH OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA OUT OF WV MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS STILL ON FRIDAY. LEFT POPS IN. STILL SOME HINTS OF A JET MAX DROPPING SE ON SAT...BUT REALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS STILL EXPECT THE DAY TO BE DRY. MID SHIFT HAD SOME SHOWERS IN FOR LATER ON SUNDAY. YESTERDAY THE EC WAS TOO FAST...STILL THAT WAY TODAY. LEFT POPS IN BUT DID LOWER SOME FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT..DID EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE. LOOKS WET AND COOL FOR MONDAY. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE SUPERBLEND WITH THE POPS. CLEARING OUT LATER MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER THAN WE HAVE HAD LATELY. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST RADAR HAS SHOWERS BEGINNING TO STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATEST HRRR BRINGS TWO PORTIONS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST YOU ARE SEEING NOW AND WILL SPREAD THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AFFECTING BFD...UNV AND IPT...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. THE SECOND IS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PASS BEGIN TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 09Z. THAT LINE WILL BRING MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TO BFD...JST AND AOO. WITH MVFR POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIER AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES. THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA TUE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND HAVE PUT LLWS FOR AOO...JST...BFD AND UNV BETWEEN 09Z TO 14Z. OUTLOOK... WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY. SAT...FAIR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...CERU

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.