Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 160649 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 249 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak and almost exclusively dry cold front will drift south across Central PA tonight before dissipating as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region. Seasonably warm and dry conditions will occur Wednesday with abundant sunshine and light wind. Mainly clear skies and comfortable temperatures will follow for Wednesday night. Morning sunshine on Thursday will fade behind increasing afternoon clouds as a warm front approaches from the south, bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the region mainly Thursday night. A cold front will push through the state late Friday and Friday night bringing with it a few round of showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure will clear things out behind the front for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Spotter reports indicate that vsbys across parts of our SE zones (that received some mdt rainfall amounts over the past 36 hours) are locally dense. Sfc obs also show vsbys coming down fast from near KRYT and KTHV east to KLNS. this prompted collaboration with KLWX and KPHI and issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory for several SE counties in our CWA from 03Z to 13Z Wed. High res/CAMS guidance agrees well with regional radar mosaic with respect to a subtle light wind shift line associated with a very weak cool front dropping south across the nrn mtns of PA this evening. Several, isolated showers were seen along this boundary, but overall area POPs to the south of Interstate 80 will stay mainly below 10 percent, while a few locations across the NW and Ncent mtns will be in the high chc range. After 05Z Thursday...rising heights and weak ridging aloft will lead to continued drying with skies expected to become clear to scattered. Light and variable winds and moderately high sfc dewpoints ranging from the L60s NW to the L70s SE will likely dip up to several deg late tonight via condensation/likely valley fog formation Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s will be several deg warmer than normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Wednesday continues to look dry after starting the day with a fair amount of fog to burn off. With plenty of sunshine we warm into the 70s and low 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will remain over the region over the region into Thursday. However the 00Z EC/GFS/NAM are in good agreement of another 500 MB trough approaching the region through the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon. This will correspond with a mid level closed low that will move through the peninsula of Michigan and bring a warm frontal boundary through the state Friday. This will allow for higher Max temperatures and a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Models begin to diverge into the weekend bu they have a cold front moving through the mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday morning. Based on NBM and latest mid range guidance have trended temperatures upward. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Fog impacts at most terminals through daybreak with local restrictions AOB airfield minimums. Expect conditions to improve to VFR by 14Z and prevail through the afternoon. Fog impacts are possible again tonight into Thursday morning and will address this with the 16/12z TAFs. .OUTLOOK... Thu-Fri...Sct Tstm impacts likely. Sat-Sun...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ057-059- 063>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl

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