Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 021922 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 322 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. BEEN ADJUSTING THE FCST AS NEEDED. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV THIS AFT. HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/ PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER SW PA COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. NOTHING SEVERE...STRONGER STORMS SOUTH OF PA AS OF 2 PM. DID ISSUE A SPS...VIL STILL BELOW 60. EXPECT ACTION TO DIE OFF BY 22-23Z...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE WHOLE. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TONIGHT. DID UP TEMPS A DEGREE...AND EXTEND FOG OUT PAST 12Z THU. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ADDED VCTS AT AOO AND JST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AOO OB NA FOR THE TIME BEING. EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE. ADJUSTED FCST BASED ON THE TENDENCY THIS MORNING. NO REAL CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEK IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. THUS...MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUTLOOK... FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...MARTIN

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