Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 041157 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST...WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MODERATE RAIN CONCENTRATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. RAINFALL OF 0.5-0.75 HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN THE I99/RT 220 CORRIDOR AND RT 219. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PWAT AIR IS LIFTED BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION. THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z. 00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT POPS PEGGED AT 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THOUGH FAR SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN EARLY TODAY IS THE QUITE SMALL POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED/MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW 3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST 1.2-1.5 INCHES. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES. EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY. A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET. LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC REGION WILL CONTINUE RAIN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. IFR TO MVFR CONDS SHOULD SLOWLY TREND TO THE UPSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER IN SPOTS AS WELL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE/AOB AIRFIELD MINS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ BURNS OFF. OUTLOOK... SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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