Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290339 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1039 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MESONET SHOWS SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS THE N MTNS AS OF 03Z. BASED ON AFTERNOON DWPTS AND LATEST RAP OUTPUT...EXPECT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES TO BOTTOM OUT BTWN ZERO AND 10BLW AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNDER SUCH AN IDEAL RAD COOLING SCENARIO...EXPECT WIDELY VARYING MIN TEMPS...WITH 15F DIFFERENCES LIKELY WITHIN THE SAME TOWNSHIPS. HAVE TRIED TO SETTLE ON AVG LOWS...WHICH WILL LKLY RANGE FROM ARND ZERO ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 10 ABV ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WAA ALOFT AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN...RESULTING IN RISING TEMPS LATE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE OPTED FOR A LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET. MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING. FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO. SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN. A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM. STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW WENT WITH CHC POPS. MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT....BRINGING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH. SAT...VFR. SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST. MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

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