Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 280617 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 217 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO JULY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AT 06Z...HRRR SHOWS N-S BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING THE SUSQ VLY SHIFTING QUICKLY EWD AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE CWA BY 09Z. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NE OHIO WILL BRING SCT SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ALLEGHENIES THRU DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD PRETTY CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH WITH MOST SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS EXPECTED TO CREST EARLY TODAY. SOME RESIDUAL MINOR FLOODING IS LKLY TO PERSIST EARLY TODAY WITH A FEW SECONDARY ROAD CLOSURES. A NEW FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK AT CAMP HILL HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH CREST BELOW FS. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RIVER POINT FCSTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SOME PCPN WILL LINGER TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS/HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE A NORTH/SOUTH AREA OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. QPF AMTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO PCPN EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH USUALLY COLDER AREAS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT STRUGGLING TO CRACK 60F. HIGHS IN THE LOWER SUSQ WILL REACH 70-75F.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING THE PRECIPITOUS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ROTATING AROUND A STRONGER CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN MODERATED BY A LARGE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL EMANATE FROM THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. HOWEVER AS THESE TROUGHS ARE SHALLOWER...LESS MOISTURE SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AND THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER ACCORDINGLY. NONETHELESS...THIS SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS WILL PROLONG THE PERSISTENT UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. LLWS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST AIRFIELDS...BUT WILL SEE THAT THREAT DIMINISH BEFORE 06Z AT ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...BUT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE CIGS. IN FACT...WITHOUT WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST AND NORTH...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN EASTERN AIRFIELDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SUN...RESTRICTIONS MAINLY NW HALF OF PA. SCT SHOWERS. MON...GENERALLY VFR. TUE...MAINLY VFR...SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH AND WEST WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
FLW ISSUED FOR THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG WITH FCST CREST OF 11 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER POINTS IN THE JUNIATA BASIN ARE ABOVE CAUTION STAGE AND BEING MONITORED. IN THE WEST BRANCH SUSQ BASIN...THE BALD EAGLE CREEK AT BEECH CREEK STATION IS ABOVE CS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CONODOGUINET CREEK AT HOGESTOWN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL AVIATION...JUNG HYDROLOGY...STEINBUGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.