Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251131 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 731 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 615 AM UPDATE... WILL EXPAND PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FZRA ADVISORY TO COVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (HUNTINGDON...FULTON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES) AS RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE QUICKER WITH ONSET OF PRECIP. EARLIER DISCUSSION... CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING. MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT -RA ASSOCD WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SFC TEMPS AOB 32F WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA AT JST/AOO. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE BY THE TIME PCPN ARRIVES SO TAF WILL SHOW PLAIN -RA. LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 14-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AIRFIELDS. THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST. FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>026- 033>036. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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