Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 201821 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 221 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SATELLITE SHOWS VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT RETURNS...SPRINKLES...INDICATED ON RADAR. WE HAVE BEGUN HITTING CONVECTIVE TEMPS GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CU FIELD FROM CENTRAL PA WESTWARD. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS THE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER LAKES CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT INTO SERN CANADA. I DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE THE IDEA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH WESTERNMOST AREAS BEING MOST FAVORED. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED TOWERS DEVELOP AS THE DAY HEATS UP...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPINGUP ON A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AS IS USUALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING MONDAY...HOWEVER A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES ARE ALSO MADE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RETREATING WESTERLIES...POSSIBLY PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE 09Z SREF SHOWS CAPES CREEPING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE ON SOME CONVECTION POPPING IN THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE STEADILY WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WHICH IS ACTUALLY A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEAKLY TROFFY TO ZONAL WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW LOCATED NORTH OF U.S. BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEAK RETURN FLOW...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS MON-EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/. A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEAK IN THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE. A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING WEAK WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL PEAK WED-THU AHEAD OF A WAVE THAT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK...AND THEN SLIDES THROUGH ON A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK. DAILY PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED...AND PEAK ON THU...BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIFT POLEWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BFD CONTINUES TO STUBBORNLY HOLD ONTO A MARGINAL CEILING...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION HAS GONE VFR AND WILL REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS INTO THE EVENING. LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AND WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY A.M MVFR FOG. WDLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WED-THU...COLD FROPA LATER WED-WED NIGHT SHOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRI...NO SIG WX && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE

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