Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230745 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 245 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MIDWEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. THE LINGERING ISOLATED NEAR FREEZING MESONET TEMPS OVER CLINTON AND LYCOMING COUNTY ARE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING CURRENTLY...WHILE RADAR INDICATES LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THAT AREA. TEMPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN PA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AS LLVL CONVERGENCE IS LOST WITH THE EXIT AND DISSIPATION OF LLVL JET INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP GOOD SRLY FLOW GOING. EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE 30S SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RUN AT 50F ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE SNOWPACK IN THE FAR NW COULD THEN KEEP THEM IN THE 40S. THE HEIGHTS RISE FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE BRINGS HIGHER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A WIDESPREAD. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG TOUGH IN THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. PHASING OF SPLIT-STREAM ENERGY WILL YIELD A DEEP 980MB LOW /-3 TO -4 STD MSLP/ LIFTING NWD THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO SERN CANADA ON MONDAY...TRACKING TO OUR WEST. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MAINLY SUN NGT. THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. SURGE OF WARMER AIR /850MB TEMPS AOA 10C/ WILL BRING HIGHS ON MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 55-65F RANGE...PUSHING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND FINISHING ABOUT 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL. WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS FROPA MONDAY NIGHT USHERS BACK IN COOLER AIR AND RETURN OF WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN COLDER TO BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING AND ESP THE WEEKEND AS THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING PERSISTENCE OF THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. FINALLY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE WRN ATLC DURING THE WED-THU TIME PERIOD. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MSTR SHIELD MAY CONTAIN SNOW. SOLUTIONS FROM THE 12Z SAT SUITE COMING IN WITH SIMILAR TRENDS TO THE 00Z SUITE...BOTH UNFORTUNATELY WITH MIXED SOLUTIONS. GEFS LARGELY FOCUSED ON A MOSTLY OFFSHORE STORM TO AFFECT THE FISHES...WHILE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD INLAND SNOWFALL IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT... ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS AREAS AND WILL DO SO INTO THE EARLY AM. CURRENTLY ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR ADN SHOULD REMAIN SO...EXPECT KBFD...WHICH COULD REPORT SUB VFR CONDS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS. NEAR SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS...BUT GROUND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING COULD STILL LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON GROUND SURFACES. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FOR A SHORT TIME OVERNIGHT AS THE RAIN HAS MOISTENED UP THE LOWER ATMOS. LLWS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE LLWS WILL FADE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES..ESPECIALLY AT BFD AND JST...AFTER 00Z. LLWS WILL RETURN AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 01 TO 05Z. OUTLOOK... MON...MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR ELSEWHERE. WED AND THUR...MVFR/IFR POSS EAST. VFR ELSEWHERE.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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