Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 180000 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 700 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will slide east across the commonwealth tonight and Saturday. An extended period of mild weather will extend through this weekend into most of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Early evening IR loop showing cirrus spilling over ridge into northern Pa. All model guidance indicates this area of high clouds will lift northeast of Pa later tonight. Despite a mostly clear sky, it should be relatively mild for February, as southerly flow and WAA develop on west side of departing surface ridge. Most of central Pa should bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s late this evening, with readings likely rising toward dawn across the Allegheny Plateau. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure ridge will flatten slightly as it moves from the Middle Atlantic coast to the offshore waters on Saturday. This will bring mild westerlies across the commonwealth bringing a surge in temperatures and a lovely February afternoon. Highs should eclipse 60F across much of southern and southeastern PA...with low to mid 50s expected over a large part of central and even north central PA. The far north should top out near 50F Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The mild temperatures will continue through the extended forecast as no cold air push in sight. The warmest readings will come on Sat/Sun and again from Wed-Fri. High temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures mainly above freezing. A very weak cold front will push across the region Sat night. However, it has little to no mid level moisture to work with, so may see a light shower from the Laurels across the southern tier, but otherwise no precipitation is expected. Rather strong ridge builds in for early next week. Surface ridge axis splitting the region will bring a bit of northerly/ northeast flow to eastern sections, suppressing temps a bit (but still remaining well above average). Weak system slides by to the north Tue night, and brings quick chance for showers. Flow turns SW by Wed as temps rebound. Pattern becomes more amplified late week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase late week, with warm front lifting through Thu into Fri - bringing increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Mainly clear outside, just a few clouds northwest of the area as of 7 PM. Expect mid and high clouds to be on the increase tonight and early Saturday, as strong warm advection occurs. The source region of the airmass for late Saturday is around Denver this afternoon. Wind fields will be on the increase later tonight, and winds most likely will not mix down to the ground east of the mountains until later Saturday morning. Thus have LLWS in the TAF package. Should be a mild day on Saturday, as plus 8 degree C air is fcst to be over the lower Great Lakes by 00Z Sunday. Had a warm spell late February last year, temperatures got well into the 60s. There could be a brief shower early Sunday, as a weak secordary wind shift line moves across the region. Outlook... Sun...MVFR cigs psbl NW 1/3. -RA psbl near PA/MD border in the morning. Mon-Tue. VFR/No sig wx during the day. MVFR at night with chc shra. Wed...MVFR early with chc shra.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Martin

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