Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 190938 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 538 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Periods of rain will last into early Friday. A few strong storms are possible Thursday. The weekend appears to start dry but probably ends wet for most of the area. Temperatures will fluctuate through the weekend with the warmest days on Thursday and Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WAA/isentropic lift associated with increasingly moist west- southwest low level jet will promote widely scattered light rain showers today. The latest radar already shows showers approaching/reaching the Laurel Highlands and tracking just south of Mason-Dixon line. Thickening clouds and shower activity will keep temps cooler than previous days in the mid 50s to low 60s. A frontal boundary pushing southeast across the eastern Great Lakes should provide a better focus for showers across NW PA into the evening. It will stay relatively mild tonight under cloudy skies with lows mainly in the low- mid 50s. HIRES models and ensembles appear to be signaling potential for locally heavy QPF/1+ inch rainfall amounts from NE Ohio into W PA early tonight where elevated frontal convection may train parallel to to the WSW low level flow along the boundary. Made manual adjustments to POP/QPF fields based on a blend of HIRES models and SSEO/NCAR meso ensembles.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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*A few strong to severe storms are possible late Thursday afternoon and evenin across the NW Alleghenies. SPC expanded D2 MRGL risk area further into NW PA on Thursday. Latest model data shows 500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE developing by the afternoon as low pressure/trailing cold front track east across lower MI and the Upper OH Valley. Max POPs are Thursday night over the northern tier based on multi-model/ensemble blend. PWATs drop off quickly behind the front with conditions drying out from west to east into Friday morning.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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POP trend continues downward from NW to SE on Friday as drier air spreads east across the area. Confidence is increasing for a mainly dry second half of the day. Still expecting max temps to make a run at 80F over the LSV. Friday night into the first part of Saturday is most likely a dry period with increasing chance for rain into Saturday evening/night. There is uncertainty with the northern extent of pcpn shield associated with low pressure tracking east-northeast through the TN Valley and across the southern Appalachians. Better model agreement with this cycle allows for increasing confidence in the main pcpn window from roughly 00z Sun to 00z Mon with early next week now looking drier than previously fcst. Temps cool off over the weekend before rebounding through early next week.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Gusty southerly flow will continue to gradually strengthen over the next 12-18 hours. As moisture increases on the southerly flow, lowering ceilings will overspread the flying area Today which will be accompanied by scattered rain showers. VFR cigs and vsbys will dominate through 12Z before conditions through the western TAF sites deteriorate between 12Z to 15Z. The central TAF sites will see MVFR cigs form through the middle of the day with the Eastern TAF sites drop to MVFR through the second half of the afternoon. Due to the moist flow and any rain showers, IFR remains probable Wednesday evening. The occasional rain showers and reduced conditions will continue through Thursday as a vigorous upper level trough drives a frontal system through the region. As the front moves through Thursday Night and Friday, we will likely see widespread showers and possible strong thunderstorms. Outlook... Thu-Fri...SHRA/TSRA. Restrictions likely. Sat...MVFR due to clouds/isold SHRA NW. No sig wx elsewhere. Sun...Widespread MVFR/IFR with rain. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...La Corte/Ceru

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