Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 201944 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS. MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY. HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND. MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WARM FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND RAIN FOR LATE SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE. DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION. ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD. COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE NOW. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 10-20KT OVERNIGHT. ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS. BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS. TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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