Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 212000 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 400 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the region late this afternoon, followed by a cooler airmass with much lower humidity. It will be very comfortable for much of the upcoming week. The next significant chance for rain won`t arrive late Thursday or Friday as a rather weak cold front slides southeast across the state. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Plume of tropical moisture (with PWATs over 2 inches), a belt of mdtly strong llvl southerly winds, and approaching height falls combined to create widespread moderate to heavy showers (that brought much of the region between 0.75-1.5 inches of rain since this morning) ahead of a cold front. The bulk of the rain showers will exit quickly east of the region over the next few hours, followed by a few hour period of rising ceiling height with just some stray light showers along and just ahead of the cold front (and within a region of broad, large scale via the RE of a 95 kt swrly upper jet). For this evening and much of the overnight across the Susq Valley and central mtns...partly cloudy, dry, and comfortably cooler air will advect in with PWATs dripping to around 0.75 inch my 12z Monday. Min temps will be in the u50s to l60s. Upper trough and associated cooler 850-500mb temps will bring a bkn-ovc dual layer of strato cu and altocu late tonight, with a few light showers possible at KJST and KBFD. Pops will only be in the 20-30 percent range, and QPF will be under 0.10 (more likely just some spotty amts in the 0.01-0.03 of an inch range). Min temps across the nrn and western mtns will be in the l-m50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Monday will seem like we`ve jumped right into a splendid very late summer/early Autumn day with refreshingly cooler temps (especially across the mtns) and low humidity. Max temps (in the u60s to l70s across the mtns, and u70s to around 80F in the Susq Valley) will be 3-9 deg F below normal for the date. NW winds averaging 8-10 kts will gust into the mid to upper teens (kts) at times during the late morning/afternoon. Bkn clouds with possibly a few sprinkles will persist across the mtns until around 16Z...with mainly sunny skies in all areas for the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cooler, drier air will advect into the region bringing a long period of precipitation-free weather through most of next week. The next period of active weather will come as an upper level trough moves into the region Thursday night into Friday. A front with +1 to 2 STD/anomalous PWATS progress through Friday. That should correspond with a passing but possibly weakening/shearing cold front. Dry air under high pressure is expected for next weekend. The week will start off cooler due to the northwesterly flow but will gradually warm as the week continues with temperatures slightly above normal through the second half of the week. What will also make this week feel cooler is the lack of humidity as dewpoints will be in the 50s through most of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Aside from some (departing) MVFR cigs and vsbys across the extreme east for the next hour...widespread VFR will be accompanied significantly drier air with excellent vsby being transported east by a 10-15 kt west - wnw breeze in the wake of a cold frontal passage late this afternoon and early this evening. Cool pool of air aloft will bring some mvfr clouds back to the NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands late tonight and they will persist through 16Z Monday. Elsewhere...expect widespread MVFR. NW-NNW sfc winds Monday could ocnly gust into the 15-18 mph range in the 15-22z period. clear skies and diminishing wind will allow for strong radiational cooling of the ground Monday night with the air/stream-river-lake temp difference exceeding 20 deg F. This will bring patchy...locally dense valley fog 09z-13z Tuesday. Outlook... Mon...Areas of morning MVFR cogs possible across the Allegheny Mtns of northern and western PA...otherwise VFR. Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog possible. Thu...Isold pm tsra impacts possible w mtns. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCCX radar was activated in order to monitor the active weather earlier today. Radome painting is not yet complete. Therefore, the radar will likely be taken off line during the benign weather stretch in the first part of this week to allow the work to be completed. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gartner EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.