Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281827 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 227 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN CONCENTRATED IN A BAND ABOUT 120 MILES WIDE FROM THE NW MOUNTAINS DOWN TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING INTO THE NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAINING BEHIND OVER THE AREA...SO THE PROSPECTS OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING REMAIN DIM. THE OCCASIONAL RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE COOL AIR JUST NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF A FAIRLY HEALTHY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AS WE REMAIN COOL AIR DAMMED...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR THUNDER WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY...IN THE 50S OR SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID ELSEWHERE. MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS I HAVE SEEN LATELY. INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE AREA OF RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLYING AREA INTO THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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