Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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850 FXUS61 KCTP 211052 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 652 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of rain will cover western and central portions of the state today...while intially dry conditions over the southeast are replaced by a chance of showers later today. Showers will decrease tonight...but unsettled conditions will continue into the weekend with windy and much colder weather expected on Saturday and Saturday night. The first bout of lake effect and upslope rain and snow showers will persist into Saturday night...before drying and improving conditions arrive on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Significant flooding continues from southern Centre County through the Lycoming Valley where locally 6 to 7"+ of rain fell in less than 4 hours overnight. Water rescues have continued through the pre dawn hours...and there have been reports of rock and mudslides in Lycoming County and some communities remain under water. The heavy training rainfall has come to an end over the flood area...but additional showers are moving through the area...and steady rain of lesser intensity will spread east later this morning and this afternoon and bring an additional half inch to inch across Lycoming Valley. Steady rain will become more showery late this afternoon across the west and north. Expect the heaviest rain today to fall over the west and north...where Flood Watches remain in effect...and widespread 1-2"+ are expected. Highs will range from the lower 50s northwest to the mid to upper 70s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Cold conveyor belt persists across PA tonight with homogenous showers spread throughout the commonwealth. POPs will be highest across the west and north...and lowest across the southeast thanks to downsloping component. A cool and unsettled day is in store Saturday as persistent northwest flow and progressively cooler boundary layer air is forced into the region. In fact 850 mb temps remain below 0 throughout the day throughout central PA...and we`ll certainly be looking at a few flurries mixing in with any shower spritzes in the afternoon and evening over the higher terrain of the northwest and northern mountains. Maxes will range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower to middle 50s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Anomalous upper level trough will close off and take on a negative tilt early in the period, with a deepening coastal surface low tracking from southern New England north and west into eastern Quebec. A seasonably cold and brisk northwest flow will grip the area early this weekend with lake effect and orographic rain and snow showers likely over the Northwest Mtns and Laurel Highlands into Saturday night. There is still a low risk for coating into Saturday night with accums very hard to come by during the daylight hours this early in the season. 25-35 mph wind gusts will add an additional blustery chill to below normal temps. GFS/EC/CMC all show a fast-moving low diving through the Great Lakes and Northeast into early next week. There is better agreement with this system embedded in the WNW flow aloft passing to the north of the area with max POPs over the far northern tier. This feature will reinforce the cold air aloft at least into Tuesday before strong warm advection commences through midweek. The models show a low near the Great Lakes by the end of the period with some hints a at a cold air damming pattern at low levels with high pressure retreating into New England. Overall not much pcpn expected Mon-Wed. Temperatures will be noticeably colder by the weekend with highs in the low 40s to mid 50s on Saturday. Expect some moderation on Sunday followed by a steady to cooling trend with readings averaging near to below normal through next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Adjusted 06Z TAF package for current radar. UNV and IPT near the back edge of the heavier showers and storms. Another hour or so for heavy storms. Next batch of rain later tonight into Friday will be in the form of more of the way of rain, instead of showers and storms. Rain could linger into Friday evening, so did not try to end rain too fast in 06Z TAFS. The convective type of rain we had so far will give way to widespread showers and lower ceilings and visibilities later tonight into Friday, as a cold front moves into the area. Front will be slow to move east of the area before late Friday. Outlook... Sat...Scattered showers with restrictions NW. Brisk NW wind. Sun...No sig wx. Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW. Tue...No Sig Wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ004>006- 010-011-017-024-033-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/La Corte NEAR TERM...DeVoir/La Corte/Tyburski SHORT TERM...DeVoir/La Corte LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.