Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 171743 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 143 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING LATER ON SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PERIOD WITH A BRIEF WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WILL LEAVE THE PATHY VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE TOO WIDE SPREAD BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL...INTO THE 40S AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND JUST SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BY QUITE COLD WITH FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLDEST VALLEYS...AND A FROST ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PA FOR FRIDAY MORNING ON THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE HIGH RETREATS TO OUR EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FRIDAY. IT WILL BE DRY. THIS MAY SET UP COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION SATURDAY. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN SYSTEMS WILL BE TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH A SURGE OF 1 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES. AT THIS TIME THE RETREATING HIGH AND DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MOISTURE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY CHANGE BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY INDICATED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS SUNDAY PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE GEFS QPF PDF IMPLIES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN WEST AND INTO EVENING IN THE EAST. VERY LIGHT RAIN INDICATED IN THE GEFS. THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS CAUSES THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TO INDICATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. NO GOOD FOCUS FOR ANY RAIN AND THE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH PERHAPS THURSDAY. SO OVERALL...OTHER THAN THE FRONTAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE A COOL DRY PERIOD MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD CHANGE SHOULD AN UNRESOLVED SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSLATE TO A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS IS PROBABLE THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NW MTNS AND THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ. SO LNS ARE MDT ARE POSSIBLE MVFR AND BFD POSSIBLE IFR. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH. SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...GRUMM AVIATION...ROSS

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