Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241127 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 727 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY BRINGING WET WEATHER TO PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A BRIGHT EARLY SPRING DAY IS IN PROGRESS AS OF 7AM...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE LURKING TO OUR WEST AND WILL MAKE INROADS INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WE WILL HOWEVER BE DRY AND MILDER THAN WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER QUICKLY FROM THE CHILLY MORNING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE L60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED GUSTY WIND...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN PA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AOA 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER WEST. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE MISS VALLEY. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA TONIGHT...AS ALL 00Z GUIDANCE KEEPS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOC W/SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE AREA. GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA OF A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT WITH NO PRECIP INDICATED IN THE PLUMES THRU 12Z. RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM A LIGHT WIND AND STILL RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE U20S IN THE COOL SPOTS OF THE N MTNS...TO THE U30S ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS/SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHRA TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HAVE RAMPED POPS UPWARD TO NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE W MTNS AND S TIER COUNTIES BASED ON 00Z GEFS AND OPER MDL RUNS. ALTHOUGH WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS...THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING FRI NIGHT AS OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A SHRA IN SPOTS. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING OMEGA BLOCK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH UPPER LOWS OVR THE PLAINS AND EAST OF NEW ENG...WHILE PA IS IN A REGION OF RIDGING/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN. HOWEVER...OUR DRY WX IS LIKELY TO COME TO AN END LATER NEXT WEEK...WHEN BULK OF MDL DATA DRAWS UPPER LOW EASTWARD TOWARD PA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO DRAW A PLUME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD PA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE BEGUN TO RAMP UP POPS TUE INTO WED...WHEN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO OVERRUN WARM FRONT SOUTH OF PA. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A GUSTY NW WIND WILL REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THUR EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG IN THIS REGION AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RH/S WILL EASILY MEET CRITERIA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ042-051>053-057>059-065-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...GARTNER FIRE WEATHER...FITZGERALD/GARTNER

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