Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290343 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1143 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the eastern seaboard later today setting up a warmer and more humid airflow beginning on Thursday. A cold front on Saturday will bring a brief break in the humidity. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Variable mid to high clouds will continue to stream overhead overnight...but with little impact on sensible weather across central PA. With surface high pressure drifting east of the area...it will be another comfortable sleeping night with dewpoints still only in the 50s...and lows ranging from the lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... By Thursday the eastern US will be under a broad upper ridge, but close to the southern edge of the main westerlies. A warmer and more humid airmass will begin to advect into the region between the offshore high and a low moving north of the Gr Lakes. Deterministic models develop a fair amount of CAPE and mid level lapse rates are forecast in the 6-7C/km range, so an afternoon shower or thunderstorm is likely in a few spots. SPC Day 2 convective outlook has northwestern third of CWA in a marginal risk for severe and remainder of CWA in general thunder. Coverage looks to be isolated to scattered at best and will likely be in the mid afternoon into the evening hours. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Not a lot of change from yesterday. Main thing was to edge POPS down a little on Friday. Cold front moves toward the area on Friday, but holds off to later Saturday. Thus highest chc of showers and storms will be on Saturday. Left Sunday Night into Monday Night dry. However, the cold front will not be very far to the south. Some hints of a chance of showers and storms next Tuesday into Wed. Perhaps Thursday, but left Thursday mainly dry, given other recent guidance. Was thinking yesterday that we see more typical temperature and dewpoints for early summer later this week into next week. Still seeing that, but now a a cool down toward the end of next week. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will continue to provide generally VFR conditions through Friday. The only exception will be some localized fog overnight tonight and again early Friday. This looks to be too isolated to include in TAFs at this point, but may need to be considered for Friday. Additionally, some isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm activity will be possible Thursday afternoon into Friday across the northern third of Central Pennsylvania, but again, with low coverage any prolonged restrictions is not anticipated. Have included VCSH in the KBFD after 18z, but kept other TAF locations dry through 00z Friday. Better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday. .OUTLOOK... Thu-Fri...Isolated/Scattered PM SHRA/TSRA over Northern PA. Sat...VFR but with PM SHRA/TSRA impacts possible. Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Gartner SHORT TERM...La Corte/Gartner LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Jung

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