Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 052356 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 756 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
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ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS ALL THAT`S SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA THUS FAR TONIGHT. UPPER LOW SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS WILL INCREASINGLY FOCUS SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST PA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PA. THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...BUT LIGHT SPRITZES OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND INITIALLY A PUSH OF SOME WARMER AIR ON SAT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN A LOW PROB OVER NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. THE OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. TROUGH EVENTUALLY COMES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN LARGE. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE LOCAL FLYING AREA IS VFR AS OF 8PM. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MOISTURE SURGING WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS LIKELY...ESP AT NIGHT. SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS. SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE

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