Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 250655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN AREAS. A
RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER
PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING MAINLY DRY
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE FAR ERN PART OF THE CWA SHORTLY
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING SEVERAL DEG F IN ITS WAKE AND THE CHC OF
SHOWERS DECREASING TO NEAR ZERO.

ELSEWHERE...A LIGHT WEST TO SW BREEZE...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND T/TD SPREADS VARYING FROM A FEW...TO AS MUCH AS
8-10 DEG F WILL SUPPORT JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF NRN PENN BETWEEN 8-12Z TODAY.

ACROSS THE NW MTNS...THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT/EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDS WILL ADVECT OVER WARREN
COUNTY AFTER 09Z...REACHING THE RT 219 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 10-12Z.
SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS WARREN CTY AROUND
DAWN TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A SLGHT CHC FOR -SHRA ACROSS
THAT PORTION OF THE CWA.

LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM AROUND 50F ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR SE...NEAR KLNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HERE...WITH ONLY THE NW MTNS
REMAINING SUSCEPTIBLE TO A FEW LAKE EFFECT -SHRA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS ACROSS LK ERIE. GEFS 8H TEMP
ANOMALIES ARE 1-2 SD BLW CLIMO. WHILE THE NW MTNS WILL BE DEALING
WITH MCLDY SKIES TUESDAY...DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD YIELD A SUNNY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 8C- 12C
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE U60S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
MTNS...TO NR 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LATE WEEK WX
WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A COOL/DRY STRETCH OF WX WED-FRI.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF A FEW PM SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED-
THU...RESULTING FROM COOL POOL ALOFT CENTERED JUST NORTH OF PA.
ANY RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MODERATING TEMPS AND CONTINUED DRY WX EXPECTED SAT...AS UPPER LOW
OVR SE CANADA LIFTS OUT AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM UP SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH SLIPS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPS. GEFS/ECENS BOTH
INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED INTRODUCED THE CHC OF PM
SHOWERS THAT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW JUST EAST OF CWA...WITH LAST REMAINING SHOWERS
EXITING SCHUYLKILL CO BY 07Z. DRIER AIR WORKING IN WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S NOW IN MOST LOCALES...WITH SUSQ VALLEY READINGS
BEGINNING THEIR FALL THROUGH THE 60S ATTM. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY FOG
POSS.

INCREASINGLY COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF LARGE TROUGH
ALOFT EDGING TOWARD THE NW MTNS WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDINESS/SCT SHOWERS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE WEST TO 8-10MPH WITH
GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.

GENERALLY VFR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MVFR STRATOCU COULD
IMPACT KBFD-KJST AS NIGHT PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHOWERS NW MTNS. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX
EXPECTED.

THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...RXR


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