Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 122059
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
459 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and associated upper-level trough are moving
through our region this evening. Cooler and drier air should
replace the humid air mass. A weak trough will dominate our
weather most of the week as a ridge builds over the southern US.
A surge of warmer moister air is likely Thursday with this
system and ahead of a cold front. The best chance of widespread
rain may be Friday with the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
On going strong to severe storms in southeastern Pennsylvania
should exit our region around 6 PM this evening. Still two deep
storms with very cold tops on the GOES-16 IR.

Farther west the front is tracking across central Pennsylvania
and will trigger a few weaker showers and thunderstorms this
evening which should diminish shortly after sunset.

Overnight should see drier and cooler air move into the region.
The residual moisture from the rain will produce patchy AM fog
and the resulting early AM areas of low clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Should be an super mid-August day with low humidity and high
temperatures mainly in the 70s to lower 80s.

Not much else worth saying so ENJOY!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure moves to our east Monday and the moisture
values stay quite low with PW near normal most of the weak. We
start the week in a mean trough and a ridge is forecast to
build over the southeast Wed into Thursday.

Thus, models tend to show only slight to chance POPS Monday-
Wednesday. Traditional afternoon convection due to instability.
Nothing to focus on.

As the ridge builds in PA should warm up and a surge of higher
PW air is forecast to move into our region Th-Fri timeframe. The
NAEFS and GEFS show a trough and cold front move into the region
late Thursday into Friday. This could trigger showers and
storms. Not surprisingly the GEFS and CMC-EFS tend to show best
chance of rain Friday timeframe with the front.

Timing of front will change and overall not a very wet week.
Temperatures mainly near to perhaps a tad below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will prevail with local restrictions possible associated
with scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms into
early evening over my SERN terminals.

Expect areas of fog to develop overnight, with the fog burning
off by mid morning Sunday.


.OUTLOOK...

Mon...Mainly VFR, but scattered SHRA in the afternoon/evening.

Tue-Wed...No significant weather.

Thu..Mainly VFR with scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ056-057-
059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Grumm
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...Watson/Grumm
AVIATION...La Corte



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