Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 191833
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
233 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will shift east across the Great Lakes,
pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania today. The upper
trough will swing through the area during the middle of the
week, then lift out by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The line of severe storms at 230 PM was across our southeastern
counties and moving east. Good news it will all be to our east
by 330 PM. We have had numerous reports of wind damage, power
outages, and rotating clouds from York to Lebanon Counties this
afternoon.

Farther west the cooler air has taken hold.

Used the HRRR to tweak temperatures, dew points and winds and
modify the POPS. Highest POPS are now in our extreme southeast.

Most areas will be mostly to partly cloudy. GOES-16 shows good
breaks in clouds over western and soon central areas behind the
front.

In the southeast be mindful of severe weather threats for
another hour or so.

Should be a nice overnight. Cooler air will allow most to turn
off the AC for a few days rest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Noticeably cooler in central and eastern areas. Temperatures
should run a bit below normal.

Unstable aloft could triggers some showers, mainly in the
mountains of western and northwestern PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
One last day under influence of upper trough on Wednesday, with
relatively cool weather and a low chance of showers, then trough
lifts out. 00Z NAEFS showing an area of low pressure passing
north of Pa late in the week. GEFS plumes support a chance of
showers/storms with warm front passage Thursday or Thursday
night, then a better chance of shower/storms Friday, as trailing
cold front pushes into the area.

Bulk of med range guidance currently leaning toward dry weather
Saturday, followed by possible showers/storms by late in the
weekend, as another sfc low tracks north of Pa and trailing
cold front tracks across Pa.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A strong front triggered showers and severe thunderstorms across
our region today. If flying be mindful of strong and severe
thunderstorms in southeastern PA. Mainly west of KMDT and KLNS
now. Check radar if flying east of these locations.

The front and the IFR/MVFR conditions will move east.

We could have patch MVFR in valleys and areas where it rained
today. But otherwise mainly VFR.

Should be VFR on Tuesday with some scattered showers in the
mountains from KJST to KBFD.

.OUTLOOK...

Tue...Sct SHRA NW. No sig wx.

Wed...Mainly dry with VFR conditions.

Thu...Sct SHRA and storms...mainly N.

Fri...Sct showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for PAZ059-
064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Grumm/La Corte
NEAR TERM...Grumm/La Corte
SHORT TERM...Grumm/La Corte
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...La Corte



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