Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 141043
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER MILD DAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WESTERN LOCATIONS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY...BUT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS...WE SHOULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF YESTERDAY`S HIGHS
IN MOST AREAS.

THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE DAY THE BETTER THE CHANCE WILL BE FOR
A STRAY SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL
SPLASH AROUND A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
SREF/GEFS EVEN SHOW A DECENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLEPRECIP...THOUGH
THE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN ABOUT A TENTH ARE PRETTY SMALL. THE
HIGH RES NMM/ARW AND HRRR ALL KEEP THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. THEY ALSO AGREE ON GENERATING A
LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING MY WESTERN ZONES BY
AROUND NIGHTFALL. SPC DOES NOT OUTLOOK US FOR SEVERE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...I
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION INDICATED BY THE HIGH RES MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO RUN OUT OF GAS AS THEY
HEAD EAST AFTER THE SUN GOING DOWN. REGARDLESS WE WILL SEE
OCCASIONALRAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MEANS THERE WILL BE
A BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW. IF THE FRONT IS
FAST...LOWS OVER THE NW COULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN I CURRENTLY
PORTRAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE SAME
BIG TEMP BUST POTENTIAL OF TONIGHT. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS SHOW A
VERY TIGHT PACKING OF THE COLD AIR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO SMALL
TIMING PROBLEMS WILL MEAN RELATIVELY BIG TEMP SWINGS AS THE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST.

A COUPLE OF OTHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND TO FORM...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH IF ANY
SNOW MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE ON THE COLD AIR SIDE OF THE WAVY COLD
FRONT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND SWINGS
THROUGH...WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST THESE FRONTS TAKE ON STRONG
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS INCLUDING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION AND
LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS PROGGED 850-500MB WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 45-60KT MIX DOWN IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.

THEN THE...SNOW...YUK! COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD CAUSE RAIN TO MIX WITH/CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...I AM THINKING THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MEANING THE
CHANGE- OVER WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART
WHICH IS USUALLY VITAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT A COATING TO A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND ROAD CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
IN THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN OUR HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GROWING SEASON TECHNICALLY STARTS TUESDAY OVER MY SERN ZONES.
AFTER SOME COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE AGREED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT THE LOWS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT
TODAY.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LEAVING THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING LEADING THE WAY TO A FEW FAIR BUT ABNORMALLY CHILLY DAYS
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS/SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN US IN RESPONSE TO FCST TROUGHING OVER THE
N-CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A DRY AIRMASS KEEPING CONDITIONS
VFR. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST...NEAR LAKE MI.
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS THE MAIN PLAYER AT THE CURRENT
TIME...AS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONT IS NOT REAL
ACTIVE AT THIS POINT.

VAD WINDS STILL 35 TO 40 KNOTS. HAVE LLWS IN TAFS.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNSET INTO
TUE. SOME CHC OF THUNDER...BUT MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALSO DEWPOINTS NOT FCST
TO BE THAT HIGH...AND THE THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE EAST OF OUR AREA.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED FROM TUE AFT...INTO WED AM.
VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THUS RAIN WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.

WED INTO FRIDAY LOKKS OK AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...
-TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS...ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS.
.WED-THU...VFR.
.FRI...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN



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