Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 240037
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
837 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AN INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MSTR AND RELATIVLY LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



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