Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 291500
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH A HAZY HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY
DECENT CHANCE THAT STATE COLLEGE WILL HAVE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN 2 YEARS. HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON
SOUTHERN CWA RIDGES AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS
STILL WARM AND THIS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER AT LNS AND UNV AND WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL
START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU


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