Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 181858
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
258 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING LATER ON SUNDAY.
OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER CU SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING IN THE
FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE-LIMITED COLD FRONT
ACROSS SRN NY STATE THIS AFTN HAS MADE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SWD
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO THE STATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CU WILL BE THE RULE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE
STATE.

TONIGHT WILL BY QUITE COLD WITH SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COLDEST VALLEYS ALONG THE NORTHERN PA BORDER. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HOWEVER LINGER ALONG THE NRN
BORDER. ALSO..WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NORTH OF
PA...ENOUGH EASTERLY GRADIENT MAY REMAIN TO KEEP WINDS FROM GOING
CALM. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE BORDERLINE
TEMP/DEWPOINTS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST UP NORTH ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE
MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS...HAVE DECIDED TO RUN WITH THE MENTION OF SCATTERED FROST IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY...SFC WINDS WILL TURN SERLY/SRLY HELPING DAYTIME TEMPS TO
RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONTINUED
RAIN FREE..MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY FALL-FEELING DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARMER AIR AND HIGHER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND ON INCREASING SW FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
/RETREATING TO THE EAST/. AT THE SAME TIME...TROUGH BEGINS TO
CARVE INTO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES
PA FOR SUN/MON. THE RESULT WILL BE A PAIR OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAYS SAT-SUN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND TAKING
A RUN AT 80F IN THE SE. WE/LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM OUR RUN OF
CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AS LOWS REMAIN WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A
PERIOD OF LOW/STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR NORTH...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PA SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS
THROUGH DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE
WETTEST WITH QPF POTENTIALLY UP TO 0.25...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS OVER THE REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MENTION FOR SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W CWA. COOLER
AIR ON NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH
MONDAY/S HIGHS ABOUT 8-10F COOLER AND TUESDAY FALLING ANOTHER 5F
OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S MON NIGHT...WITH
SOME MID/UPPER 30S POSS IN THE NORTHERN MTNS TUE NIGHT.

TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK
IN. AS FLOW AGAIN TURNS AROUND TO THE SW...REGION SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMUP FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOISTURE-LIMITED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SRN NY STATE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS PA THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO LATE THIS EVENING. THEN ONCE
AGAIN...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL REDUCE FLYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REINTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH.
SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE.
SUN...SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS W MTNS.
MON - TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER



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