Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 141858
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
258 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably mild conditions will last into the weekend.
Widespread showers move through central Pennsylvania tonight and
Friday, followed by drying and cooler conditions for Saturday
and Saturday night. Another cold front brings sharply cooler
conditions from Sunday through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Another afternoon and evening of spring-like warmth across
Central PA with high temps warming into the low to middle 70s
for most areas along and south of I-80, and upper 60s to near 70
north. These are 20+ degrees above normal for mid March. GOES
imagery shows thick cloud cover now crossing the OH/PA border
with a diminishing area of light showers pushing through the NW
Mountains, which which could temper the warming for the
northern tier. Elsewhere, highs in the lower to middle 70s will
be common before the clouds arrive. RH will also be on the
increase by late afternoon as moisture starts to increase ahead
of a shearing shortwave trough cresting the broad and flattening
5H ridge over the eastern CONUS.

A weak surface low tracks from northern OH to the Finglerakes
region this afternoon and evening, with convergence along 40kt
850 mb jet and increasing deep layer moisture and spreading
showers into the NW Mtns this evening, and points east and
southeast overnight. A few hundred J/Kg of elevated CAPE should
support a few rumbles of thunder surviving into western parts of
the CWA later this evening, the remnants of Thu aftn deep
convection over the Ohio Valley. It will be another very mild
night with the min temp departure from climo (+25-30) > the max
temp departure from climo (+20-25F).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model guidance tracks the surface low through New England and
off the coast by Friday night. A band of rain showers along
the trailing cold front will press southeast through the day
with max POPS and possible rumbles of thunder in the southern
tier. The northern tier will dry out by Friday morning after
parts of the NW Mountains see the highest amounts from this
system (in excess of 0.33"), while generally a tenth of an inch
or less over the Lower Susq River Valley. The showers will
decrease by mid to late afternoon over the southeast. Surface
ridging and drier air working into the region behind the
aforementioned cold front should translate to drier and much
cooler conditions with breaking clouds Friday night into
Saturday.

Temps on Friday trend 5 to as much as 15 degrees cooler day
over day with the largest 24hr max delta T`s over the NW mtns.
Despite being 10F to 15F cooler, highs on Friday still range
from the mid 50s north to upper 60s southeast, which is still
more than 10-15F above average for mid March. The cooling trend
continues into the weekend (more- so over the south central and
southeastern valleys) with forecast max temps in the 50-60F
range. Nighttime temps will also be considerably cooler than
recent nights with fcst lows in the 35-45 range both Friday and
Saturday night.

Latest model guidance is a little faster with the next cold
front with odds for showers ramping up across the Alleghenies
into Sunday morning. A strong cold front crosses the region
later on bringing a return to chilly but seasonable temps to
end the weekend and start the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Noticably cooler, near seasonal temps, appear likely Sunday/Sun
night. The bulk of medium range guidance then tracks a potent
upper level shortwave and cold front through the region Monday.
A round of snow showers/squalls could accompany the passage of
this feature Monday. Strong large scale forcing, steep lower
tropospheric lapse rates and even some cape are evident in some
models with the fropa, signaling a potential of squalls.

Below normal temperatures and lake effect snow showers appear
likely Tue/Wed, as upper level troughing and a cold northwest
flow over the Grt Lks remains in place. Fair weather and
moderating temperatures appear likely by next Thursday, as the
upper trough begins to lift out.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clouds will continue to thicken throughout the day ahead of a
surface low pressure system. VFR conditions are expected through
out the day. While most of the area will likely remain dry
through 00Z Friday, showers will be possible across the west
during the late afternoon and evening. Surface winds and
elevated instability begins to increase towards 00Z thus a few
rumbles of thunder will be possible for a few hours in NW PA.

LLWS will impact Central PA 00Z Friday through the overnight
hours as a 850mb LLJ passes overhead increasing winds above the
surface. Rain will likely overspread the area from NW to SE
through the early morning hours on Friday. Lower visibilities
and ceilings are like to occur where rain showers are heaviest.
Scattered rain showers will remain in the area for most of the
day Friday before clearing out by early Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Fri...Showers and MVFR cigs/vsby likely (70%). Thunder is
possible NW.

Sat...Breezy, MVFR cigs poss NW.

Sun...Rain showers with MVFR cigs NW half. Some snow could mix
in during the late afternoon across the northwest,

Mon...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front with rain
showers possible across the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Tue...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19
at 11:06 PM EDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/RXR
AVIATION...Bowen/RXR
CLIMATE...Steinbugl


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