Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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393
FXUS61 KCTP 181036
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
536 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley this morning will build east
across Pennsylvania later today. An anomalous upper level ridge
will build off the east coast next week, with a dying cold
front pushing into the state on Wednesday, then returning north
as a warm front late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upslope flow will yield some lingering flurries over the
northwest mountains or patchy -fzdz over the Laurel Highlands
early this morning. However, falling inversion heights should
cause any lingering light precip to end around dawn.

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build east into the
region later today, supplying fair and mild weather. Upstream
satellite imagery and model soundings indicate there will be
some lingering stratocu over the Alleghenies through about
midday. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies expected. Mixing down
ensemble mean 925mb temps of around 0C translate to expected max
temps from the upper 30s over the high terrain of the
Alleghenies, to the mid 40s over the Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight as a
warm front approaches from the Ohio Valley. A developing
southerly breeze should keep temps from falling much tonight,
especially over the western portion of the forecast area.
However, lingering snow cover and lighter winds over the eastern
counties will likely allow readings to dip a bit below guidance
with min temps between 25-30F east of the Susq River.

Model guidance indicating a good chance of light rain Monday, as
warm front lifts into western Pa, while wedge of cooler air
remains trapped east of the Appalachians. Highest POPS of 90 pct
are painted across the northwest mountains, where best
isentropic lift indicated at nose of low level jet.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
All medium range guidance continues to show a building anomalous
upper ridge along the east coast next week, with central Pa
breaking into the warm sector Tue and Wed. Record high temps
appear quite possible Tue/Wed, when ensemble mean 850 temps
jump to around 12C. Even conservatively mixing to just 925mb
would support max temps between 70-75F over much of the area.

Both 00Z ECENS and NAEFS indicate a dying cold front will push
through the region Wed PM, accompanied by a chance of showers.
This boundary will likely stall just south of Pa before
returning north as a warm front late in the week with a renewed
chance of rain. Med range models do indicate there could be just
enough low level cold air for the potential of some fzra Thu
night or early Friday across northern Pa.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread IFR will continue at all TAF sites due to the heavy
snow bands across the region for at least the next 3 hours.
 Conditions will improve for non elevated TAF sites west to
east between 03Z to 06Z. During this timeframe, IFR is expected
but could improve to MVFR as the night continues. Conditions
should improve across eastern areas shortly after Midnight...as
the storm quickly moves out of the area. Some lower clouds and
light snow showers could linger across the central and western
areas to just after sunrise on Sunday.

Overall...not a bad day for Sunday. Lots of sun by late morning.
Winds will die down by late aft.

Some showers and lower clouds next week...mainly for a brief
time Monday...and later on Wednesday...but much of the time will
be dry with VFR conditions. Also on the mild side.

Outlook...

Mon...Restrictions return with some light rain.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions likely in rain showers, mainly NW at
times...and late Wed elsewhere.

Thu...Clearing north. Still a chance of showers north.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Ceru/Martin



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