Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 241816
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
216 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST THRU THE AREA. LOW PRES WILL TRACK
ALONG THE NEW YORK/PA BORDER TUESDAY...PUSHING A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES COVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT-
LCLY BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE PA/NY
BORDER FROM THE FINGERLAKES WESTWARD. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS IS BEING FLATTENED
BY SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING LARGE SOUTHEAST CANADA CUTOFF...AND MID
CLOUD/HIGH CLOUD WILL FLIRT WITH N CENTRAL AREAS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENING WHILE EXTREMELY THIN HIGH CIRRUS STREAMS INTO WESTERN AND
THEN CENTRAL PA LATER ON.

SFC HIGH OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST TONIGHT.
RESULTING SSERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DIRECT SLIGHTLY MILDER
AIR INTO PA WITH LOWS PROGGED MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
ZONAL WSW FLOW FRESHENS ON MONDAY WITH A VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED.
UNUSUALLY DRY AMBIENT SOIL CONDITIONS...COUPLED WITH LACK OF GREEN
UP AND STRONG MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAXES TO OUTPERFORM GUIDANCE IN
MOST PLACES. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY COINDS ACCOMPANIED BY ENS MEAN
8H TEMPS SURGING 12C WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOWER
80S POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

INCREASING FORCING AT NOSE OF SWRLY LL JET COULD POTENTIALLY
PRODUCE SCT LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
SOME LIMITED MDL CAPE ARE INDICATED BY MON EVENING. KEPT LOW
CHANCE OF THIS MENTION FOR MON PM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAIRLY SHARP EAST/WEST...QUASI-STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS NRN PENN...OR PERHAPS SRN NEW YORK STATE
WITH A WEAKENING WAVE /OR TWO/ OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG
IT...AND CROSSING THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY.

COINCIDING WITH THE SFC WAVE AND /RATHER FLAT UPPER TROUGH/ THE
00Z GEFS SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE NEARLY EAST-WEST RIBBON OF +3-4
SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX AND NEARLY +2 SIGMA PWATS MOVING OVER
CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAMPED UP THE CHC OF SHOWERS MON
NIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS ACROSS THE N TIER...IN VICINITY OF QUASI-
STATIONARY BNDRY.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS
AND LIGHT TO MDT AMOUNTS OF QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SVR THREAT TUE AFTN ACROSS THE S COUNTIES...WHERE MDL
TIMING INDICATING THERE COULD BE ENOUGH PRE-FRONTAL HEATING TO
RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES. MODERATELY STRONG MID LVL FLOW INDICATED
BY 00Z MDLS IN ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE COULD SUPPORT ISOLD
SVR STORMS.

A PERIOD OF FAIR/COOLER WX INDICATED BY LATEST NAEFS/ECENS
WEDNESDAY...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. THE NEXT WEATHER
FEATURE EXPECTED TO BRING US SOME SHOWERS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE HEADING EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ONCE AGAIN GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT AND FLATTEN ALOFT...WITH THE
SFC WAVE STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE MISS AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY INTO THUR NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF PA...SO THE AMT OF RETURN LLVL MOISTURE
INTO PENN AND THE RISK OF THUNDER MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

AN EXAMINATION OF THE LATEST ECENS/NAEFS STILL SUPPORTS FAIR/DRY
AND SEASONABLE WX FRIDAY/SATURDAY. NOT A LOT OF CREDENCE PLACED
WITH OPER ECMWF...WHICH IS FASTER LIFTING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CHC
OF RAINFALL OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD PA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS PA TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
VERY LIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON NIGHT-TUE...SHRA DEVELOPING MONDAY EVE AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW PA.

WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



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