Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 280628
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
228 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND DRIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
11-3.9 UM IR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS SCT-BKN STRATO AND ALTO CU CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS. TEMPS WITHIN THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER ARE IN THE U50S TO
L60S.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ELSEWHERE /JUST AHEAD OF 1023 MB
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WRN PENN/...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
PLUNGE INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH WIDESPREAD RIVER/LARGE
STREAM VALLEY FOG THICKENING UP.

SFC DEWPOINTS AT PRIMARY METAR AND MESO OB SITES INDICATE THAT
TEMPS WILL COOL ANOTHER FEW-SVRL DEG F THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH
EXPECTED MINS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS UP
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE LOWER
SUSQQ VALLEY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TODAY WILL BEGIN OUR WARM UP AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO BUILD.
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING LARGE STREAM RIVER VALLEY FOG...SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT
HIGHS FROM THE 70S OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...TO THE L80S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN THURSDAY...AND
NUDGING NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTRAL PA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE RETURN OF
WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. IT SHOULD ALSO KEEP CENTRAL
PA MAINLY DRY...EXCLUDING ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCAL VFR
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE FOG BURNS OFF TO A VFR AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI EVE AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...HAGNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER



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