Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 141049
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
649 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A LONG STRETCH
OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY
TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT-BKN LAKE STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS TRAPPING LAKE
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS AND WILL KEEP LOCAL SCT-BKN SKY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS.
SLACKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW MIXING AND DISSIPATION OF THIS STRATUS BY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE POCONO PLATEAU BY 12Z MONDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING...
AND SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO COLLABORATE POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINES
FOR THESE AREAS. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA...
SHAVED BACK POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN
COLLABORATION WITH PBZ AND CLE. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CURRENTLY VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. JST
AND BFD ARE THE EXCEPTIONS. JST HAS GONE LIFR WITH BFD CURRENTLY
AT MVFR...THOUGH IFR REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. UNV HAS PATCHY
FOG THAT COULD BUILD OVER THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z...THOUGH
GENERALLY IT SHOULD DISSIPATE. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT
BY 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
OVERNIGHT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM STRATO CU/PATCHY FOG/MIST WILL
BE POSSIBLY MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TAF SITES.
THE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
AND THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED - THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU


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