Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 252025
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
325 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS EXTENDED FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PITTSBURGH AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH SOME
AREAS OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE PREVIOUS SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE STATE RATHER UNEVENTFULLY.

HIGH CLOUDS /AT THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM/
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AND
THICKENING UP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES /AND WESTERN
MTNS/ TWD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS /WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST/...TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A BIT OF GUSTINESS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LATE TODAY WILL
ABATE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AT
5-8 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND LATE
FEB SUN ANGLE SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON
FRIDAY - ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN
FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
KBGM TO KUNV AND KPIT.

LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW
STRATO CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

WNW WINDS JUST AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT WILL AVERAGE
12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE. CURRENT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BECOME WNW AND INCREASE TO
SUSTAINED 10KTS WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...ALA CORTE



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