Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 202013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
413 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST-SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAIN AREA OF PCPN IS NARROW N-S BAND EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM IPT
JUST EAST OF HGR AS OF 19Z. UNLIKE EARLIER THIS AFTN...MVMT TRENDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH HAS LIMITED HVY RNFL THREAT.
THERE ARE STILL GOING TO BE AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT
FF RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY EWD MVMT AND HIGHER FFG OVER ERN PA.
HIRES MDL CONSENSUS IS FOR ISOLD TO SCT (DISORGANIZED) SHOWERS AND
TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL ZONES THRU THE EVE AND CUT
BACK POPS TO CHC RANGE (30-50 PCT). THE LOSS OF HEATING COUPLED
WITH LACK OF LG SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT LOWER POPS AND
DIMINISHING PCPN TRENDS OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH BLYR AND LGT/VRB
WINDS EXPECT AREAS OF FOG/ST TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THU AM...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE
STATE. STEEP LPS RATES CAUSED BY COOL POOL ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS AFTN CONVECTION...ESP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. GEFS 925MB
TEMPS IMPLY ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS FROM THE
M70S TO M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

CURRENT MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS US IN A RING OF FIRE PATTERN
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENHANCE
THIS POSSIBILITY THOUGH LACK OF MOISTURE OF FRIDAY COULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION. GEFS IS SHOWING PWAT ANOMALIES ON SATURDAY AS
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. CURRENT SET UP FOCUSES THREAT ON WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA...WHERE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. DESPITE APPROACH OF
UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL
PA. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE MAY BE
ISSUES WITH AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY
FLOW OVR THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EVE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS ARE LKLY IN N-S BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
MOVG E FROM IPT-HGR LINE. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTM ARE POSSIBLE OVER
WRN-CNTRL SXNS IN ZOB SECTOR HOWEVER CVRG IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
EXPLICITLY IN TAFS. AVN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND HIGH BLYR MSTR/SFC DEWPOINTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL


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