Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 280646
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING...TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
SLOWLY DIMINISHING STRATOCU AND -SHSN PRESENT ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

MESO OB SITES SHOW THAT SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS NRN PENN
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BELOW ZERO...WITH ONE LOCATIONS JUST SE OF
COUDERSPORT AT -8F...AND A FEW OBSERVING SITES AROUND THE CITY OF
BRADFORD AT -3F AND -5F.

MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD MODIFICATION FOR HOURLY TEMPS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS ACROSS THE NORTH. MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS -9F AND EVEN
A VERY LIGHT BREEZE LEAD TO A SPECKLING OF APPARENT TEMPS AS LOW
AS -14 TO -16F. SINCE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW APPARENT TEMPS IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE.

ELSEWHERE...THE 5-10 KT SUSTAINED WIND /WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND WRN POCONOS/ WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER MIN TEMPS - IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KJST
REMAINS SUB VFR LATE THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER



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