Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 162157
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
557 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather for
much of the upcoming 7 days. Hurricane Jose could come close to
the Mid-Atlantic region Monday into Tuesday before it meanders
to the East.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A weak upper level trough extends from northeast Pa to southeast
Ohio early this evening. Widely scattered, diurnally-driven
convection ahead of this feature should dissipate with loss of
heating later this evening. An examination of latest radar
trends and model PWATs suggest the best chance of an early
evening shower will be over the Middle Susq Valley.

A calm wind and mostly clear skies should promote areas of
valley fog late tonight, similar as to what occurred this
morning. Low level moisture is higher than average for mid
September and will hold temps above seasonal norms overnight
with lows ranging from the mid 50s in the coolest valleys of the
north, to the mid 60s over the Lower Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Sunday will be a near carbon copy of today with respect to the
late morning timing of valley fog dissipation and the coverage
of isolated/scattered afternoon showers in the midst of some
modest afternoon instability. Surface based LI`s will be
slightly lower and Capes a bit higher Sunday afternoon which
could lead to a better chance of a rumble of thunder in some
spots.

High temps Sunday afternoon will be in the u70s to L80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our
weather. However, heights over our region will drop as Hurricane
Jose moves nwd and just east of the Carolina to Mid Atlantic
Coast Monday night through Tuesday night before reaching a
consensus location near the Eastern Tip of Long Island late
Wednesday morning. The eastern third to one half of our forecast
area could feel some impact in the form of gusty North to NW
winds Tuesday afternoon through Wed morning along with periods
of showers on the western periphery of the storm.

A shift of the storm to the east will reduce our chance of
showers.

As Jose moves away heights will rise and this should further dry
us out for the latter part of next week. The GEFS forecasts a
closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal
heights by next Friday and Saturday which will translate to well
above normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread VFR will continue the evening. A very weak trough
overhead will trigger isolated showers across the southern
portion of the flying area, but impacts look too isolated to
mention in terminals.

Tonight will see a return of the fairly widespread and locally
dense valley fog after midnight that will linger into mid
morning Sunday. Then isolated/scattered afternoon showers will
again be possible.

.Outlook...

Sun-Mon...Areas of A.M. fog. Mainly dry with VFR conditions.
Perhaps an isolated afternoon shower.

Tue-Wed...Mainly dry with patchy morning fog. Otherwise
primarily VFR conditions. Eastern areas may see NE winds
10-20 mph as main impacts from Jose remain off to our east.

Thu...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Grumm/Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...La Corte



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