Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 261857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT
BUT STALL OVER THE EAST. SEASONABLY WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ALONG WIND SHIFT
LINE/WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. THE FRONT
SHOULD DIP SLOWLY TO THE S/SE AS THE EVENING AND NIGHT CONTINUE.
SFC-BASED CAPES RUNNING AROUND 2000+ THIS AFTN...AND SHEAR MODEST
AT BEST. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND PLENTY OF ENERGY TO CREATE SOME
GOOD DOWNDRAFTS. DOWNDRAFT CAPES RUNNING JUST ABOVE 1000 THIS
AFTN. EXPECT AN ISOLD SVR GUST...SO ALL THE DOTS ON RADAR WILL BE
WORTHY OF INTERROGATION. PWATS HIGHER IN THE SE THAN IN THE
NORTH...BUT SLOW MOVEMENTS AND BIG CAPES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING/PUDDLES.

LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE THE STORMS...BUT SOME
SHOWERS MAY LAST ALL NIGHT IN THE SERN COS. CLEARING POSSIBLE -
BUT MAINLY OVER THE NW. FOG ALSO POSSIBLE FOR LATER TIONIGHT IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FALLS AND THE SKY CLEARS OUT OR LOW CLOUDS AT
LEAST GO AWAY DESPITE LINGERING MID CLOUDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH/CENTRAL COS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT NOT IN A HURRY AND FOCUS MAY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ.
ALL DAY. FORCING IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MAKE IT
ALMOST LIKELY TO SHOWER/STORM. THERE...BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUTY AND
WITHIN COLLABORATION TO CALL IT SCT COVERAGE. PWATS STILL RUN IN
THE 1.5-INCH RANGE MONDAY. SO THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAINERS IN THE SE. MAXES SHOULD BE RATHER HOMOGENEOUS
IN THE L-M80S...WITH THE NW IN MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHER 8H
TEMPS/MIXING POTENTIAL OVER THE SE.

AIR BEGINS TO DRY OUT IN THE SE MON NIGHT. WILL SLIDE POPS TO NILS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH
BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN U.S.

DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY STILL POP UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. NEXT CHC FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
INTERESTING FEATURE NOW BEING STRONGLY HINTED AT FOR END OF
FORECAST PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO
BROAD TROUGH. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF FOLLOWING WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED/THU WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE
MIDWEEK...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ
VLY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIND SHIFT/FRONT NOW EVIDENT WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LINE
AND WIDESPREAD SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.

CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE SCT-NMRS COVERAGE
FOR MOST OF THE TIME...SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST THRU TIME. VCSH
SHOULD BE GOOD FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
TIMES OF BEST COVERAGE MIGHT WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP FOR REDUCTIONS
DUE TO TSRA. THEREFORE...THE TAFS WILL LOOK MORE OMINOUS THAN
CONDITIONS REALLY WILL BE.

THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE QUICKLY AND SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE E/SERN TERMINALS. LOCATIONS THAT ATTEMPT
TO CLEAR OUT COULD GET DENSE FOG - BUT GENERALLY ONY IF IT RAINED
AT THAT TERMINAL. WILL JUST MENTION1-2SM BR FOR SOME SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT PLACES THAT REMAIN DRY MAY NOT FOG IN AT ALL. NOT
MUCH CLEARING IS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE NW. AT LEAST MID CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE THE CENTRAL MTNS.

LESS COVERAGE IN SHRA EXPECTED MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS AROUND
THE SERN TERMINALS WHERE THE FRONT LINGERS STILL. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MON
NIGHT. VALLEY FOG POSS INN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO



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