Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 051752 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1252 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HAVE CANCELED PART OF THE WEATHER ADVISORY...OTHERWISE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED. AS OF MID DAY THE MOST INTENSE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH LEBANON COUNTY. MORE OR LESS ON TRACK WITH RAP PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF BEST FRONTOGENTIC FORCING. HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW GRADUALLY SETTLING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...WITH A RAPID TAPERING OFF AFTER 21Z. THIS SUPPORTS FINAL SNOW TALLIES IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE ON AVERAGE. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT LEADING TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD LOWS OF ZERO OR BELOW. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS... SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM. ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN SWRLY SFC WINDS AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WIND PERSISTING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MUCH CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. COLD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID TEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS FRIDAY WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEG F FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE A MORE NORMAL NOCTURNAL TEMP DROP OF 12-15F IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THIS WEAK HIGH....CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...KEEPING THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND ONLY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES TO OUR NORTH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. SO...KEPT THE POPS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPS STAY BELOW 0C. BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD ONE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PROVE TO BE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE IMPLIES. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND OUR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET AT LEAST SLIGHTLY....ABOVE NORMAL....BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE. RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS...A GOOD SLOW WAY TO MELT SNOW WITHOUT FLOODING. THE NAEFSBC AND GEFSBC SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR NORTH OF THE BANDED PRECIPITATION THAT IS CAUSING MVR-IFR/LIFR FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LANCASTER-HARRISBURG LIKELY BEING THE LAST TO ENJOY IN THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. JST MAY BE THE EXCEPTION WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TOUGH UNDER THE UPSLOPE FLOW. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ036- 057>059-063>066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ033>035.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT AVIATION...LA CORTE

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