Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 010631 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 231 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER TODAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SVR WX AND FLOODING THREAT ENDING ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES AT 06Z...AS AXIS OF ANOMALOUS PWATS/INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST WITH LL JET. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN/TSRA ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF HARRISBURG THRU ARND 09Z IN ASSOC WITH WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP THE MID ATL COAST. LATEST NR TERM MDLS INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE EXITING THE SE COUNTIES BY ARND DAWN. WILL LIKELY ALLOW FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 07Z...AS UPSTREAM RADAR LOOP IMPLIES A STRATIFORM RAIN FOR THE SE COUNTIES WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PASSING EAST OF LANCASTER CO. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF LOWER PWAT AIR HAS RESULTED IN VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...DESPITE STRONG LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF POTENT MID LVL SHORTWAVE. NR TERM MDLS INDICATE THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... HAVE REDUCED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 12Z...AS LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. PTSUNNY SKIES AND ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 12-14C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WED FROM THE L70S NW TO M80S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY. AS THE JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF PA...THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND TSRA SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT ANY WAVERING COULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO CREEP INTO PA. THE FLOW SHOULD SHFIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER FLOW FRIDAY. THE DRY MID LEVELS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE WEEKEND PRIMARILY DRY THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DID CUT BACK ON THE SHOWERS AND FOG ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SITES AS OF 02Z. WILL ADJUST MORE ON THE 03Z TAF SET. STILL EXPECT SOME LOW CLDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME NOW. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14Z WED. OUTLOOK... THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ036- 056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.