Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221351 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 951 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN PENN LATE THIS MORNING WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET/STORMY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SMALL AREA OF HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGEHNIES AND TWD THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HRRR...RAP AND SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS AND FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 99. PERHAPS THE MOST NOTICEABLE WEATHER ELEMENT TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST TO NW WIND. BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERTICAL MIXING INCREASING TO 6-7 KFT AGL...WHICH WILL MIX DOWN WIND GUSTS AOA 25 KTS IN THE 16-22Z TIMEFRAME. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER ABOUT 10 TO 15F FROM YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN DUE TO THE STILL MILD 8H TEMPS AND MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. ONLY THE NWRN COS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE CLOUDS FROM THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRESS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND ANY CLOUDS OVER THE NRN TIER WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE TOWARD SERN PA. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER WRN PA SATURDAY MORNING. PWATS AND 8H TEMPS ARE AROUND 2 STD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMALS. THUS...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND THE AIR WILL GET COLD. JUST A HINT OF WIND MAY BE LEFT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND COULD BUST THE FROST CALL. BUT THE AIR WILL JUST GET PLAIN COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST. THE CENTRAL AND LAUREL MTNS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE 2M LEVEL...BUT FROST MAY FORM IN THE OPEN AREAS AND IN THE VALLEYS. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE NW AND A FEW COUNTIES TO THE S/E OF THAT WILL BE UNDER A FROST ADVY FOR SAT MORNING. THE COLD SPOTS OF THE SE COULD EVEN GET SOME PATCHY FROST...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVY THERE. SATURDAY STARTS SUNNY AND SHOULD STAY SUNNY...BUT THE TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BACK TO NORMALS AND WILL FALL ABOUT 5F SHORT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN TODAY...LESS THAN 10MPH. OVERALL...A BEAUTIFUL DAY TO ENJOY DOING SOMETHING OUTSIDE. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAR THE SKY AND THESE MAY THICKEN UP/LOWER ON SAT NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONTINUITY YIELD A MIN IN THE M30S AROUND KBFD FOR SUN MORNING. M30S WOULD NORMALLY MEAN A FROST IS POSSIBLE...BUT THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS COULD COUNTERACT THE COOL TEMPS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AWAY FROM MENTIONING FROST SUN MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY MARKS BEGINNING OF A ROBUST WARM-UP THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SIGNALS THIS WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS /HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY/ WILL BE OVER THE NW WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE SE. SLOW EVOLVING FLOW PATTERN GRADUALLY TAKES RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY WEAKENS...WITH JET STREAM RETREATING NORTHWARD AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL STRETCH A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MORE W-E...AND LIKELY REMAINING OFF TO OUR NW. WE/LL REMAIN ON THE VERY WARM AND MUGGY SIDE OF THE FRONT IN A VERY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN...KEEPING DAILY SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 80S SE...WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE SE. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KELM TO KBFD AT 1345Z WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 20Z...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY AN LATE MORNING/AFTN -SHRA /MAINLY ARND KJST/. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 25KTS...WHICH WILL DIMINISH ARND SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GRT LKS. MODEL BOUNDARY LYR RH SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS THRU TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... LIGHT RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND THE GREEN-UP HAVE MOST LIKELY LOWERED THE RISK FOR RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH. HOWEVER...WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE STATE AND RH/S WILL GET INTO THE 30S. /PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ012-018-019-024-025-033-041-042-045-046-049>053. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT

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