Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 050932 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 532 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT OF THE AREA IN THE SAT-MON TIMEFRAME...THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MCLEAR SKIES. IR LOOP AT 09Z SHOWING CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN PA...WHICH SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE BORDER BY 12Z. SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROF WILL CLIP NORTHERN PA THIS AFTN...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA NORTH OF I-80. NR TERM MDL DATA SUGGEST THE BEST CHC OF A SHOWER WILL BE ARND MIDDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AND MID AFTN OVR THE MTNS NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVR BY EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE. AFTER A MAINLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED W/COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE A MIX OF SUN AND CU OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD MSUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 11C-14C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE M80S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL BUILD SE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE M/U40S IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST PA...WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER. ELSEWHERE...LATEST CONSALL OUTPUT SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE 55-60F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA. SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN PA BY THU AFTN. MDL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MINOR DIFFS REMAIN REGARDING EXACT TRACK OF SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH OF PA THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WILL BE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP...SO WILL MENTION CHC/SCHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE THRU FRIDAY AM. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ODDS NOW APPEAR TO FAVOR FAIR AND SEASONABLE WX THIS WEEKEND...AS CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. GEFS TEMP PLUMES INDICATE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HGTS RISE ACROSS PA. MED RANGE GUIDANCE EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD WITH MASS FIELDS INTO NEXT WEEK...LENDING CONFIDENCE IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ARND NEXT TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 03Z TAFS SENT. LEFT LOW CLDS AND FOG OUT OF IPT. THINK JUST ENOUGH WIND FROM THE WEST. HAVE TO WATCH BFD. LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW...RAIN THERE EARLIER ENDED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS HAD TIME TO DRY OUT SOME TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN ALL LOCATIONS LATE TODAY...RIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LIGHT VALLEY FOG WED AND THURSDAY MORNING...ANY ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWERS SHOULDN/T BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIF VSBY REDUCTIONS. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON...THEN A TRANSITION TO MVFR WITH A STEADY/WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. HEAVIEST RAIN OVER ONE INCH...AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KJST TO KMDT. SAT AND SUN...EARLY MORNING REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED P.M SHRA/TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

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