Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250959 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 559 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track north-northeast from the Carolinas today and reach the southern New England coast by Thursday morning. This system will bring periods of rain today followed by improving conditions through midweek as the storm lifts away from the area. A summerlike pattern is forecast later this week with temperatures likely remaining well-above normal through the end of April. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A complex/consolidating low pressure system over the Carolinas this morning will lift slowly north-northeast today and reach the Delmarva/NJ coast by the end of the period. S-SE 850mb flow increases to 40-50kts by 18-21z supporting strong low/mid level MFLUX surge with PWATs peaking around 1.50 inches. Despite the placement/magnitude of MFLUX and S-SE 850mb wind anomalies, a high res model mean keeps the heaviest rain focused into NJ. However will need to watch for locally heavy rain bands tapping into some elevated instability that may try to wrap NWWD into southeast PA. The high res models also suggest rainfall amounts may be enhanced along eastern slopes of higher terrain due to strong S-SE upslope flow. Max 12hr POPs ending 26/00z are near 100% are over the far southeast portion of the CWA tapering to relative minimum around 50% along the Allegheny spine. Precipitation potential drops off from west to east later tonight into Wednesday morning. The cool/moist easterly flow will hold max temps in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A very low chance for rain will linger early Wednesday over the far eastern part of the CWA. However, the main story for Wed. should be improving conditions/increasing sunshine (west-to- east) and the start of a significant warming trend that should last well beyond the short term period. A mild southerly flow in advance of an approaching cold front will help boost temps +10 to +20 degrees above late April climo by Thursday. Models shows the front moving through the area Thursday night accompanied by scattered showers. Final NDFD POPs incorporated blend of 25/00z NBM and ECENS MOS which increased precip probs to around 60% over north-central PA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The Fri-Sun period looks mild and somewhat unsettled with the medium range model guidance generating periods of showers mainly across the NW portion of the CWA. The placement and especially timing of these showers is difficult to resolve at this stage and therefore stayed close to NBM/ECENS/WPC blend for POPS. While confidence is high in above normal temperatures, the question is how warm with frontal boundaries, cloud cover and risk for pcpn all contributing to potential bust scenario on the high side. There is a pretty strong consensus this cycle for the greatest risk for widespread showers/storms on Monday May 1st associated with a rather strong cold front crossing the Appalachians. Temperatures should trend closer to seasonal averages behind the front by next Tuesday May 2nd. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure lifting up the east coast will spread lowering clouds and spotty light rain into central Pa overnight. Model soundings and SREF prob charts suggest MVFR conditions will become likely by 04Z-06Z across southern Pa and after midnight over the northern half of the state. As the storm system moves closer, expect a steadier rain to develop Tuesday. With the exception of BFD/IPT, model soundings support IFR CIGs across central Pa Tuesday. Outlook... Wed...AM drizzle/low CIGs possible. Thu...AM fog possible. Isolated PM tsra impacts possible west. Fri...Isolated PM tsra impacts possible east. Sat...Isolated PM tsra impacts possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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