Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 101129 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE 6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... *IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z TAFS SENT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY. BULK OF THE SNOW NOW EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU. GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THU. FOR UNV...AND AOO...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT BACK INTO THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY AND AFTER SUNSET...AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. OUTLOOK... THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE. FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT. SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY. SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...MARTIN

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