Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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250 FXUS61 KCTP 171523 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1023 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm frontal system will push into the region from the Ohio Valley today, followed by a cold frontal passage tonight and early Wednesday. High pressure will follow and bring mainly dry conditions with temperatures several degrees above normal from the middle of the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Slow surface warming has allowed on time expiration of Advisories across the northern half of central PA as of 15z. Frequent periods of rain will persist across the NW mtns in closer proximity to the nose of a 50kt swrly LLJ and near the best LLVL theta-e convergence near the quasi stnry/warm frontal boundary. The axis of the relatively strong LLJ (and a distinct neg tilt trough axis at 850 mb) will lift NE across central and western PA late this morning and bring periods of light to mdt rain through 19Z. Surface warm front is progged to push into the Laurel Highlands during the afternoon, pushing temps into the 50s down there. Elsewhere, readings expected to top out in the 40s most places and the upper 30s over the Mtns north of Williamsport. Maintained POPs near 100 pct today based on the latest GEFS/SREF probs and overall favorable pattern of anomalous PWATS and strong lg scale forcing ahead of shortwave. Blend of model QPF ranging fairly close to a third of an inch.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Winds turn westerly behind the system by late tonight (west) and Wednesday (over the east) morning as flow turns more zonal, but with no real cold air is in sight. Low stratus and strato cu will combine with a westerly flow of the shallow cooler air to produce some light drizzle (across mainly the west-facing slopes and ridgetops of the Alleghenies) and also areas of ridge- top shrouding fog. Low temps early Wednesday will range from the mid 30s acrs the northern mountains, to the lower 40s in the south. The Wednesday morning stratus/stratocu layer will gradually dissipate during the mid to late afternoon hours, as a secondary cfront pushes through and is followed by enhanced deep-layer subsidence and drying, with only slightly cooler air in its wake. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge re-establishes itself over the eastern U.S. for late in the week, as mild SW flow persists over the midwest. Guidance suggests energy will dive south along the west coast eventually helping to strengthen the building upper ridge over the east. We`ll be on the eastern side of this, so subtle shortwaves sliding into the Midwest will bring varying amounts of cloudiness to the west (less in the east) with low end chances for light showers. Another wave approaches/lifts into the OH valley late next weekend into next Monday. Again, temps could be marginal at the start of pcpn overnight Sunday for some ice or snow, but the bulk of pcpn looks to be rain at this point. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions expected through tonight with periods of rain becoming more showery into Wednesday morning. Pockets of -fzra remain possible across the northern airspace thru 15z but marginal surface temperatures should limit icing impact. Outlook... Wed...MVFR/IFR west; MVFR to VFR central-southeast. Rain showers west ending Wed ngt. Thu...No sig wx. Fri...Sub-VFR possible with rain moving SW-NE. Sat...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...DeVoir/Steinbugl is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.