Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290926 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 526 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS OF NORTHEASTERN PENN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. 11-3.9 UM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER/STREAM VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN. LOW TEMPS AT SUNRISE WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-13Z...LEAVING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH JUST SOME FLAT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CU - TOPPED BY STREAKS OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN. MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHC FOR SHOWERS TODAY ACRS THE REGION...EVEN THOUGH A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL PENN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE U70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AS THE MEAN 850-500 MB FLOW FROM THE WEST HELPS TO TRANSPORT IN NOTABLY HIGHER PWAT AIR /OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE IN A MUCH TIGHTER RANGE...IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHC OF SEEING RAINFALL BEING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF NRN AND WESTERN PENN. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL WARM BY 2-4F COMPARED TO SATURDAY/S HIGHS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AFTER THAT...THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS 850HPA TEMPS RUNNING +1SD ACROSS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOVE-NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LOW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WHICH ARE FCST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRY TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO PA. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI. THIS FEATURE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. BFD BRIEFLY WENT BELOW IFR...AS HAS UNV...AND CONSIDERING THE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR THROUGH SUNRISE. HOWEVER THE PATCHY FOG IS LESS DENSE THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS SO IT WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDEER OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH BASED CU AND LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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