Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 291812 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 212 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY HAVE BEGUN TO POP. THE HRRR CONTINUES THE IDEA OF THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND SPREADING SLOWLY NE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LAURELS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN THROUGH LATE DAY. MESO ANAL INDICATES DECREASING STABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT PULSE STORMS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN SOME SPOTS. MADE TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT TRENDS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S REGION-WIDE. THREATS PAGE SHOWS THE HIGHEST CAPES DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE BIGGEST RETURN IN MOISTURE AS SHOWN IN THE PWAT ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO A RATHER WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY WITH A TENDENCY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BOIL UP. STILL THERE WILL BE NO REAL FOCUS MECHANISM SO TIMING WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE A VIRTUAL CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... POPS CONTINUE HIGH SAT NIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC HIGH OVR NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION SUN-MON..PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN SUN. DRYING TREND BEGINS MONDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING INTERRUPTED ONLY BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WESTERN TERMINALS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEF REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT IN THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS. THIS HAZE WILL TEND TO THIN OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. OUTLOOK... SUN-TUE...LOCALLY MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS AVIATION...LA CORTE

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