Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170927 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 527 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... After a chilly start to the week, a warming trend will return above average temperatures through the upcoming weekend with no rainfall expected. The dry spell will likely come to an end early next week, followed by a pattern change which should favor a more sustained period of seasonably cooler weather through the end of October. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A chilly, frosty morning will be followed by a bright autumn day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures near-average for mid October. Clear and calm tonight although not as cool with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Warming trend gets underway with more beautiful fall weather. High temperatures will run +5 to +10 degrees above climate norms. Nighttime temperatures (in the 40s) will be seasonably cool. The dry spell continues with any pcpn fcst to stay well to the north Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure re-establishes itself over the area on Friday before migrating off the Mid Atlantic coast this weekend. Unseasonably warm and dry wx is expected through Sunday. Most guidance now supports emerging deep GOMEX inflow surging northward along/ahead of potent cold front to fuel a swath of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall next Mon-Tue. There are slight timing differences with the frontal progression as one might expect at this range. Despite this, the key message appears to be a wet one for early next week. Ensemble systems are signaling a pattern change in the wake of this system which should favor a more sustained period of |seasonably| cooler weather through the end of the month. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure building into the region will bring clear skies and light wind overnight. Some patchy valley fog is expected to form over western Pa toward dawn, as SREF and downscaled NAM suggest. However, odds are low of vis reductions at any of the central PA airfields. Any patchy fog should burn off by mid morning, then there is a near certainty of widespread VFR conditions the rest of the day with high pressure over the state. Outlook... Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri-Sat...Patchy AM valley fog possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ026>028-035- 036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gartner

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