Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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478 FXUS61 KCTP 201410 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1010 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will extend across Pennsylvania through next Tuesday. This dominant weather feature will provide fair, warm and generally dry weather for this entire period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Visible satellite shows slow decay of fog and stratus over central PA. Any remaining fog/stratus will decrease in next couple hours leaving the region with a sunny and warm afternoon. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the lower 80s (and maybe a few mid 80s).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The broken record continues for tonight and Thursday under the persistent ridge along the spine of the Appalachians. mainly clear skies, light wind and a slight bump up in sfc dewpoint will provide optimal conditions for another night of locally dense and fairly widespread valley fog. Low temps early Thursday should be 2-4 deg F milder than early Wednesday, and similar increases in high temps from the prior day are also expected with highs near 80F across the nrn and wrn mtns, and low to mid 80s elsewhere. Sky cover (after the dissipation of the morning fog) will be generally scattered with some flat afternoon cu and areas of thin cirrus. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The overall pattern hasn`t changed much, there is a good overall consensus in the models for the end of the work week. For much of this period, a 590 dam closed 500 hPa high will drift slowly out of the midwest states, and become centered over western PA by late this weekend through early next week. The GEFS forecasts showed this feature as a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights which will translate to well above normal temperatures. High temps from Friday through the weekend will be 10-15F above normal with little or no chance of rain until Monday at the very earliest. Lows early each morning will be consistently in the mid and upper 50s across the northern and western mtns, to lower 60s in the larger SE metro areas. Min temps may cool off slightly for this weekend thanks to deep dry air and a light N to NW llvl flow of drier dewpoint air at the sfc. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GOES-16 fog channel imagery shows widespread valley fog confined mainly to the west of the Susquehanna River. The outer edge of cloud shield associated with TS Jose is drifting over the southeast airfields and has precluded fog formation. Locally dense fog will produce local cig/vis AOB airfield minimums. Expect fog to dissipate through mid morning with VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Persistence fcst favors more fog restrictions late tonight into Thursday morning. .Outlook... Thu-Sun...Patchy valley fog possible each morning. Otherwise VFR with generally light winds and minimal clouds. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical Fall/Autumnal Equinox begins at 4:02 PM Friday September 22, 2017. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/RXR NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...Lambert/RXR LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.