


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --783 FXUS61 KCTP 120235 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1035 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Continued seasonably warm and humid with near to above normal temperatures into mid July * Daily doses of drenching thunderstorm downpours capable of producing isolated wind damage * Episodes of rain continue this weekend into early next week with the strongest wet signals on Sun-Mon * Driest, but not entirely dry, timeframe may be Tues-Wed && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --Other than a few lingering showers just east of Williamsport, showers and thunderstorms have exited to the northeast. Mainly clear skies behind the storms should allow for locally dense valley fog formation over the northwest mountains. Fog and low stratus will also be possible over portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley as weak southeasterly flow transports moisture from the Atlantic into the region. While dry conditions are expected for much of Central PA tonight, a few showers associated with a weak shortwave passing to our north will be possible over the northern tier prior to sunrise. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the mid 60s and low 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --Another day of pulse convection appears likely for Saturday. Storms should, be terrain-induced at first and drift away as they mature into the meager shear profile (<20kts). The risk for severe gusts/hail remains low (general thunder from SPC), and the risk for flooding may be only a little higher but still only in the marginal category factoring in the lower shear (vs Fri) and slower cell movement, and the slightly lower PWAT values (1.5" vs 1.75" Fri).-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled pattern continues through the weekend and into the beginning stages of next week with highest signal for precipitation on Sunday with a cold frontal passage across the region. Ample instability, shear, and moisture will bring about some potential for severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the front; however, model timing differences do continue into this forecast cycle, which could limit severe potential. Heavy rainfall is also expected with these storms, with PWATs approaching 2.00" during the afternoon/evening hours. Best moisture at this point seems focused over eastern Pennsylvania, where highest month-to-date rainfall totals have been observed; however, a couple of days (relatively) dry conditions could allow for some relief before the next batch of heavy rainfall. Confidence continues to increase in much of central Pennsylvania getting an extended break in the rainy summer pattern next Tuesday and Wednesday. This "dry" signal is reflected in the latest medium range models and ensemble guidance which shows sfc high pressure/upper level ridge moving into the area in the wake of the aforementioned frontal system. There does remain some uncertainty on eastern extent of the frontal system with some potential for the front to get hung up across southeastern Pennsylvania throughout this period, which will keep SChc PoPs in this timeframe. Unsettled pattern returns for all of central Pennsylvania with increasing humidity and heat allowing for a return to the typical summer-time pattern that has been observed recently. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Lingering showers have all but dissipated across central PA as of 02z. As the clouds dissipate and/or peal away from the area, fog formation is visible on the nighttime microphysics imagery across the northern valleys...especially in areas that received earlier rainfall. Expect additional fog formation overnight with diminishing winds and plentiful low-level moisture. A marine layer and associated low clouds were also observed drifting westward towards southeastern PA at 02z, and will have to monitor this trend through the overnight hours as this could impact the Lower Susq Valley (MDT/LNS). With fog already forming in the northern valleys, and seeing BFD`s vsby dip to 6SM, have hit the BFD TAF a bit harder with fog than the LAMP model guidance. A possible fly in the ointment for additional fog formation across NW PA could be cloud debris drifting into the area from convection north of Lake Erie. This will bare watching overnight as well. Any fog/low clouds should dissipate Saturday morning, giving way to at least partial sunshine. Scattered showers/storms could once again develop in the warm, muggy airmass on Saturday. This has not been noted in the TAFs yet, so mentioning the possibility here in the AFD. Outlook... Sun...Numerous SHRA/TSRA developing ahead of a CFRONT. Sun night-Mon...CFROPA; Widespread SHRA/TSRA, mainly southeast. Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR. Isold PM TSRA poss, mainly south.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Bauco SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Bauco LONG TERM...Bauco/NPB AVIATION...Evanego