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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 222324
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
724 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of Pennsylvania
through Monday. This will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region for the next day.  High pressure
will build southeast into the region for the middle of next week
bringing slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity
levels.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Three distint cluster of showers running through the area right
now. Storms over the Laurels contain heavy rain, but it has
hardly rained there today, so flooding worries low there for the
evening and early tonight. Rain and spinning showers moving out
of the eastern counties are very low-topped and produced little
if any thunder as they passed through, but did make a >2" rain
stripe from Penfield to Lock Haven. One spotter in Lock Haven
had almost 2.5". Much of the area is just soaking in this
largely beneficial rain. Tweaks made to POPs for the next few
hours based on recent radar and CAMs trends.

Prev...
Complicated forecast for next day.  MCS moving across CWA
currently has lost a lot of its intensity over our area. Still
a couple areas of heavy rain though. One area across Mifflin
County moving fast enough NE and is rather benign. Gages in
Mifflin showing around a half to three quarters of an inch.
Another east-west band is entering western Clearfield County.
CAMS have been showing some heavier rainfall totals as this is
forecast to pivot NE and eventually slow down. Elsewhere radar
returns show only light showers. With high PW air and frontal
boundary over the area, models show more development this
afternoon and evening across the southern 2/3 of the CWA. Low
level jet will also increase overnight. Will keep pops high to
cover this. Still can`t rule out a few stronger storms across
the south. Storms will also have brief heavy downpours with a
quick 1-2 inches of rain possible. So isolated flooding is
possible as well.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
More convection is likely on Sunday with frontal boundary moving
little overnight. Moderate CAPES and moderate westerly flow
aloft, combined with large scale forcing ahead of approaching
upper trough, should support widespread convection by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Looking at some dry weather for a change from later Monday
into Wed, as weak high pressure builds into the area.

Less humid and slightly cooler weather for mid week.

Some showers and storms on Thursday into early Friday, as
another cold front moves across the area.

Back to dry conditions by later Friday into the weekend.

Cut back on showers and storms for Wednesday night and later
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main area of storms now south of central PA.

Still some showers and isolated storms this aft.

18Z TAFS adjusted for this.

Expect areas of low clouds and fog late tonight, given
humid airmass in place.

Higher chance of showers and storms on Sunday.

Less chance by later Monday.

Dry weather with mainly VFR conditions by Tue, as weak
high pressure builds in.

.OUTLOOK...

Sun night...Cig restrictions likely. Scattered TSRA/SHRA.

Mon...AM restrictions likely. Scattered TSRA.

Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog. Otherwise no sig wx.

Thu...Chance of showers and storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Martin