Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 291451 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1051 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE STATE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT TREND AS HIGH RES OUTPUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RESULT WAS HIGHS A FEW DEG HIGHER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATES. THREATS PAGE SHOWS THE HIGHEST CAPES DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE BIGGEST RETURN IN MOISTURE AS SHOWN IN THE PWAT ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY TEND TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE MEANDERING INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL PUT DOWN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WITH SURFACE MOISTURE BACK...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET. WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF CWA AND TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WITH BETTER FORCING AND THE WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... POPS CONTINUE HIGH SAT NIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC HIGH OVR NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION SUN-MON..PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN SUN. DRYING TREND BEGINS MONDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AS OF MID MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON INTERRUPTED ONLY BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WESTERN TERMINALS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEF REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT IN THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TSRA WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 04Z SATURDAY. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY...IN THE HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER...AND JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY OUTLOOK... SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD FROPA LATE SAT NW...AND SAT NIGHT CENTRAL AND SE PA. SUN-TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...ROSS AVIATION...LAMBERT/LA CORTE

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