Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 222324 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 724 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of Pennsylvania through Monday. This will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region for the next day. High pressure will build southeast into the region for the middle of next week bringing slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity levels.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Three distint cluster of showers running through the area right now. Storms over the Laurels contain heavy rain, but it has hardly rained there today, so flooding worries low there for the evening and early tonight. Rain and spinning showers moving out of the eastern counties are very low-topped and produced little if any thunder as they passed through, but did make a >2" rain stripe from Penfield to Lock Haven. One spotter in Lock Haven had almost 2.5". Much of the area is just soaking in this largely beneficial rain. Tweaks made to POPs for the next few hours based on recent radar and CAMs trends. Prev... Complicated forecast for next day. MCS moving across CWA currently has lost a lot of its intensity over our area. Still a couple areas of heavy rain though. One area across Mifflin County moving fast enough NE and is rather benign. Gages in Mifflin showing around a half to three quarters of an inch. Another east-west band is entering western Clearfield County. CAMS have been showing some heavier rainfall totals as this is forecast to pivot NE and eventually slow down. Elsewhere radar returns show only light showers. With high PW air and frontal boundary over the area, models show more development this afternoon and evening across the southern 2/3 of the CWA. Low level jet will also increase overnight. Will keep pops high to cover this. Still can`t rule out a few stronger storms across the south. Storms will also have brief heavy downpours with a quick 1-2 inches of rain possible. So isolated flooding is possible as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... More convection is likely on Sunday with frontal boundary moving little overnight. Moderate CAPES and moderate westerly flow aloft, combined with large scale forcing ahead of approaching upper trough, should support widespread convection by afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Looking at some dry weather for a change from later Monday into Wed, as weak high pressure builds into the area. Less humid and slightly cooler weather for mid week. Some showers and storms on Thursday into early Friday, as another cold front moves across the area. Back to dry conditions by later Friday into the weekend. Cut back on showers and storms for Wednesday night and later Friday. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main area of storms now south of central PA. Still some showers and isolated storms this aft. 18Z TAFS adjusted for this. Expect areas of low clouds and fog late tonight, given humid airmass in place. Higher chance of showers and storms on Sunday. Less chance by later Monday. Dry weather with mainly VFR conditions by Tue, as weak high pressure builds in. .OUTLOOK... Sun night...Cig restrictions likely. Scattered TSRA/SHRA. Mon...AM restrictions likely. Scattered TSRA. Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog. Otherwise no sig wx. Thu...Chance of showers and storms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross/Dangelo SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Martin

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