Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 202004 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 404 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring warm weather to Pennsylvania through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Clear skies across most of the CWA this afternoon with warm temperatures well above average. Radar shows a few popcorn showers across SW PA and can`t rule out that one of these showers drifts into western Somerset County for the remainder of the afternoon. Clear skies overnight with areas of fog redeveloping in the early morning hours. Low temperatures falling back into the 50s and 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Ridge holding strong again Thursday and Thursday night. Look for fog quickly dissipating in the morning followed a sunny and warm afternoon. Areas of fog form again in the early morning hours on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Beyond the midweek temperatures and the pattern remains stable as a building ridge continues to stifle any convection. weak flow at night should allow for valley fog to form nightly and to greet morning commuters. The overall consensus in the models through the weekend is for the 590 dam closed 500 hPa high will drift slowly out of the midwest states, and become centered over western PA by late this weekend through early next week. Ensemble temperatures are in general consensus and high temps through the weekend will be 10-15F above normal with little or no chance of rain until Monday at the very earliest. There are hints that what was left of Jose could bring moisture and thus some rainfall through Monday into Tuesday. However there continues to be model variability so have only chance POPS. Lows early each morning will be consistently in the mid and upper 50s across the northern and western mtns, to lower 60s in the larger SE metro areas. Min temps may cool off slightly for this weekend thanks to deep dry air and a light N to NW llvl flow of drier dewpoint air at the sfc.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions until pre dawn hours when fog reforms only to dissipate a couple hours after sunrise. Look for this pattern of early morning fog to repeat Thursday night into Friday morning. .Outlook... Thu-Sun...Patchy valley fog possible each morning. Otherwise VFR with generally light winds and minimal clouds. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical Fall/Autumnal Equinox begins at 4:02 PM Friday September 22, 2017. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner AVIATION...Ross CLIMATE...

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