Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270955 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 555 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE DAY OF COOL CONDITIONS BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 11-3.9 UM IR LOOP SHOWS RATHER EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK COVERING THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGEHNIES OF NRN AND WRN PENN. SIMILAR CLOUD COVER EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN POCONOS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW GENERALLY LIGHT...LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND AND OVER THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL ACCUMS WILL BE JUST 0.01-0.02 AT MOST...NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF KBFD. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY... UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT SFC AND ALOFT. 03Z SREF AND 00Z GEFS 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE THAT WE/LL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BEFORE AND EXTENDED WARMUP DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME OF THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY WHERE READINGS IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON /ESPECIALLY WHERE A LIGHT NW BREEZE PERSISTS/. LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 45-50F ACROSS PARTS OF SOMERSET CTY /WHERE SOME SIGNIF BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD DECK/...TO AROUND 60F IN THE URBAN AREAS OF THE LOWER/MID SUSQ VALLEY. COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATOCU CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NW PA...WHILE DOWNSLOPING/SUBSIDENCE YIELDS ONLY SCT CU ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. UNLIKE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EXITING TROF AXIS. THEREFORE...EXPECT NO REPEAT OF PM SHOWERS. PERHAPS JUST A FEW LINGERING AM LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVR NW WARREN CO. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST COOL DAY FOR QUITE A WHILE. BELOW SEASONAL ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS OF ONLY ARND 10C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE U60S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE U70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. NW SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 7 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TEENS DURING THE TIME OF PEAK VERTICAL MIXING BETWEEN 16Z-22Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH A LARGE...1020 MB SFC HIGH BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM BY SEVERAL DEG C...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY...FLAT CU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MIN TEMPS AT SUNRISE FRIDAY WILL BE UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN EARLY THURSDAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPING SWRLY SFC FLOW...TOPPED BY A GENERALLY ZONAL/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WARMUP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS RISING HEIGHTS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY ACRS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT INTO NEXT WEEK...AS IT REMAINS ON THE DRY SIDE...AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE S.E. US...AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PROBABLE HURRICANE ERIKA LURKING SOMEWHERE JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND MVG GRADUALLY NORTH OR NW. IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS INDICATED...THEN THIS WOULD KEEP ANY STORMY WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL PA. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IFR CEILINGS AT BRADFORD SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FOG THROUGH 12Z. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG LATE AT NIGHT BUT ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE AGAIN BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE PATTERN THURSDAY AND PROVIDE FAIR WX/VFR INTO THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE. MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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