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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 251830
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
230 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MID DAY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE
WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE BY MEMORIAL DAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU CEILINGS HAS NUDGED
INTO NERN PA AND IS CAUSING BKN-OVC SKIES OVER MY FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS BASICALLY BETWEEN 50 AND 60 FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...IT IS ANOTHER CHILLY AND GUSTY DAY TO START THE
TRADITIONAL FIRST WEEKEND OF SUMMER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT THE THINKING RIGHT
NOW IS THAT WE SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRECLUDE FROST IN
MOST AREAS THAT WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. FOR THE OTHER
AREAS...THE HEADLINE PRODUCT IS THEREFORE A FREEZE WARNING AS THE
WIND SHOULD NOT PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING TO FREEZING OR BELOW
OVER MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

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SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIGHT DAY OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NOSES IN FROM THE NW. THE DAY WILL BEGIN RATHER GUSTY BUT A
SLACKENING GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD MAKE FOR LESS WIND
LATER IN THE DAY...HELPING THE MID TO UPPER 60S HIGH TEMPS FEEL A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY WILL
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WE BENEFIT FROM A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

THIS EXCELLENT WEATHER TO ACCOMPANY OUR MEMORIAL DAY REFLECTIONS AND
ACTIVITIES WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK GETS MURKY AS THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH
US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

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VISUALS SHOW SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU...BUT ALL CEILINGS WHERE THEY
HAVE ONE WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000`.

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY NW WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL...DOWN TO THE 5-15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WIDESPREAD VFR...BUT WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND REDEVELOPING. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

-- Changed Discussion --
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE