Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300636 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 236 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COMMONWEALTH. THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A WELL-DEFINED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE STATE SUNDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK RIDGING OCCUR AT THE SFC...AND SW FLOW ALOFT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE TIME WITH MAINLY AREAS OF ALTO CU CLOUDS DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE STATE. PWATS ARE QUITE HIGH REFLECTED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LIGHT WIND AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS JUST A FEW TO SVRL DEG F ABOVE THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE MODERATELY MUGGY SIDE. A STRAY BRIEF SHOWER CAN/T BE RULED OUT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT POPS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ZERO THROUGH 12Z TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY IS ON TAP TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BOIL UP. STILL...WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES TODAY/ THERE WILL BE NO REAL FOCUS MECHANISM SO TIMING WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS ISOLD SVR WX GIVEN THE MODERATE CAPES PROGGED BY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND ASSOC DEEP LYR SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE THE RISK OF ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SVR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHEST POPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS COLD FRONT STALLS AND A WAVE IS PROGGED TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL PA. PERSISTENT FORCING AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO 1.8" RANGE BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA THAT WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME...AND CERTAINLY THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT GIVEN THAT WE`RE STARTING OUT MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL TO BEGIN. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON COOLING THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE 40S. TOO EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL CHANGE...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH THE STALLED FRONT AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH IR STLT TRENDS APPEARING TO DEPICT AN UPTICK IN LOW CIGS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL AIRSPACE FROM UNV EWD TO THE SUSQ RVR. MOST PROBABLE IFR SPOT SHOULD BE LNS FOLLOWED BY MDT WITH LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT IPT/UNV. PREDAWN/DAYBREAK RESTRICTIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR INTO THE AFTN. SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AIRSPACE TODAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND SHOULD CROSS INTO FAR NW PA BY EARLY SUNDAY. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW ALOFT...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE A MOIST ATM AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVE. USED A MIX OF VCTS AND PROB30 TO INDICATE TSTM POTENTIAL WITH 12HR POINT PROBS BTWN 40-60 PCT. LATER ARRIVING MESO GUIDANCE MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE OR USE OF TEMPO TO INDICATE MOST LKLY TIMEFRAME FOR TERMINAL IMPACT...BUT ATTM WILL BROAD BRUSH THE 18-23Z WINDOW. FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE OH RVR SHOULD STALL THE FRONT INVOF PA/NY BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH REDUCTIONS LKLY IN THE NRN AIRSPACE. SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE CONDS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN/TSTMS. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN/TSTMS. TUE-WED...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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