Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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929 FXUS61 KCTP 162115 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 515 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery and cool weather will occur for the rest of today with a mix of clouds and sunshine. After a clear and frosty night tonight, abundant sunshine and a lighter downsloping southwesterly wind will help temperatures to rebound to near normal on Tuesday. It will be dry with temperatures gradually rising to well above normal values later this week, and lasting right through this upcoming weekend as a large area of high pressure builds in. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Scattered to BKN cu or strato cu clouds will persist through the rest of the daylight hours as a sharp mid-upper thermal trough slides across the region. A rather tight llvl pressure gradient in place across the region will help to generate a NW wind averaging 12-17mph, with gusts into the mid 20kt range. The clouds and wind will diminish after dusk, leading to a clear, nearly calm and frosty night area-wide as high pressure builds in from the west at the surface and aloft. Temps for the rest of this afternoon will range from the upper 40s to low 50s across the northern and west mtns...to the Low 60s in the SE (or 15 to 25F lower than Sunday`s highs). Collaborated with surrounding WFOs to post a Frost Advisory for late tonight through the mid morning hours Tuesday. Freezing temps are not likely in locations that are still in the growing season. Perhaps SEG/THV and similar micro-climates could touch 32F, but most will not. For now, just mentioning areas of frost with lows in the 33-37F range. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A large are of high pressure will be stretched from the Mid Miss Valley to the Delmarva Coast for Tuesday. This weather feature will help to transport below normal PWAT air into the Commonwealth from the Ohio Valley. Tuesday will feature almost cloud free skies with the exception of perhaps a few pancake cu dotted about during the late morning and afternoon hours. Temps will bounce back quickly during the late morning and afternoon...maxing out in the normal range of 55-60F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... For the mid to late week period, heights gradually rise with a multi-model consensus indicating a string of dry and increasingly warm days and mainly clear/cool nights. We could have a period true Indian Summer weather with high temps in the in the low to mid 70s from mid week into next weekend. The next chance for precipitation should be not until late next Monday. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered cumulus will dissolve into clear skies and winds will diminish this evening, as high pressure builds in from the west. Some patchy valley fog is expected to form over western Pa toward dawn, as SREF and downscaled NAM suggest. However, odds are low of vis reductions at any of the central Pa airfields. Any patchy fog should burn off by mid morning, then there is a near certainty of widespread VFR conditions the rest of the day with high pressure over the state. Outlook... Wed...Patchy AM fog possible...otherwise VFR Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri and Sat...Patchy AM valley fog possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ026>028- 035-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Lambert LONG TERM...Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Lambert

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