Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290751 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 351 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW RIPPLING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUE INTO THU. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND RIDGE SHROUDING FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY AS MOIST...COOL LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES (TOPPED BY MILDER AND STILL MOIST SOUTH-SWRLY FLOW IN THE 3-5 KFT AGL LAYER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN THROUGH THE MID MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SHALLOW/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND LIKELY PRODUCE OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F THROUGH DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... FOR TODAY...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POTENT...MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX (120 KT AT 300 MB) MOVING ESE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN CAD REGIME BTWN SFC RIDGE OVR NEW ENG AND WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND OCNL RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPS TO ONLY ARND 50F...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM. LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE. PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR FROM LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH VSBYS VARYING BETWEEN IFR AND LOWER THROUGH 13Z...BEFORE IMPROVING TO IFR...AND MVFR AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. TUE...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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