Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270822 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 422 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will bring warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region into the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Radar mosaic at 06Z showing isold showers across central Pa in advance of weak shortwave moving into the area. This feature is progged to push east of the region by dawn, so will end mention of showers from west to east btwn 07Z-10Z. Lingering broken mid clouds for much of the overnight should prevent anything more than than thin fog from forming. Should there be a few spots that clear after seeing a shower, then locally lower visibilities could prevail for a few hours until just after sunrise. Mins tonight will feel mid-summerlike in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... After a warm and tranquil morning, diurnal heating of moist airmass should yield sct pm, pulse-type convection. NCAR ensemble data indicating CAPEs surging to arnd 2000 J/kg, which could support locally isold strong wgusts/hail in best cells. However, wind fields and deep lyr shear are weak, indicating organized svr wx is unlikely. Although Pops are blw 50 pct, what rain does fall could be locally heavy, due to slow storm motion and high PWATs. Convection- allowing mdls show this potential with local amts in excess of 2 inches possible. Mdl 850mb temps close to 16C are supportive of max temps today ranging from the l80s ovr the highest terrain, to nr 90F over the Susq Valley. Partly cloudy skies...light wind and moderately high dewpoints Friday night will lead to another mild night with the potential for light fog late. Mins in the low-mid 60s will be common. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Summertime upper level ridge over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states is forecast to peak around 29/00z with above normal heights returning to normal by early next week. Temperatures should follow a similar trajectory with maxT departures of +10-15F on Saturday /within 3-5 degrees of daily records/ before trending modestly lower/toward climatology into the first week of June. The tropical disturbance /Invest AL912016/ approaching the Southeast U.S. coast will add additional moisture to an already humid/unstable airmass in place through Memorial day weekend. Widely scattered, diurnal convection remains probable Saturday afternoon/evening with initiation likely triggering along the Allegheny spine before drifting east. Some interaction between the tropical disturbance and mid latitude trough crossing the Central Appalachians likely favors the greatest pcpn risk/potential pcpn coverage on Memorial Day (Monday) with a decreasing chance for rain into Tuesday. The 26/12z deterministic and ensemble guidance are in broad agreement in a dry period of weather from Tuesday into Wednesday before pcpn risk gradually increases into the second half of next week. Heights are forecast to rise a bit around the end of the period before the large scale pattern slowly shifts toward a western ridge/eastern trough configuration by June 6th as depicted by the 26/12z NAEFS and 26/00z ECENS. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridge of high pressure remains in control. VFR conditions will continue in most locales...however as temperatures drop and winds go calm patchy fog/low stratocu should form. Most likely place for statocu toward sunrise will be in the western higher terrain... and fog formation will be most where rain fell on Wed afternoon. Could see a several hour period of IFR cigs over the NW mtns and poss Laurel Highlands as SREF prob data suggest. Any reducing conditions will lift and/or dissipate by 15z...with VFR prevailing on Friday. Another round of isolated/scattered daytime convection is possible mid/late afternoon and early evening, mainly in the south and east. OUTLOOK... Sat...Early am low cigs possible. Isold pm tsra impacts possible. Sun...Sct pm tsra impacts possible...mainly nw half. Mon...Sct pm tsra impacts possible...mainly se half. Tue...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Synopsis...La Corte/Lambert Near Term...Fitzgerald Short Term...Fitzgerald/Lambert Long Term...Steinbugl Aviation...RXR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.