Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 282047 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 347 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY BEGINS A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AND REMAINING SO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS MILDER AIR FILTERS IN. IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH MILDER AIR ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SO WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG AND A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS. NORTHERN VALLEYS COULD STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE SAT EVENING. ELSEWHERE WILL MENTION THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING MIDNIGHT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BROAD...FAST ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MILD WEATHER...TEMPS WILL BE REACHING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY AND SEVERAL CHANCE AT WEAK...FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL FEATURE IN THE PERIOD. A RELATIVELY WEAK TROF TRAVELS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW...WILL BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THEIR TIMING. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS S CANADA. ANOTHER TROF WILL BRING A FRONT EAST FOR MID WEEK...BUT HERE THE GFS/EC ARE LESS IN SYNC WITH THEIR TIMING AT THIS POINT. LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH INCREASINGLY SERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH END OF THE HIGH...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MOST OF THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AM OVER NORTHERN PA. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY NORTH. LOW CIGS AT KBFD POSS SAT NIGHT. SUN...AM LOW CIGS/DZ POSS KBFD. MON...LOW CIGS/SHRA POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER AVIATION...ROSS

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