Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 212201 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 601 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD IS WARM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH. WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND FOR MID-LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...LOCALIZED REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR BEFORE NIGHTFALL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE

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