Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290356 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1156 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SNOW AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... BRISK NW WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS MY FAR NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...BUT PERSIST ELSEWHERE...MAKING THE ALREADY MUCH BELOW NORMAL LATE MARCH TEMPERATURES FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY. AS SFC HIGH BUILDS FARTER EAST OVERNIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA. THE NORTH CLEARED OUT SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED...AND AS A RESULT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE`LL SEE A FEW READINGS NEAR ZERO IN THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTRUBANCE MAY SPREAD MID-HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GLAKS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED ZERO TO ABOVE AS THE COLDEST POINT TEMPS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...ALTHOUGH NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN TODAY...WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAKDOWN THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. THE 850 0C LINE WILL BISECT THE STATE BUT EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF THE APRIL SUN ANGLE. BY MIDWEEK...WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN TROUGH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY WEEKS END. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG/MIST THAT SHOULD FORM DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WINDS CURRENTLY ARE REMAINING STRONG WITH GUSTS AT AOO AND MDT...THOUGH THESE WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. THE MOST AT RISK FROM THIS WILL BE BFD...WHICH COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATO CU BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. THOUGH THIS IS STILL RELATIVELY A LOW PROBABILITY SO HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS MVFR THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AFTER A MORE TRANQUIL AND NOTICEABLY MILDER DAY SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER AND PRECEDING...FEW- HOUR SHOT OF MDTLY STG WAA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 1 INCH WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NWRN PENN COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES BY 12Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR. MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THUR AFTERNOON NIGHT...A GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU

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