Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220857 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 457 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery northwest winds will usher in much colder air today. Occasional light showers are possible through tonight especially across the mountain areas and the north. The first bout of lake effect and upslope rain and snow showers are possible over some of the higher ridge tops. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KCCX picking up light returns over the West Central mountains and Laurel Highlands as cooler air continues to advect into the region. Air temperatures range through the 40s in these areas...and METARs indicate patchy drizzle and very light showers occurring. This will continue to be the case a cool and unsettled day is expected thanks to persistent northwest flow and lake clouds prevalent in the cyclonic circulation around deepening sfc low over southeast New England this morning. In fact 850 mb temps remain below zero throughout the day across central PA...and we`ll certainly be looking at a few wet snowflakes mixing in at times with some of the showers over the higher terrain of the northwest and northern mountains. Under such scenarios, the best chance for measurable precipitation usually favors these western and northern higher terrain areas with little more than sprinkles elsewhere. The far south and southeast will see breaks of sun...but the remainder of central PA will keep mostly cloudy skies through late afternoon. Highs today will only range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower to middle 50s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Post frontal lake effect regime in effect tonight and Sunday. Northwest flow will slowly weaken overnight and Sunday as drier air arrives and overlake trajectories diminish slightly. Expect clearing to expand northward tonight...but the northwest mountains... west central and northern mountains should keep quite a bit of stratus...all the way through Sunday afternoon. Mins tonight will range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast...while highs Sun range from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As the surface and mid level systems track through eastern Quebec, a broad cyclonic/northwest flow pattern will continue into early next week. Models forecast lingering deformation or lake-enhanced pcpn to come to an end by early Sunday morning. Gusty winds will should weaken a bit with peak gusts not as strong as Saturday. Focus will shift upstream to a series of shortwaves diving southeast from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the Northern Mid Atlantic region. Models show some varying QPF solutions with these features, but with limited moisture look for max amounts in the 0.10 to 0.25 range over north-central PA. Following a brief moderation in sfc- 850mb temps on Sunday, the aforementioned shortwaves will bring a reinforcing shot of chilly air into the area with below normal temps forecast into the middle of next week. High pressure should provide dry weather Tue-Wed with pcpn probs increasing toward the end of the week, with GFS/EC models and ensembles showing a low pressure system reaching the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by Thursday. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For the 03Z package, adjusted the timing of the patchy rain to the west some. Across the southeast, left VCSH in, given more activity lifting northward from MD. Earlier discussion below. 00Z TAFS sent. Problem will go from low clouds tonight to gusty winds on Saturday. A few rain showers tonight, may mix with some snow at JST and BFD by early morning. Improving conditions for the later part of the weekend. Visibility overall not expected to be very low over the next few days, except for brief time periods in heavier rain and snow showers. Outlook... Sun...No sig wx. Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW. Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Ceru/Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.