Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 302217 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 617 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM CANADA. THE FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 22Z. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATE CAPES BTWN 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WEAK WINDS ALOFT/WEAK SHEAR IS RESULTING IN UNORGANIZED SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LACK OF SIG LG SCALE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER SUNSET. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE N TIER...WHERE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE AN ARRIVAL TOWARD DAWN. ELSEWHERE...HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS FOR NOW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY LATE NIGHT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA. PTCLDY SKIES AND WET GROUND COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 05Z-11Z. TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE U50S OVR THE N TIER TOWARD DAWN W/ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE...LOWS IN THE M/U60S EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL BE A TALE OF TWO AIRMASSES WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL PA...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR SEEPING INTO NRN PA FROM CANADA AND NY...WHILE THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL CHALLENGE THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...SERN AREAS COULD VERY WELL BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE LOW TO MID 80S CURRENTLY PREDICTED. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT GIVEN THAT WE`RE STARTING OUT MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL TO BEGIN WITH. SO FAR THERE IS NO CONSISTENT INDICATION OF WHERE THE BEST RAINS MAY FOCUS SO NO FLOOD HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SURFACE FRONT IS MADE TO STALL OVER SRN PA WITH A WAVE OR SEVERAL WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT FORCING AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO 1.8" RANGE BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. STRONGER 0-1KM SW TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850 MB AND WINDS WITH A VEERING PROFILE WILL COMBINE WITH QUITE LOW LCLS TO ENHANCE SPC/S MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON COOLING THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE 40S. TOO EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL CHANGE...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH THE STALLED FRONT AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 21Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BRISK S TO SE FLOW IN SPOTS...HELPING TRIGGER STORMS. SO FAR...NO SEVERE STORMS. STRONGEST STORMS JUST SOUTH OF ERIE AND EAST OF BUF. MAIN SUPPORT FOR STORMS LIFTING TO THE NW OF MOST OF PA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN OUR AREA...MAIN AREA OF STORMS JUST EAST OF BFD...AND NEAR UNV. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR. THE RADAR HAS BECOME ACTIVE WITH NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LACK ANY PARTICULAR ORGANIZATION. EXPECT LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS AS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PA OVERNIGHT...LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH- CENTRAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VARIABLE CONDITIONS ALSO WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUTLOOK... MON...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUE-THU...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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