Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCTP 220857
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
457 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Blustery northwest winds will usher in much colder air today.
Occasional light showers are possible through tonight especially
across the mountain areas and the north. The first bout of lake
effect and upslope rain and snow showers are possible over some of
the higher ridge tops.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KCCX picking up light returns over the West Central mountains and
Laurel Highlands as cooler air continues to advect into the
region. Air temperatures range through the 40s in these
areas...and METARs indicate patchy drizzle and very light showers
occurring. This will continue to be the case today...as a cool and
unsettled day is expected thanks to persistent northwest flow and
lake clouds prevalent in the cyclonic circulation around deepening
sfc low over southeast New England this morning.
In fact 850 mb temps remain below zero throughout the day across
central PA...and we`ll certainly be looking at a few wet
snowflakes mixing in at times with some of the showers over the
higher terrain of the northwest and northern mountains. Under
such scenarios, the best chance for measurable precipitation
usually favors these western and northern higher terrain areas
with little more than sprinkles elsewhere. The far south and
southeast will see breaks of sun...but the remainder of central PA
will keep mostly cloudy skies through late afternoon.
Highs today will only range from the lower 40s northwest to the
lower to middle 50s southeast.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Post frontal lake effect regime in effect tonight and Sunday.
Northwest flow will slowly weaken overnight and Sunday as drier
air arrives and overlake trajectories diminish slightly. Expect
clearing to expand northward tonight...but the northwest mountains...
west central and northern mountains should keep quite a bit of
stratus...all the way through Sunday afternoon.
Mins tonight will range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower
40s southeast...while highs Sun range from the mid 50s north to
the lower 60s southeast.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the surface and mid level systems track through eastern Quebec,
a broad cyclonic/northwest flow pattern will continue into early
next week. Models forecast lingering deformation or lake-enhanced
pcpn to come to an end by early Sunday morning. Gusty winds will
should weaken a bit with peak gusts not as strong as Saturday.
Focus will shift upstream to a series of shortwaves diving
southeast from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the Northern
Mid Atlantic region. Models show some varying QPF solutions with
these features, but with limited moisture look for max amounts in
the 0.10 to 0.25 range over north-central PA. Following a brief
moderation in sfc- 850mb temps on Sunday, the aforementioned
shortwaves will bring a reinforcing shot of chilly air into the
area with below normal temps forecast into the middle of next
week. High pressure should provide dry weather Tue-Wed with pcpn
probs increasing toward the end of the week, with GFS/EC models
and ensembles showing a low pressure system reaching the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley by Thursday.
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the 03Z package, adjusted the timing of the patchy
rain to the west some.
Across the southeast, left VCSH in, given more activity lifting
northward from MD.
Earlier discussion below.
00Z TAFS sent.
Problem will go from low clouds tonight to gusty winds
on Saturday. A few rain showers tonight, may mix with
some snow at JST and BFD by early morning.
Improving conditions for the later part of the weekend.
Visibility overall not expected to be very low over the next
few days, except for brief time periods in heavier rain and
Sun...No sig wx.
Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW.
Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx.