Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 190724 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 324 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FAIR WEATHER WILL BE INTERRUPTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE CENTRAL PA MOUNTAINS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MORE FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOWER CLOUDS MOVING/FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON MOIST NERLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. BUT COVERAGE IS ACTUALLY BECOMING MORE SPOTTY THESE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NY BORDER ARE NEAR 40F...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH CLOUD AND NE WIND TO KEEP A WIDESPREAD FROST AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY AS THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD MIX AWAY. BUT ANOTHER DAY 3 TO 5F BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S AND L70S IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL FORCE A LONG-FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC AND UP INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL PA. THIS SHOULD CREATE A BLANKET OF CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/FOG AS IT SETTLES IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE LOW-CLOUD PROBLEM THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. SO OVERNIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...MAXES TRY TO RUN UP INTO THE 70S FOR MOST PLACES. THAT MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC...SO A LITTLE EXTRA THOUGHT WILL HAVE TO GO INTO MAXES ON SATURDAY. WILL FINALIZE THESE IN A FEW HOURS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM APPROACHES PA FOR SUN/MON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND TAKING A RUN AT 80F IN THE SE. WE/LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM OUR RUN OF CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AS LOWS REMAIN AROUND 60F SAT NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PA SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY AGREEING ON POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH TO POTENTIALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF QPF. THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MENTION FOR SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS...MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W CWA. COOLER AIR ON NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY/S HIGHS ABOUT 8-10F COOLER AND TUESDAY SLIPPING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES AS TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NE. LOOKS LIKE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AGAIN BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS FOR MIDWEEK AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LARGE AND RATHER STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA ONTARIO EARLY TODAY WILL CREATE A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY...BEFORE THE WIND DIRECTION VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE THE AREAS OF LOW CIGS/STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA. 11-3.9 MICRON SATL IMAGERY AND SFC OBS AT 07Z CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF CIGS AOB 1000 FT AGL FORMING/DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PA INVOF KBFD CIGS AT KBFD HAVE BEEN HOLDING PRETTY STEADY BETWEEN 700-900 FT AGL FOR THE PAST 4-5 HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH 13 OR 14Z TODAY. CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN ARE IN THE FORM OF VFR STRATO CU...BASED BETWEEN 5-7 KFT AGL. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME TEMPO MVFR BKN CIGS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AT KUNV...KAOO AND KJST. VFR EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS AFTER 14Z TODAY...THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. LOWS CIGS IN THE IFR TO PERHAPS THE UPPER LIFR RANGE /AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE/ LOOK LIKELY AT MANY AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AS THE SERLY-SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE /FROM NEAR THE VA/NC COAST/ OVER THE APPALACHIANS. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. SUN...SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS W MTNS. MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT/GARTNER LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LAMBERT

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