-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 010600
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL TRACKING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
CWA...MAINLY OVER SULLIVAN AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES. IPT PICKED UP
.03 IN FAST MOVING SHOWER RIGHT AFTER MINDNIGHT. PATHY FOG
DEVELOPEMENT EXPECTED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXITING EASTERN COUNTIES AT 06Z.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALREADY
SEEING SOME MVFR FOG FORMATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP...
MAINLY BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING /KUNV-KIPT/.

MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 13Z. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR