Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 221355
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
955 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Blustery northwest winds will usher in much colder air today.
Occasional light showers are possible through tonight especially
across the mountain areas and the north. The first touch of lake
effect snow flakes are possible over some of the higher ridge
tops...but no significant accumulations are expected.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Wind has picked up considerably locally since sunrise. Certain
lightweight objects in the parking lot have been blown over due
to peak gust of 43MPH (so far) at the office. However, this is
under wind advy criteria, and obs from METAR sites even lower (top
ends only in the L30KT). Wind advy criteria is frequent gusts
>=46MPH/40KT. No one is going to have the sustained >=31KT winds
to warrant an advy. Mixing algorithms and peak wind gusts yielded
by the model guidance keeps the gusts less than 40. Winds may even
pick up slightly as we mix a little deeper later today. Will hold
off on wind advy for now. Leaves which have turned colors are
mainly on the ground now. Perhaps local wind was enhanced at the
edge of the one lake band which has slid into Happy Valley from
the SW. A larger band of --ra is pointed right into Somerset Co,
and should hang there for much of the day or creep just slightly
to the north as well.
Perhaps of more interest is the remark of SB02/E06 in the 1322Z
KBFD observation = 4 minutes of snow mixed in with the very light
rain at KBFD. So, as expected, there are probably some flakes
flying around the northern mountains. No accums are expected
through the daylight hours with the temps (esp ground temps) above
Overall, a raw/blustery day. Quite a shock after many days of
U70s/L80s. Welcome to autumn.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Post frontal lake effect regime in effect tonight and Sunday.
Northwest flow will slowly weaken overnight and Sunday as drier
air arrives and overlake trajectories diminish slightly. Expect
clearing to expand northward tonight...but the northwest mountains...
west central and northern mountains should keep quite a bit of
stratus...all the way through Sunday afternoon.
Mins tonight will range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower
40s southeast...while highs Sun range from the mid 50s north to
the lower 60s southeast.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the surface and mid level systems track through eastern Quebec,
a broad cyclonic/northwest flow pattern will continue into early
next week. Models forecast lingering deformation or lake-enhanced
pcpn to come to an end by early Sunday morning. Gusty winds will
should weaken a bit with peak gusts not as strong as Saturday.
Focus will shift upstream to a series of shortwaves diving
southeast from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the Northern
Mid Atlantic region. Models show some varying QPF solutions with
these features, but with limited moisture look for max amounts in
the 0.10 to 0.25 range over north-central PA. Following a brief
moderation in sfc- 850mb temps on Sunday, the aforementioned
shortwaves will bring a reinforcing shot of chilly air into the
area with below normal temps forecast into the middle of next
week. High pressure should provide dry weather Tue-Wed with pcpn
probs increasing toward the end of the week, with GFS/EC models
and ensembles showing a low pressure system reaching the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley by Thursday.
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR at AOO, UNV, BFD, JST and IPT will continue through the morning.
As the region is now in post frontal passage, winds are gusty from
the northwest. Conditions will slowly improve late Saturday into
Sunday. IFR will be possible Sunday morning at BFD and JST.
Sun...No sig wx.
Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW.
Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx.
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/La Corte