Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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959 FXUS61 KCTP 130716 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 216 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AND RESULT IN STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN A STRENGTHENING STORM WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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RADAR AT 07Z SHOWING SCT SHSN ACCOMPANYING ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. PASSAGE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ARRIVAL OF LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA BY ARND 09Z...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED BASED ON LATEST MDL OUTPUT. BY DAWN...EXPECT THE ONLY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO BE FALLING OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLAND ASSOC WITH LK HURON CONNECTION AND ALSO ACROSS THE SNOWBELT OF NW WARREN CO. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WITH READINGS BY DAWN EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ARND ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE PLUMMETING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT...SHOULD CREATE WCHILLS NR 20 BLW ZERO ACROSS THE N MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY 12Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY OUTSIDE OF THE PREVIOUS WIND CHILL FLAGGED AREAS WHERE CHILLS WON/T MEET CRITERIA...BUT WINDS WILL GUSTS AROUND 40KT AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE`LL SEE THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPS SINCE LAST WINTER TOMORROW. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN -22F AND -25F SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID TEENS IN THE SE. LK HURON CONNECTION SHOULD SHOULD FOCUS THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW WARREN CO AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO SEEMS LIKELY BASED ON NCAR MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE. LOSING CONFIDENCE IN LES WARNING/ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NW MTNS FOR SATURDAY. BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS FLOWING OVR THE LAKES WILL LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF LK HURON PLUME AND LATEST MDL QPF SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS INDICATED ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS. LATEST SPC SSEO INDICATES ALMOST NO CHC OF 3 INCH AMTS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND NCAR MEAN SNOWFALL SATURDAY ONLY AN INCH OR LESS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... *IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. POLAR VORTEX DIVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH ARCTIC BLAST INTO CENTRAL PA LATE SAT-SUN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP A MEAN TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROF POSITION. THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK...BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT SPREAD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY MON-TUE BUT THE TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD END ON A MILDER NOTE. THE COLDEST TEMPS/WCHILLS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT OVR THE AREA...AS 8H TEMP ANOMALIES OF NEAR 3SD BLW CLIMO GRAZE THE AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ARND ZERO IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST MTNS. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. THE MODEL SPREAD HAS NARROWED A BIT CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST NEXT MON-TUE. LATEST GEFS AND ECENS INDICATING A SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS EASTERN PA IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD FAVOR RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS THE W MTNS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PTYPES ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT NOW DEFINITELY FAVORS RAIN ACROSS THE EAST. ALL THE MODELS ARE SIGNALING A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE LKLY RANGE FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK...AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AND A PSBL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST OF PA. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SQUALL CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER THE LATEST MODELS AND ANALYSIS SHOWS IT IS SPLINTERING AND WEAKENING AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INLAND. DOWNSLOPE FLOW KICKS IN LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN MOST PLACES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...THOUGH IN THE LINEAR BAND OF SNOW EXPECT REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS. THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW/UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE. MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY NW HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-037- 041-042. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ010-017-024-033. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ010>012-017- 018-024-033. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-025>028- 034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU

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