Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221355 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 955 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery northwest winds will usher in much colder air today. Occasional light showers are possible through tonight especially across the mountain areas and the north. The first touch of lake effect snow flakes are possible over some of the higher ridge tops...but no significant accumulations are expected. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Wind has picked up considerably locally since sunrise. Certain lightweight objects in the parking lot have been blown over due to peak gust of 43MPH (so far) at the office. However, this is under wind advy criteria, and obs from METAR sites even lower (top ends only in the L30KT). Wind advy criteria is frequent gusts >=46MPH/40KT. No one is going to have the sustained >=31KT winds to warrant an advy. Mixing algorithms and peak wind gusts yielded by the model guidance keeps the gusts less than 40. Winds may even pick up slightly as we mix a little deeper later today. Will hold off on wind advy for now. Leaves which have turned colors are mainly on the ground now. Perhaps local wind was enhanced at the edge of the one lake band which has slid into Happy Valley from the SW. A larger band of --ra is pointed right into Somerset Co, and should hang there for much of the day or creep just slightly to the north as well. Perhaps of more interest is the remark of SB02/E06 in the 1322Z KBFD observation = 4 minutes of snow mixed in with the very light rain at KBFD. So, as expected, there are probably some flakes flying around the northern mountains. No accums are expected through the daylight hours with the temps (esp ground temps) above freezing. Overall, a raw/blustery day. Quite a shock after many days of U70s/L80s. Welcome to autumn.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Post frontal lake effect regime in effect tonight and Sunday. Northwest flow will slowly weaken overnight and Sunday as drier air arrives and overlake trajectories diminish slightly. Expect clearing to expand northward tonight...but the northwest mountains... west central and northern mountains should keep quite a bit of stratus...all the way through Sunday afternoon. Mins tonight will range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast...while highs Sun range from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As the surface and mid level systems track through eastern Quebec, a broad cyclonic/northwest flow pattern will continue into early next week. Models forecast lingering deformation or lake-enhanced pcpn to come to an end by early Sunday morning. Gusty winds will should weaken a bit with peak gusts not as strong as Saturday. Focus will shift upstream to a series of shortwaves diving southeast from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the Northern Mid Atlantic region. Models show some varying QPF solutions with these features, but with limited moisture look for max amounts in the 0.10 to 0.25 range over north-central PA. Following a brief moderation in sfc- 850mb temps on Sunday, the aforementioned shortwaves will bring a reinforcing shot of chilly air into the area with below normal temps forecast into the middle of next week. High pressure should provide dry weather Tue-Wed with pcpn probs increasing toward the end of the week, with GFS/EC models and ensembles showing a low pressure system reaching the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by Thursday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR at AOO, UNV, BFD, JST and IPT will continue through the morning. As the region is now in post frontal passage, winds are gusty from the northwest. Conditions will slowly improve late Saturday into Sunday. IFR will be possible Sunday morning at BFD and JST. Outlook... Sun...No sig wx. Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW. Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Watson/DeVoir/La Corte NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir/La Corte LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Ceru/Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.