Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 040328 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1128 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AS MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE. MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE HIGHEST PWATS ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 02Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU/CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN. HEATING/DESTABILIZTION IN THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND SC MTNS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET. HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 03Z TAFS SENT. NO REAL BIG CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST. JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY. LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS. THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO DEVELOP. FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT. THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK... SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX. MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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