Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 010840 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 440 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT 1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE RESTRICTIONS WHERE BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE OR CURRENTLY ARE SEEING IFR AND LOWER. IPT WILL SEE CONDITIONS VARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE PATCHY FOG BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH TO PERSIST. UNV...AOO...LNS AND MDT SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IF ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS DECOUPLE WITH CALM WINDS FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS A MAIN CONCERN BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W. && .CLIMATE... PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATUERS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU CLIMATE...STEINBUGL

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