Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290114 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 814 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... LOTS OF CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE DRYING WNW FLOW. LOW STUFF IS STARTING TO BREAK UP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT HIGHER CLOUDS STILL STREAMING OVER FROM THE W/SW. SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE FAR S THROUGH SUNSET AS A VERY WEAK WAVE ROLLS JUST TO THE S OF THE STATE. ANY SNOW IN THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS IS GOING TO BE NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO WARMER- THAN-FREEZING TEMPS UNTIL LATE AFTN. A THIN COATING MAY ACCUMULATE BUT HARDLY ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS STEADY NOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT WILL START TO FALL SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE SC/SE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. BUT THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL QUITE /8-10F/ ABOVE NORMAL MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...DESPITE ONLY LIGHT NW WIND AND DECENT CAA. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHSN OR EVEN A PATCH OR TWO OF FZDZ OVER THE NW TONIGHT. BUT THE SHSN/FZDZ WOULD BE WIDELY SCT AND NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...ANY FZDZ...IF IT DOES DEVELOP...COULD MAKE A SLIPPERY MORNING DRIVE IN THE FAR NW/NRN TIER. NO ADVY NECESSARY AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. WE SHOULD ENJOY NO PRECIP AND LIGHT WINDS FOR MONDAY. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD CREATE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE S MAY DIM THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALMOST SPOT ON NORMALS - QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A WAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. MORE CONFIDENCE THAT IMPACTS/PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAURELS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR. GEFS AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF 2015 DEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW WEST OF PA BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MILD AIR BACK INTO THE STATE WITH RAIN LIKELY THE MOST DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF PA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COLDER AIR AND A MORE MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE SALIENT POINT IN THIS IS THAT THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND MODEL FORECASTS ALIGN. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND COLD FROPA EARLIER TODAY. THIS HAS LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDS WITH VFR AT ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT KJST. KJST HAS BEEN MAKING SOME IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE NRN MTS LATE THIS EVENING AND COULD TOUCH OFF ISOLD SHSN OR SOME PATCHY FZDZ VCNTY KBFD...BUT THIS WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT WORTH A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. ALSO...THE CIGS COULD LOWER AT KBFD MORE TOWARD MORNING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND SQUEEZES THE CLOUD DECK LOWER. ELSEWHERE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL STRETCH FAR TO THE EAST AND ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR TO LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW FLURRIES OFF THE LAKES OR ON UPSLOPE FLOW INTO JST WILL BE THE ONLY POSSIBILITIES OF PRECIP UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER

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