Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 040543 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 143 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN SPREADING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE CWA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z. 00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS FURTHER TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/. MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN ADVANCE OF A PAIR OF LOWER/MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHORTWAVES. MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW 3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST 1.2-1.5 INCHES. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 0530Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL MIXED INSTABILITY/CAPE OF UP TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES /WHERE FFG IS THE LOWEST/ IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES. EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. WHILE THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN. HEATING/DESTABILIZTION IN THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW COMPACT PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND SC MTNS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COOL FOR THE 4TH...AVERAGING SOME 8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 03Z TAFS SENT. NO REAL BIG CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST. JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY. LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS. THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO DEVELOP. FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT. THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK... SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX. MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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