Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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912 FXUS61 KCTP 161537 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1137 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will cover the region today into early Thursday. A warm front will push up from the south on Thursday and a cold front will move through the state late Friday and Friday night bringing a few round of showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure will clear things out behind the front for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure will dominate the day and the mostly sunny sky will allow for warmer than normal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Light wind and still-summer dewpoints will keep the threat of fog coming back tonight - but mainly in the river valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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The 00Z EC/GFS/NAM are in good agreement of another 500 MB trough approaching the region through the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon. This will correspond with a mid level closed low that will move through the peninsula of Michigan and bring a warm frontal boundary through the state Friday. The warm moist southwesterly flow will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. The main threat will be through the central mountains, especially given daytime heating.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The progression of a warm front north-eastward will be the best indicator for showers and thunderstorms, with them most likely Thursday night into Friday. A cold front on Friday out ahead of a strengthening closed mid level low will push through Friday afternoon and evening. Combined with moisture out ahead of this system the ensembles and models are in decent agreement on timing and progression bringing it through the mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday morning. SPC guidance for Friday places much of the area in a marginal risk for severe convection. There could be some severe convection later Thursday night with CAPE remaining high through the night. However, the amount/placement of forcing will be the question that period. Timing of the cold frontal passage is fairly early in the day over the west, but most of the area will be quite unstable on Friday afternoon and lingering into the evening in the SE. High pressure moves back in for Saturday. Based on NBM and latest mid range guidance have trended temperatures upward through the weekend and into next week.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR through the rest of the day and into early tonight with high pressure and large-scale subsidence overhead. Fog impacts are possible again later tonight into Thursday morning after which much of the day on Thursday should be VFR. Just a few showers will pop up Thursday afternoon in the west and south. Thursday Night and Friday hold a much more widespread chance of thunderstorm impacts. .OUTLOOK... Thurs night-Fri...Sct Tstms impacts likely. Sat-Sun...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Lambert NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Ceru SHORT TERM...La Corte/Ceru LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner AVIATION...Dangelo/Steinbugl

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