Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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112 FXUS61 KCTP 240459 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1259 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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The weather pattern will remain unsettled through Memorial Day. Temperatures will be cooler than average to end the week with a modest rebound likely this weekend into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1AM: Significant upward adjustment to POPS early this morning based on rainfall creeping north of the Mason-Dixon line toward the PA Turnpike. HIRES consensus suggests decreasing rain coverage over far south-central PA through daybreak with sct showers becoming more focused over the western 1/3 of the CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Tomorrow we should be mostly between systems. The clouds and moisture from the wave to our southeast should be pulling away overnight. And the clouds and rain from the deep 500 hPa low will be heading our way from the west-southwest. Most areas should have a pretty nice day, but once again on the cloudier side of things. Kept POPS in the chance range in southwest before 18 UTC and brought them up higher and into central PA by 00 UTC. Sometime from 2100 UTC Wed to about 0300 UTC it`s going to get wet. But highest probability of rainfall in current guidance will likely be on Thursday. New guidance might change this. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As upper low drops into the TN Valley Wed night, surface low develops over the Ohio Valley with a warm front extending eastward across the mid atlantic states. Initial question will be timing of onset of precip over CWA. Precip will be working across W PA by early eve and will spread eastward as flow turns from the SE around to the S, overspreading all of central PA by the overnight hours. System slides through Thu into Thu night, with a widespread rainfall around 0.75 inch. On Friday, cool cyclonic flow on backside of departing cyclone will maintain risk for showers. A lower-amplitude mid level flow pattern will develop into the weekend with some ridging likely at 500mb. Uncertainty regarding location and timing of shortwave impulses rounding the ridge and effect of prior upstream convection leaves plenty of question marks for Saturday - but there is more agreement in area of max POPs over S OH/into WV and SW PA in the afternoon. NBM/ECE blend yielded the highest POPs for Sunday across Central PA associated with cold front moving south/eastward across the Great Lakes/Appalachians. A severe risk may accompany the cold front but still to early for details. The large scale pattern evolves into a broadly cyclonic regime into early next week around an upper low between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay. This should keep the pattern unsettled with continued threat for showers/Tstorms through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Most of the flying area is under a blanket of high clouds. Some MVFR has crept into MDT and this lowering ceiling trend over southern areas as the area of rain slowly overspreads the region. Expect the mainly light rain to move into about the southern half of the forecast area during the remainder of the overnight and early Wednesday with MVFR/IFR conditions developing. Northern areas will see just spotty light showers and widespread sub VFR conditions are not expected. Conditions will improve slowly Wednesday morning with most areas improving to VFR by mid day. MVFR could hang tough over the Laurels. Clouds will increase west to east as another system approaches with rain and reduced conditions overnight Wednesday into Thursday. .OUTLOOK... Thu...Rain/low cigs likely through at least midday. Fri...Showers/MVFR cigs NW. Mainly VFR SE. Sat...No sig wx expected. Sun...Reduced conditions with scattered showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Grumm LONG TERM...RXR/Steinbugl AVIATION...La Corte

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