Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 230506 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 106 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE RECENT SIEGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FROM AN APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONTAL SYSTEM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK SFC LOW NEAR KIDI...AND A BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSING SLOWLY WESTWARD FROM THE SUSQ VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO A MAINLY CLOUDY AND MILD NIGHT WITH ISOLATED...SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. DIGITAL PRECIP RATES HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH JUST A FEW SMALL AREAS EXCEEDING ONE INCH PER HOUR. RATES JUST PRIOR TO 0330Z WERE OVER 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS SEVERAL KFT...AND NO LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED IN THESE TROPICAL LIKE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 2 AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL EXPIRE SHORTLY. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL...BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SLOW MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT INVOF KIPT AND KSEG... IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW ZONES INVOF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STNRY SFC LOW...WITH BETTER LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND STILL JUST OVER 500 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NW ZONES...CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY DRY FOR MOST PLACES THROUGH 12Z. TOWARDS DAWN...THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS/RIDGE-SHROUDING FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD UNDER CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... EXPECT ONE MORE MOIST DAY IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER TROF ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD COMBINING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY PERSIST WELL INTO SAT AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN MTNS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER 60S. FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS...AWAY FROM THE MARITIME FLOW AND IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW...MAY WARM INTO THE 70S. THE RESULTING INSTABILITY COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A PM TSRA ACROSS WARREN CO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN US. THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NERN US SLIDING EAST MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND MAINTAINS ITS HOLD UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED TO APPROACH...ALBEIT IN DIFFERENT FASHIONS BY THE VARIOUS MED RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP US DRY THROUGH AT LEAST LATER WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GEFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC BRINGING MEASURABLE RAINS EAST QUICKER UNDER A FLATTER UPPER FLOW. THE GEFS UPPER PATTERN MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER TROUGH HANGING BACK IN THE MID WEST AS HEIGHTS IN THE EAST SLOWLY FALL WITH THE EAST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING OUT IN TIME. THE DIFFERENCES ARE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROWING DOUBT ON THE FORECAST SO I OPTED FOR A RATHER BLAND CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE LAST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST WILL BE A SUMMERY ONE FOR THE FIRST DAYS OF SCHOOL IN MANY COMMUNITIES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEN WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE AIRMASS SITUATION BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STILL A FEW STORMS NEAR JST. ANOTHER BATCH FROM NEAR IPT...SOUTHWARD ACROSS SEG...TO NEAR MDT. 03Z TAFS WILL BE ADJUSTED FOR THIS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THERE IS 2 AREAS OF STORMS. ONE ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND ONE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE CLEARING TODAY. CAN SEE THE STRONGEST STORMS OUT THE WINDOW HERE. ANYWAY...21Z TAF PACKAGE UPDATED. DID ONE AT A TIME...GIVEN TYPE OF CONDITIONS PRESENT...INSTEAD OF SENDING ALL AS A GROUG AT 520 PM. SHOWERS ARE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL... WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT MIDDAY AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. BRIEF TSTM VSBY AND CIG IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND ANY LINGERING STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SWWD FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPLCHNS TNGT THRU THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING LOW CLOUDS/CIGS INTO THE FCST WITH SOME LIGHT RA/DZ EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDS SUN THRU TUE. OUTLOOK... SUN...LOW CIGS PSBL EARLY THEN BCMG VFR. MON-WED...VFR NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.