Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 312334 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 734 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS EVENING APPROACHES...A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ABOUT THE REGION. AS YET NO LIGHTNING...BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY FADING AS WE LOOSE HEATING...BUT KEEPS A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SERN AREAS EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO LOW SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. DESPITE THE MENTION OF RAIN...MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NOT BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY /INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH DAY. THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECTING MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORNING FOG GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 13Z TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...JUNG

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