Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221639 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1139 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM ADVECTION WILL TOUCH OFF VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN PA TODAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A ROLLER COASTER RIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BEFORE TRENDING COLDER BY THANKSGIVING DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK WAVE BUT SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LONG ROUTE THE MOISTURE TAKES AND THE DRY AIR BENEATH THE BEST LIFT WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE POSSIBLE RAINFALL. TEMPS ARE HEADING UPWARD AS EXPECTED ALREADY 34F ON THE ROOF. SOME POCKETS OF SUB-FZG TEMPS LEFT IN THE NRN VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKE KFIG...BUT THE RIDGE TOPS THERE ARE ABOVE FZG AT 16Z. THEREFORE...THE ADVY IS STILL OK AND WILL LET IT RUN THROUGH EXP TIME. MAIN SHORT WAVE FORCING/PVA WILL BE TO THE EAST...BUT A TAIL WILL LINGER ALONG A BIT OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN MTS EARLY TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND A MUCH MILDER AFTERNOON THANKS TO FRESHENING SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE SFC HIGH. MAXES WILL NOT ONLY CRACK 40 THROUGHOUT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...BUT SOAR ABOVE 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS ENE FROM THE MID TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 40+KT 850 MB JET SWINGING NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BETWEEN 20Z SUN AND 00Z MON. THIS WILL TOUCH OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE AROUND OR AFTER 00Z MON. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPOTTY/LIGHT PCPN OVER THE NRN TIER SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITHIN ZONE OF RELATIVELY STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX AND LOW-MID LVL WAA ASSOCD WITH 40-50KT WSW LLJ ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE ERN GREAT LAKES MAY PROVIDE ADDNL LIFT. PTYPES ARE FCST TO BE PLAIN RAIN OVER THE NW ZONES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN -ZR OVER THE NERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE 2M TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 32F PER MULTI-MODEL/MOS BLEND. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOUDY...MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY WX ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. PHASING OF SPLIT-STREAM ENERGY WILL YIELD A DEEP 980MB LOW /-3 TO -4 STD MSLP/ LIFTING NWD THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO SERN CANADA ON MONDAY. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SUN NGT. RAISED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ABOVE WPC AND IN-LINE WITH THE MEAN ECENS MOS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL /NEAR RECORD HIGHS/ BEFORE THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT USHERS IN COLDER AIR. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN COLDER TO BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING AS THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING PERSISTENCE OF THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. FINALLY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR MORE WAVES DEVELOPING IN THE WRN ATLC DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MSTR SHIELD MAY CONTAIN SNOW. SOLUTIONS FROM THE 00Z SAT SUITE ARE STILL VERY MUCH MIXED...WITH GEFS SOLUTIONS LARGELY FOCUSED ON A MOSTLY OFFSHORE STORM TO AFFECT THE FISHES...WHILE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD INLAND SNOWFALL IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY... ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1630Z... TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET IS TIMED VERY NICELY. CIGS ARE LOWERING QUICKLY. PREV... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDS AND SOME PCPN LATER SAT MORNING INTO SAT AFTN MAIN ACROSS THE NRN SECTIONS...MAINLY AFFECTING KBFD. WITH COLD SFC TEMPS IN PLACE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR. AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AIRFIELDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE SFC WINDS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE DAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE RELENTING TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS NORTH. MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS. TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR ELSEWHERE. WED...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU

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