Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 301915 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 315 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS. DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY WEATHER BEHIND FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SUN...MAINLY VFR. MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL AVIATION...ROSS

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