Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230521 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 121 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will stay anchored across the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeastern States through at least the middle of next week. This will continue dry and unseasonably warm weather in Pennsylvania. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Another mild early autumn night with upper ridge entrenched and fair weather persisting overnight. Fog will form once again in the valleys, making very similar conditions to the past few mornings. Mins could run a degree or two milder in the NW since some mid level clouds could come in from the north. Conversely, lower mins possible tonight vs Fri AM in the SE with comparably fewer clouds there. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Dry and warm with comfortable humidity. 8H temps change little, but inversion lowers even a bit more. Scattered mid clouds may also keep temps down a deg or two vs Fri aftn, but persistence is a strong companion in this kind of pattern. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... It looks to remain dry into at least Wednesday as the ridge that kept Jose locked offshore protects us for several more days. Weak flow at night should allow for valley fog to form and to greet morning commuters. At this time it looks like the remnants of Jose will remain offshore with the next chance for rain locally being with a weakening cold front that the latest guidance brings our way late Wednesday into Thursday. The models agree in keeping the upper ridge the dominant feature into midweek, before northern stream energy starts to chew away at our high heights. The ECMWF is faster in bringing a shortwave through the NERN US while the GFS is slower but carves out an intense upper low dropping into the OH Valley for next weekend. This feature is not in the GEFS nor is it in the ECENS so a flatter faster moving shortwave seem the better idea. Either way it will lead to a cool down by the end of the week into next weekend. NHC models keep Maria well east off the coast as it heads north later next week. The ECENS shows the closest approach to the eastern seaboard, bringing the storm about 100 miles east of Cape Hatteras around Thursday. It will give us something to watch over the next week or so. It`s worth noting, this storm will be moving over waters that have been churned up by Jose. While still a large and dangerous storm, between the shear and colder waters, it has seen its best days intensity-wise. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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No big changes to 06Z TAFS. Dewpoints lower than in recent days, so fog is less likely this morning. More detail below. High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania today, ensuring VFR conditions and light wind for most of the area. The only issue will be some patchy valley fog during the early morning hours. The air mass is a bit drier than yesterday, so expect fog to be confined to the deep river valleys north of I-80, likely leaving the central PA airfields unaffected. Can`t rule out a brief reduction at KBFD or KIPT around dawn, but believe the odds are below 50 pct based on a combination of conditional climatology, SREF prob charts and MOS guidance. .Outlook... Sun-Wed...Patchy AM valley fog possible, mainly northern PA.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.