Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290004 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 804 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GLAKS THIS EVENING HAS CLEARED SKIES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA...ASIDE FROM A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. UPSTREAM RIBBON OF PARTIALLY TRANSLUCENT MID-HIGH CLOUD OVER MI/OH WILL STREAM OVER WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SUFFICE GIVEN THEIR DEGREE OF TRANSPARENCY. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z...WINDS WILL GO CALM. DRY AIR WILL FIGHT FOG FORMATION IN ALL BUT THE DEEPEST DARKEST VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS COULD DROP TO 40F BY 6 AM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN AWAY AS THE SUN WORKS ON IT. BUT LITTLE TO NO WIND WILL MAKE IT A WONDERFUL LATE-SUMMER DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BACK UP TO THURS MAXES AND EVEN ADD A FEW DEGS ON - ESP IN THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE MIDWEST AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE GFS/NAM PROPAGATES IT FASTER...WHERE THE EC SLOWS THE TIMING DOWN...AND HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SPURRED ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPARK ALONG A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA. THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS ROTATING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS HAS FAR MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES...WITH DEEPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH PERIODICALLY...WHERE THE EC KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND A DIMINISHING WIND. A CALM WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VSBYS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WHILE KAOO/KUNV/KIPT COULD POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR ARND DAWN. THE REMAINING CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SIG VIS RESTRICTIONS FRI AM...DUE TO A PERSISTENT BREEZE AT KMDT AND KLNS AND DUE TO THE RIDGETOP LOCATION OF KJST. ANY EARLY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 13Z. FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY...THERE/S A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR THE AREA. OUTLOOK... SAT...EARLY AM FOG POSS AT KLNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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