Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261258 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 858 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS WERE SPREAD ACRS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN MTNS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NW MTNS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE LIKELY IMPROVING A BIT TO AROUND 1SM AS A STEADIER...COLD RAIN SPREADS NE ACROSS THAT REGION. HIGH RES MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TRACK SFC LOW INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN PA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP JUST SW OF THE LAURELS THIS MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES... RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN... AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION. LATEST...11Z HRRR DEPICTS A BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR A LINE FROM KELM...TO KUNV AND KIDI. THIS LINE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MOVES INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 21-22Z /WHERE MUCH BETTER ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...AND WEAK-MDT 0-1KM SHEAR WILL RESIDE/. BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE. AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST. 06Z INFO. STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS AT BFD. HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN AREAS. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR. MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVIOR NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DEVIOR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...MARTIN

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