Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 021021 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 521 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BOUT OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY/MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MAINLY RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ATTM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY JUST SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NW MTNS WHERE SCTD-NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A COATING TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE NE MTNS...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE WEST FACING SLOPES/RIDGETOPS TO THE WEST OF RT 219. CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN. MODERATELY STRONG SFC-850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPS TO STEADILY DROP ANOTHER 7-8 DEG F BY SUNRISE TODAY IN MOST PLACES. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN TODAY AS THE CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM/COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL POST FRONTAL SCATTERED SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING THE WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LOTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE FOR THE SE HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTN...BUT CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH ALL DAY OVER THE WESTERN MTNS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS SOME TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THINK MAIN TYPE OF PCPN WILL BE RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DID PUT SMALL AMTS OF .01 ICE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THAT OBJECT TEMPS WILL STILL LIKELY BE COLD. TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT MAY DROP A LITTLE...BEFORE COMING BACK UP LATE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR WED...TOOK SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE NW. TIGHT THICKNESS PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORT A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW PA TO SE PA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY NW OF OUR AREA. LEFT POPS UP...THINK FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. A TREND TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW. PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF FEBRUARY BEHIND. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WNW FLOW ESTABLISHING OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF EXITING STORM SYSTEM. OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL HANG ON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ THROUGH MID MORNING UNTIL WNW WINDS INCREASE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. CENTRAL MTNS MAINLY SEEING CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...WHICH WILL ALSO LIFT LATER THIS MORNING TO VFR. N/W HIGHER TERRAIN GETTING COMBO REDUCTIONS OF BOTH CIGS/VSBYS WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WE/LL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK... TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS AND LLWS DEVELOPING LATE AFT AND LASTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN. THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE. FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ024- 033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...RXR

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