Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 212053 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 353 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A ROLLER COASTER RIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BEFORE TRENDING COLDER BY THANKSGIVING DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CLOUDS AND FEW FLURRIES REMAIN OVER MY WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THESE TO BE SLOWLY MELTING BACK TO THE NORTH. AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LATER TODAY AND EARLY EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A LIGHT BREEZE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF NICELY...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTH...TO MID TEENS OVER THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... MOISTURE CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REPRESENTS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE THAT GUIDANCE AGREES WILL EJECT ENE INTO THE BROAD RIDGE THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN US IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW RETREATING INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE FLAT WAVE IS FCST TO MOVE THRU THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOCAL AREA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS MADE TO RESPOND BRINGING A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE THAT SHOULD HELP SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP FROM ABOUT LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH FREEZING PRECIP COULD ARISE IF RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS ALOFT MOVE ABOVE FREEZING EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOWER TO RECOVER UNDER THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS. GEFS SHOWS A 40-60% CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP THAT IS FALLING BEING FREEZING RAIN...WHILE THE SREF HAS A SMALLER PROBABILITY FOR THIS OUTCOME. EITHER WAY CONSENSUS QPFS ARE BARELY ABOVE MEASURABLE SO THIS SEEMS A SMALL ENOUGH THREAT AT THIS POINT TO ONLY MENTION HERE AND IN THE HWO BUT NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINE PRODUCTS FOR. BY AFTERNOON MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL END THE THREAT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPOTTY/LIGHT PCPN OVER THE NRN TIER SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITHIN ZONE OF RELATIVELY STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX AND LOW-MID LVL WAA ASSOCD WITH 40-50KT WSW LLJ ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE ERN GREAT LAKES MAY PROVIDE ADDNL LIFT. PTYPES ARE FCST TO BE PLAIN RAIN OVER THE NW ZONES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN -ZR OVER THE NERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE 2M TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 32F PER MULTI-MODEL/MOS BLEND. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOUDY...MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY WX ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. PHASING OF SPLIT-STREAM ENERGY WILL YIELD A DEEP 980MB LOW /-3 TO -4 STD MSLP/ LIFTING NWD THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO SERN CANADA ON MONDAY. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SUN NGT. RAISED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ABOVE WPC AND IN-LINE WITH THE MEAN ECENS MOS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL /NEAR RECORD HIGHS/ BEFORE THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT USHERS IN COLDER AIR. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN COLDER TO BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING AS THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING PERSISTENCE OF THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. FINALLY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR MORE WAVES DEVELOPING IN THE WRN ATLC DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MSTR SHIELD MAY CONTAIN SNOW. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE HIGH. THE OVERNIGHT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS NORTH. MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS. TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR ELSEWHERE. WED...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE

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