Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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284 FXUS61 KCTP 310941 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 541 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early this evening...possibly accompanied by a few sprinkles. High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth for Wednesday. Increasing moisture will flow north into Pennsylvania for Thursday and Friday...bringing a better chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms...ahead of another relatively weak cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface cold front is having a tough time clearing our far sern zones where temps and dewpoints are still in the low to mid 60s. Elsewhere, skies will be generally clear/sunny through the early afternoon hours thanks to a thin ne/sw sfc ridge. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Mid morning low temps will range from the upper 40s to around 50F across northwestern penn... to the lower 60s in the southeast. the light wind and areas of wet ground from Monday`s showers will lead to some patchy dense fog early today across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley...along with the Juniata River Valley and its tributaries. Slowly rising heights aloft and will provide a mostly sunny and warm day for residents of central PA on Tuesday. The exception may be during the mid to late afternoon hours as a weak...secondary cfront drifts se over the region. Some clouds...and maybe even a few sprinkles (or highly isolated showers) should accompany this boundary as 850-500 mb lapse rates climb to around 6c/km and sfc based capes climbs to several hundred j/kg (mainly across the central and western mtns...and the far lower Susq Valley. Nudged the temp grids toward the latest Superblend guidance which leads to high temps today ranging from the u70s over the Allegheny Plateau, to the m80s over the Susq Valley. A few spots could crack 87F in the far southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
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The weak secondary front will clear the SE zones with little fanfare early this evening. skies will become clear to partly cloudy tonight with a light north to NE breeze occurring as sfc high pressure slides by to our north. Lows tonight will vary from around 50F across the northern border...to near 60F in the valleys of Southern PA.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Ridge of high pressure should bring a mostly sunny Wednesday with warm amd dry conditions aided by comfortable dewpoints in the low 50s up north...and the mid and upper 50s elsewhere. Latest 00-06Z Models and ensembles show cold front moving into the area late Thursday into Friday. 12Z NAM is showing large scale flow to be less amplified and more zonal in a sense...so front not likely to slow down quite as much for late Friday into Sat. For Sunday into Monday...another weak system swings across the area. Adjusted parameters to fit in with others. A slow cool down as one heads into next weekend. At this time range...too far out for not having some spread in model solutions from day to day.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early this evening with minimal impacts. High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth for Wednesday. First question overnight will be duration of an MVFR stratocu deck forming over the SE, which should end as sunrise approaches. The other question will be potential for development of fog/mist due to the calming winds and clearing skies. Dewpoints lower than previous nights, but depressions not very large. So BFD, AOO, MDT and LNS could see MVFR vsbys /short-lived IFR/ until around 13Z. From mid morning onward, VFR conditions will be the rule with a light NW/N surface wind. For Wed, VFR continues except for some early morning local fog. OUTLOOK... Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Thu...A.M. cig reductions poss west. Chance of showers/tstms west. Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with restrictions poss. Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...RXR

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