Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 301514 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1114 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION EARLY TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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FORECAST BASED ON TRACKING RADAR MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. NARROW LINE OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE CWA. SO FAR NO LIGHTNING DETECTED IN THE CWA WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES INTO WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIR. WESTERN HALF OF CWA WILL BE DRY WITH DECREASING TD AS DRYER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS KMDT AND KLNS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SUN...MAINLY VFR. MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE

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