Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280914 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 514 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HRRR/MESO MDLS SHOW THE BATCH OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS N-CNTRL PA THRU ABOUT 10Z. THE SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE SHOULD TRAVERSE THE NW MTNS BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL END PCPN RISK FOR THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TREND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TO THE UPSIDE FOR FOG/HAZE AND LOW CIGS OVER THE LOWER SQV EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT OBS. MOIST BLYR WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS...NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LGT/VRB WINDS SHOULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMATION/EXPANSION. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS MAY BE IN ORDER BEFORE SENDING FINAL NDFD GRIDS. ONCE THE LLVL MSTR MIXES OUT BY MID MORNING...THIS AREA SEEMS PRIME FOR AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN GIVEN COMBO OF BEST MSTR AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF WEAK SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FCST TO SLOW/STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT VERY LOW POPS IN THE FAR SRN TIER. A SSELY LLVL FETCH MAY SPELL A LARGER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CORRIDOR FROM JST/AOO TO UNV AND IPT SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN TODAY WITH FROPA EXPECTED PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. INCREASED MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR WHICH TAKES READINGS UP TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F IN THE LOWER SQV. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW-MID 60S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW AN INCREASINGLY HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNAL PM CONVECTION. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MED RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS A CONTINUATION OF SUMMERLIKE WX INTO SATURDAY...WITH 12Z GEFS SHOWING ANOMALOUS 500MB HGTS AND SFC PRES OFF THE E COAST. A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA COMES LATE SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SOME MDL TIMING ISSUES WITH HOW FAST COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. HOWEVER...FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FROM ALL MDL DATA THAT THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF JUNE /MON AND TUE/ WILL BE COOL AND PERHAPS SHOWERY...WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND POTENTIAL OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. HAVE DECREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND INCREASED THEM DUE TO THE STREAMING OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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28/09Z...CIG AT BFD DROPPED TO IFR BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE NW IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. UPDATED LNS WHICH WENT DOWN 2 HOURS BEFORE FCST IFR ONSET AND CUT OUT IFR AT MDT WITH MVFR LOOKING LIKE THE MOST LKLY OUTCOME BASED ON OBS TRENDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT OTHER SITES ATTM. 28/06Z...-SHRA AT BFD SHOULD END BY 09Z FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS. UPSTREAM/NEARBY OBS SUGGEST IFR TO EVEN LOW IFR CIGS AND HAVE LOW MVFR FCST. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINIAL GIVEN FAVORABLY LGT SSW UPSLOPE FLOW AND TIGHT T/TD SPREAD BUT WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. OTHER TROUBLE SPOT(S) WILL BE OVER THE SE AIRFIELDS IN ZNY SECTOR WITH CVRG OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPANDING THROUGH DAYBREAK. LNS WENT DOWN QUICKER THAN FCST AND WILL NEED TO AMD. MDT WILL LKLY SEE A SLOWER DOWNSIDE TREND AND CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THERE (VS. LNS). IPT WILL BE ANOTHER WILDCARD AND RECENTLY DROPPED TO 2SM. VISBYS AT JST/AOO/UNV SHOULD STAY AOA HIGH MVFR RANGE. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH RISK OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY SERN TERMINALS AHEAD SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LIMITED CVRG AND RELATIVELY LOW POINT- PROBABILITY WILL PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE MD BORDER WITH A DEVELOPING SSELY FLOW PERHAPS SUPPORTING A BROADER AREA OF UPSLOW LOW CIGS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. ISOLD AFTERNOON TSTMS. SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD FROPA. SUN-MON...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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