Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 162020 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 420 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will push up from the south on Thursday and a cold front will move through the state on Friday bringing a few rounds of showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure will clear things out behind the front for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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GOES-16 shows a nice fair weather cumulus afternoon. Light winds and temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s. The cumulus will dissipate this evening. Pleasantly cool mid-August evening and overnight. Patchy fog mainly near water bodies. The moisture to our southwest should begin to spread higher clouds over the southwest early Thursday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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The PW values come up fast Thursday morning and our dew points will rise rapidly. It will be a warm humid data with increasing clouds and an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. The GEFS is not very robust with the probability of rain until late in the day and into the next period. Non-convective allowing models tend to be too wet and these models all suggest highest probability of showers is after 18Z. Well, it`s August.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The progression of a warm front north-eastward will be the best indicator for showers and thunderstorms, with them most likely Thursday night into Friday. A cold front out ahead of a strengthening closed mid level low will push through Friday afternoon and evening. Combined with moisture out ahead of this system the ensembles and models are in decent agreement on timing and progression bringing it through the mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday morning. SPC guidance for Friday places much of the area in a marginal risk for severe convection. There could be some severe convection later Thursday night with CAPE remaining high through the night. However, the amount/placement of forcing will be the question that period. Timing of the cold frontal passage is fairly early in the day over the west, but most of the area will be quite unstable on Friday afternoon and lingering into the evening in the SE. High pressure moves back in for Saturday. Based on NBM and latest mid range guidance have trended temperatures upward through the weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR into early tonight with high pressure and large-scale subsidence overhead. Fog impacts are expected again late tonight into Thursday morning after which much of the day on Thursday should be VFR. Scattered showers will pop up Thursday afternoon in the west and south and move northeastward. The coverage of these showers before 18Z is too low to even mention PROB30s for any site in this package. However, Thursday afternoon into Friday evening hold a much more widespread chance of thunderstorm impacts as a warm front lifts across the area and a cold front follows 24 hours later. .OUTLOOK... Thurs night-Fri...SCT-NMRS TSRA impacts likely. Sat-Mon...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm/Dangelo LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner AVIATION...Dangelo

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