Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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519 FXUS61 KCTP 271043 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 643 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will dominate for midweek. The high will move off the east coast setting up a warmer and more humid airflow for the end of the week. A cold front on Saturday will bring a brief break in the humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The line of showers, with a few strokes of lightning embedded is working across my eastern zones as of 6 am. The showers are out ahead of a diffuse cold front that the meso shows is still out over central Ohio. There is very little airmass change, only slightly cooler and drier. Models have the front over central Pa by early afternoon and east of my zones by nightfall. I followed ensembles and blended MOS which confine the best chance of rain mainly over my northern zones during the day. The southern extent is a low confidence forecast. High temps will be a little cooler than Monday, in the 60s to lower 70s. It will average some 5 to 10 deg cooler than normal for the first days of summer.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... Wednesday will be the only day of the forecast without at least the mention of rain as the high slides east toward the coast. Highs in the 70s to near 80 will still be several deg below normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... By Thursday we are forecast to be under a broad ridge with shortwave energy rippling along the southern extent of the westerlies, mainly through the lower lakes up into NY and New England. By the end of the week a new trough starts to carve out into the Gr Lakes and the southerly flow ahead of it will bring a return to the heat and humidity. The pattern becoming more humid will bring a mention of showers from Thursday into the weekend. A weak cold front is hinted at for Saturday but the front is progged to be weak, so temperatures don`t change much, just a bit of a break in the humidity and perhaps a smaller chance for showers. By Thursday the temps will be back above normal, and the warmer than normal temps will continue into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main concern overnight will be at BFD and MDT, where wet ground from earlier showers, combined with clearing skies and light wind, could result in fog. Latest radar has showers out ahead of several shortwave troughs which could bring prcip to JST, BFD and AOO. So have VCSH in the tafs though precip is light enough where reducing cigs and vsbys aren`t expected. However, with any added precipitation and with calm winds, BFD could see some shallow MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys between 09Z to 12Z. The flow should remain strong enough where vsbys restrictions aren`t a big concern at JST and AOO, however MVFR cigs could form. Elsewhere, confidence is high for widespread VFR conditions for most of the night. A weak frontal boundary will push through the region early Tuesday morning, accompanied by a few showers. Lack of moisture with this system should translate to a continuation of VFR conditions for much of central Pa. Any patchy fog should mix out by around 13Z. High pressure and associated dry air mass will build into the region later Tuesday, accompanied by widespread VFR conditions. .OUTLOOK... Wed...No sig wx expected. Thu-Fri...Isolated PM tsra impacts poss, mainly northern Pa. Sat...Scattered PM tsra impacts possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Ceru

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