Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCTP 181206
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
706 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017
An extended period of mild, spring-like weather with above
normal temperatures is expected through the end of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Skies are clear throughout central PA early today thanks to
upper ridge axis building across the Ohio Valley into western PA
as sfc ridge axis moves offshore. WSW boundary layer flow has
developed as a result...with WAA in progress across the region
and nary a cloud thanks to quite dry ambient conditions.
A dry warm front will lift northeast through the region
allowing temperatures to surge to near 20F above average. Highs
should eclipse 60F across much of southern and southeastern PA,
with low to mid 50s expected over the still snow-covered
northern mountains. Mainly sunny skies are expected to give way
to increasing high clouds late in the day in advance of an upper
low lifting out of the Mississippi Valley. There is a slight chc
of a shower near the Maryland border through this evening.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Isolated showers possible over southern portions of the Laurel
Highlands and south Central Mountains as filling upper low
tracks through the Virginias this evening through overnight.
Shower chances along the MD border diminish by 12z Sunday as
northwest flow aloft returns. Sfc high pressure builds eastward
from the Ohio Valley into western Pa during the afternoon.
850 mb temps are suppressed as a result Sunday afternoon...
resulting in sfc temps a few degrees cooler than the downslope-
aided highs from Saturday afternoon.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The mild temperatures will continue through the extended
forecast as no cold air push in sight. The warmest readings will
come on Sat/Sun and again from Wed-Fri. High temperatures in
general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min
temperatures mainly above freezing.
A very weak cold front will push across the region Sat night.
However, it has little to no mid level moisture to work with, so
may see a light shower from the Laurels across the southern
tier, but otherwise no precipitation is expected.
Rather strong ridge builds in for early next week. Surface ridge
axis splitting the region will bring a bit of northerly/
northeast flow to eastern sections, suppressing temps a bit
(but still remaining well above average).
Weak system slides by to the north Tue night, and brings quick
chance for showers. Flow turns SW by Wed as temps rebound.
Pattern becomes more amplified late week as a system over the
central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds
will increase late week, with warm front lifting through Thu
into Fri - bringing increasing rain chances heading into the
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Expect widespread VFR flying today with surface winds increasing
from 220-250 degrees. Gusts 20-25kt over the western 1/2. High
to mid clouds will increase this afternoon through tonight from
southwest to northeast. Guidance/soundings continue to show
shallow moist layer with weak upslope flow producing sub-VFR
cigs at KBFD/KJST. Highest confidence in lowest cigs at KJST and
can`t rule out a period of IFR. Models show very light pcpn over
the southwest airspace into Sunday morning which is more likely
attributable to low cigs/spotty drizzle.
Sun...Sub-VFR cigs psbl NW 1/3 with spotty -RA/DZ.
Mon...VFR/No sig wx.
Tue-Wed...Sub-VFR psbl with chance of rain showers.
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