Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 181206 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 706 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An extended period of mild, spring-like weather with above normal temperatures is expected through the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Skies are clear throughout central PA early today thanks to upper ridge axis building across the Ohio Valley into western PA as sfc ridge axis moves offshore. WSW boundary layer flow has developed as a result...with WAA in progress across the region and nary a cloud thanks to quite dry ambient conditions. A dry warm front will lift northeast through the region allowing temperatures to surge to near 20F above average. Highs should eclipse 60F across much of southern and southeastern PA, with low to mid 50s expected over the still snow-covered northern mountains. Mainly sunny skies are expected to give way to increasing high clouds late in the day in advance of an upper low lifting out of the Mississippi Valley. There is a slight chc of a shower near the Maryland border through this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Isolated showers possible over southern portions of the Laurel Highlands and south Central Mountains as filling upper low tracks through the Virginias this evening through overnight. Shower chances along the MD border diminish by 12z Sunday as northwest flow aloft returns. Sfc high pressure builds eastward from the Ohio Valley into western Pa during the afternoon. 850 mb temps are suppressed as a result Sunday afternoon... resulting in sfc temps a few degrees cooler than the downslope- aided highs from Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The mild temperatures will continue through the extended forecast as no cold air push in sight. The warmest readings will come on Sat/Sun and again from Wed-Fri. High temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures mainly above freezing. A very weak cold front will push across the region Sat night. However, it has little to no mid level moisture to work with, so may see a light shower from the Laurels across the southern tier, but otherwise no precipitation is expected. Rather strong ridge builds in for early next week. Surface ridge axis splitting the region will bring a bit of northerly/ northeast flow to eastern sections, suppressing temps a bit (but still remaining well above average). Weak system slides by to the north Tue night, and brings quick chance for showers. Flow turns SW by Wed as temps rebound. Pattern becomes more amplified late week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase late week, with warm front lifting through Thu into Fri - bringing increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Expect widespread VFR flying today with surface winds increasing from 220-250 degrees. Gusts 20-25kt over the western 1/2. High to mid clouds will increase this afternoon through tonight from southwest to northeast. Guidance/soundings continue to show shallow moist layer with weak upslope flow producing sub-VFR cigs at KBFD/KJST. Highest confidence in lowest cigs at KJST and can`t rule out a period of IFR. Models show very light pcpn over the southwest airspace into Sunday morning which is more likely attributable to low cigs/spotty drizzle. Outlook... Sun...Sub-VFR cigs psbl NW 1/3 with spotty -RA/DZ. Mon...VFR/No sig wx. Tue-Wed...Sub-VFR psbl with chance of rain showers.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Steinbugl

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