Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240848 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 448 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers will exit central Pennsylvania this morning as a cold front pushes eastward across the region. Drier and cooler air with comfortable humidity will arrive and last through much of the coming week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Cold front now pushing into the central and north central mountains with a final broken line of showers, which will exit eastern areas by 12z. Flash Flood Watch was cancelled as heavier rain slid east of the Watch area. Runoff persists this morning with rises on flashier creeks and streams bringing a few points like Confluence to caution stage before decreasing later this morning. The rest of today will feature improving conditions, with just a slight chc/low chc of afternoon showers across the West Central/Northwest and North Central Mountains where lapse rates are steep enough to support moderate cumulus towers. Think the remainder of central and southeast PA will be dry after the front passes by 900 AM. Afternoon highs should range from the mid 70s north to the lower to middle 80s southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Any late afternoon showers will diminish quickly this evening as diurnal heating is lost. Skies will become mostly clear and it will be very comfortable overnight over especially northern and western sections where lows will bottom out around 50F. Mins across the southeast will fall to the lower 60s. Sunday will be a similar afternoon to Saturday...with lapse rates steep enough to support isolated to scattered afternoon showers over mainly western and northern sections. Highs will be several degress cooler throughout...ranging from the upper 60s northwest to around 80F southeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Models have trended toward much better agreement with the evolution of the seasonably strong large scale upper trough over the Eastern U.S. A couple of shortwave impulses reflecting weak surface fronts or troughs will provide a limited/mainly diurnal opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low- topped thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. However, much of the this period will be pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting low humidity and below normal temperatures relative to late June climatology. The trough is fcst to lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by the middle of the week, followed by a resurgence of the Southeast U.S. upper ridge. Models and ensembles show the ridge breaking down in the west as a trough shifts east across the Rockies into the Plains. Southerly flow increasing ahead of its attendant frontal system should result in an upward/warmer trend in temperatures accompanied by low level moisture/humidity. Expect max/min temps to get back to seasonal levels around midweek and likely reaching above normal levels by next Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Moisture associated with the remnants of TS Cindy now moving rapidly eastward across Pennsylvania. Last band of heavier rain and embedded convection now across the central southern tier counties extending into the Lower Susquehanna region. Radar also depicting scattered shower activity along the cold front which is just about into KBFD at 06z. Rain and front will rapidly slide east across Central Pennsylvania between 06z and 10z. While moist upslope flow will keep lower ceilings in western mountains a bit past 12z, most areas across the central and southern areas will rapidly improve to VFR with the frontal passage. Saturday will feature mainly VFR conditions after any lingering lower ceilings in the west lift by mid morning. A brisk west- northwest wind of 10 to 20 knots can also be expected behind the system during the late morning and afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Sat...Scattered restrictions in AM showers...otherwise becoming VFR. Sun...Mainly VFR. Mon-Tue...Mainly VFR, but with a chance of SHRA/TSRA. Wed...VFR. && .EQUIPMENT... KCCX radar will be offline for approximately 4 days starting Saturday, June 24th for technicians to install the first of 4 major service-life extension upgrades. The work on the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations and will be delayed if hazardous weather is forecast. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Lambert NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Jung EQUIPMENT...

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