Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 261956 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 356 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY...AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... ANOTHER NEARLY PERFECT LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN PROGRESS WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS...A LIGHT BREEZE AND HUMIDITY THAT IS ONLY STARTING TO NUDGE INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE. HIGHS TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR 80 ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND IN THE LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE OF THE RARE TIMES THIS AUGUST. A FEW DEGREES WARMER...OTHERWISE THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO LAST NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THAT WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE IN SAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE DWINDLING RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR INDICATES THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND WEAKENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR CONVECTION WHICH SEEMS LIKE IT WILL HAVE SOME CAPE TO WORK WITH. THE WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...SO THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND GUST OR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. OPERATIONAL NAM COOKS UP CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000J WHILE THE SREF AND GEFS ARE MORE MODEST...BUT STILL NOT NEGLIGIBLE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY NUDGING 90 FOR THE LAST TIME THIS SEASON OVER THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. THE BULK OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REACH 80 OR ABOVE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUPPORTING WEDNESDAY FROPA LIFTS OUT. THIS RIDGING...ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF OF THE COAST RETURN SLOW WILL HELP PULL THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN PA ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY WILL SURGE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS PROGGED TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND LIFT TO EASTERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT REACHING NRN PA ON SUNDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND TO TALL THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS NEWD. CURRENT TIMING PLACES THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST PA ON MONDAY WITH A SFC WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY. THIS SLOWER...LESS AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT IS LESS UNSETTLED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. CLOUDY CONDS ON MONDAY WILL BRING MAX TEMPS BACK TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IT WILL BE DEJA-VU ALL OVER AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION...BUT THE EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING IN AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH THRU THE AIRSPACE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...LATE-NIGHT-EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.