Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 291918 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 318 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION. VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... SCT/BKN CU OVER THE HILLS WILL MOST LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED THIS EVENING WITHOUT ANY GAINING ENOUGH STRENGTH/HEIGHT TO ATTAIN SHOWER STATUS. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE L60S OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE REGION. BUT THEY HAVE ALSO DRIED/MIXED OUT TO THE L50S IN THE NWRN MTNS. NIL POPS STILL GOOD...AS ANY SMALL ECHO WHICH SHOWS UP ON RADAR MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS - WHICH SHOULD BE OF LESSER COVERAGE THAN SAT MORNING. THEN...THE TEMPS RISE EVEN BETTER...ADDING ANOTHER 3-4F ONTO SAT/S MAXES. RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS STARTING TO GET PRESSED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SLIGHT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. THUS...SUPPORT IN THE FORMS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE ON SUNDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEEP THEM MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA AS AXIS OF THE DYING TROUGH. SREF POPS WAY TOO AMBITIOUS. POPS FROM MOS ARE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE WILL ALLOW FOR. WILL KEEP THEM 50 OR LESS NW AND CLOSE TO OR BELOW 20 IN THE SE HALF. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH 850HPA TEMPS RUNNING 16-18C WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LOW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WHICH ARE FCST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS MOISTURE DIFFUSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S....SOME OF IT WILL GRADUALLY CRAWL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR THAT WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MENTION OF AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE LATTER FEATURE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK...TAPERING BACK TEMPS A BIT. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DIURNAL CU AROUND THE REGION SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SO THE WIND SHOULD STILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS MUCH AS IT DID SAT A.M. SINCE DEWPOINTS STAY IN THE U50S TO L60S...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKY OVERHEAD. THE LONE PLACE WHERE THERE COULD BE A PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT WOULD BE KBFD. HOWEVER...THE CHC IS SO LOW THAT ONLY A VCSH IS NECESSARY. UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TRY TO WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS AND HIGHER TEMPS...THERE SHOULD WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA FORM OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY AFTN. WITH THE TIME OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY/COVERAGE NOT UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF VALID PD...WHILE JUST BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD...WILL THEN HINT AT THE SCT TSRA EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN WITH A PROB30 AT KBFD FOR THE FAR END OF THE FCST PD. ALL BUT KMDT/KLNS DO HAVE A 20-30PCT CHC OF A SHRA SUNDAY AFTN. THE CONVECTION WILL BE FUELED MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEAT AND SHOULD DWINDLE THROUGH THE EVENING. MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. THEN THE LARGE RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD WILL JOIN UP WITH THE RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST/WRN ATLANTIC...PINCHING OFF ANY TRACE OF THE TROUGH. THUS...MAINLY HOT...HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE TO NO CHC OF SHOWERS WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK. OUTLOOK... MON...MAINLY PM SHRA/TSRA POSS. TUE-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DANGELO

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