Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 160548 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 148 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/... 130 AM UPDATE... FLURRIES ALL THAT IS LEFT AND IR SHOWS UPSTREAM CLOUDS ALMOST TOTALLY GONE. SKY - AND ALL - GRIDS ALL IN LINE. TEMPS JUST AT THE CUSP OF FZG IN THE LOWER SUSQ RIGHT ON TIME. IF ONLY ALL FORECASTS WORKED OUT SO WELL. PREV... THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH MY EASTERNMOST COUNTIES. PUBLIC REPORTS INDICATE THAT SOME SLEET AND WET SNOW IS MIXED IN...BUT AIR TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART SO WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A SLUSHY COATING ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BANDED SNOW SHOWERS ARE MORE THE RULE AND SOME PARTS OF THE NW HAVE PICKED UP A COATING WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUSTY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH ALL AREAS BEING BELOW FREEZING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY REMAINING PUDDLES OR WET PAVEMENT COULD FREEZE UP AND CAUSE LOCALIZED SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE NW WIND AND GUSTS WILL PEAK EARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS IN COMBINATION WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z. CLOUDS WILL OF COURSE LINGER OFF LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE NRN MTS. MIN TEMPS EARLY WED ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE NEAR...OR EVEN SEVERAL DEG F BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC RECORDS AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLEARING AND SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE 20S. EVEN THE SE WILL GET INT THE M20S - EVEN WITH A 10-15KT NWRLY WIND THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES WHICH HAVE JUST PASSED THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN DATE OF LAST SPRING FREEZE...AND A FREEZE WATCH WAS RECENTLY POSTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAME SE ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A MAINLY SUNNY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS AVERAGE MINUS 8-12...MAXS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND UPPER 40S IN THE SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STG RIDGING WILL EXTEND SWWD ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM STG HP CELL CENTERED OVER MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AGAIN WED NGT INTO AM THURS...AND THEREFORE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO +3-4SD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE EASTERLY MARITIME LLVL FLOW WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN/DZ POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE SERN ZONES. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI-SAT WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS IDEA BUT TIMING DIFFS MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE REAMPLIFYING UPSTREAM...WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED ALONG THE WEST COAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE- AVG 500MB RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS AND TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE NERN CONUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN DUE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE LW FLOW...WITH SEVERAL LOW-MEDIUM CHC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN IN THE OUTER PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS -10 TO -15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MILDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LKLY STILL AVG BELOW LATE APRIL CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS CENTRAL PA...SNOW BANDS IN ITS WAKE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH OVERNIGHT...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUBSIDES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY FADE BY 06Z. MOST SITES ARE AROUND OR ABOVE MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. WED THRU FRI SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY SAT. OUTLOOK... .WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR. .SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN /AND POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/. .SUN...MAINLY VFR UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. && .CLIMATE... MORNING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WILL CHALLENGE RECORD LOWS. BELOW ARE SELECTED RECORDS FROM AROUND THE AREA. AOO... WEDNESDAY 24/1950/... THURSDAY 23/1980/ BFD... WEDNESDAY 18/1980/... THURSDAY 16/1983/ IPT... WEDNESDAY 20/1943/... THURSDAY 25/1904/ MDT... WEDNESDAY 25/1943/... THURSDAY 29/1980/ && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-063>066. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU CLIMATE...CTP

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