Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCTP 250601
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
201 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
A ridge of high pressure will build over the northeastern U.S.
bringing a noticeably more summer-like pattern into the first
part of the holiday weekend. Slightly cooler weather may arrive
for Memorial Day.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Wisps of cirrus are all that we should see through the rest of the
night. Atmosphere is pretty dry for the summer-like temperatures
coming up again today. Thus, it will be tough to get any cu to
pop. If they do, it will be over the ridges and very sparse
coverage. One exception may be over the NE where some deeper
convection could make a weak shower over central NY and drop it
down through the Endless Mountains late in the day. Otherwise,
POPs will be nil. Max temps should be 1-3 degrees warmer than
Tuesday thanks to the sunshine and a slightly milder start to the
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Clouds start to increase from the west late tonight. But, it
should remain clear in the eastern half of the area all night. The
wind never quite dies off, so very mild mins are expected. The low
level moisture/dewpoints should be on the rise. A spot or two in
the southern tier may not go below 60F. Will keep POPs low for the
overnight, but a stray shower is possible by sunrise in the
Muggy is the word for Thursday. Most guidance brings dewpoints
into the 60s all over the region. The limiting factor for
convection will probably be the presence of some morning mid-level
clouds. But, these may slide to the east a bit and allow the
heating to bring the W/NW into the 80s. This results in CAPE
near/over 1000J/kg. All the convection should be diurnally-
driven, but the GFS does ride a very weak short-wave trough right
overhead at peak heating time, too. Thus, it is more bullish on
the QPF/POPs than the NAM and ECMWF. POPs will be held at 50-60
pct over the Alleghenies and 30-50 in the rest of the region for
the afternoon and early evening.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended guidance continues to show a strong ridge over the
mid Atlantic and the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This
will bring the arrival of the first extended period of summer-
like temperatures and humidity.
By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. However the strong ridge should provide enough subsidence
to keep any convection at bay Thursday and Friday. The GFS is
very aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the
eastern U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. However
given the southerly flow of moisture, the warmer temperatures and
the possibility of a mid level trough advecting through, Saturday
should have a decent chance for some afternoon convection. The
trend is for the ridge to break down late in the weekend and for
cooler air to move into the region early next week. This could
bring temperatures to slightly below normal.
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure at the sfc and aloft will bring minimal clouds and
primarily VFR conditions - though some patchy MVFR fog is poss in
some valleys of the southeast toward sunrise. NW winds around 10
mph earlier will pick back up to 7-10 mph from the west on Wed.
Primarily VFR conditions will continue through the next several
days...with brief impacts from mainly sct afternoon thunderstorms
from later Thu into the weekend. Showers and storms will be mainly
across the west later on thursday.
Thu-Sun...Isold...mainly pm tsra impacts possible.
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