Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 181036 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 536 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the Ohio Valley this morning will build east across Pennsylvania later today. An anomalous upper level ridge will build off the east coast next week, with a dying cold front pushing into the state on Wednesday, then returning north as a warm front late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Upslope flow will yield some lingering flurries over the northwest mountains or patchy -fzdz over the Laurel Highlands early this morning. However, falling inversion heights should cause any lingering light precip to end around dawn. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build east into the region later today, supplying fair and mild weather. Upstream satellite imagery and model soundings indicate there will be some lingering stratocu over the Alleghenies through about midday. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies expected. Mixing down ensemble mean 925mb temps of around 0C translate to expected max temps from the upper 30s over the high terrain of the Alleghenies, to the mid 40s over the Susq Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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High pressure will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight as a warm front approaches from the Ohio Valley. A developing southerly breeze should keep temps from falling much tonight, especially over the western portion of the forecast area. However, lingering snow cover and lighter winds over the eastern counties will likely allow readings to dip a bit below guidance with min temps between 25-30F east of the Susq River. Model guidance indicating a good chance of light rain Monday, as warm front lifts into western Pa, while wedge of cooler air remains trapped east of the Appalachians. Highest POPS of 90 pct are painted across the northwest mountains, where best isentropic lift indicated at nose of low level jet.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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All medium range guidance continues to show a building anomalous upper ridge along the east coast next week, with central Pa breaking into the warm sector Tue and Wed. Record high temps appear quite possible Tue/Wed, when ensemble mean 850 temps jump to around 12C. Even conservatively mixing to just 925mb would support max temps between 70-75F over much of the area. Both 00Z ECENS and NAEFS indicate a dying cold front will push through the region Wed PM, accompanied by a chance of showers. This boundary will likely stall just south of Pa before returning north as a warm front late in the week with a renewed chance of rain. Med range models do indicate there could be just enough low level cold air for the potential of some fzra Thu night or early Friday across northern Pa.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread IFR will continue at all TAF sites due to the heavy snow bands across the region for at least the next 3 hours. Conditions will improve for non elevated TAF sites west to east between 03Z to 06Z. During this timeframe, IFR is expected but could improve to MVFR as the night continues. Conditions should improve across eastern areas shortly after Midnight...as the storm quickly moves out of the area. Some lower clouds and light snow showers could linger across the central and western areas to just after sunrise on Sunday. Overall...not a bad day for Sunday. Lots of sun by late morning. Winds will die down by late aft. Some showers and lower clouds next week...mainly for a brief time Monday...and later on Wednesday...but much of the time will be dry with VFR conditions. Also on the mild side. Outlook... Mon...Restrictions return with some light rain. Tue-Wed...Restrictions likely in rain showers, mainly NW at times...and late Wed elsewhere. Thu...Clearing north. Still a chance of showers north. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Ceru/Martin

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