Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 242131 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 531 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Much drier air is settling in and stick around through much of the coming week. Widely scattered showers may pop up each afternoon across the northern part of the state, though. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... One pixel just showed up on the radar mosaic over Crawford Co. A few taller/MDT cumulus cover our NW counties, but nothing should make more than a sprinkle at that depth - especially considering the dryness of the air below cloud base. The instability will still justify mentioning an isold shra this aftn and very early this evening in the NW as some clouds could grow slightly taller. Otherwise, the gusty winds will slacken off - esp in the eastern valleys a hour or so before sunset. The rest of the night should be very quiet with decoupling and little or no worry for fog or stratus. A patch of lower clouds may develop in the Laurels with an upslope there. Mins will be just under 50F in the N and above 60 in the SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Sunday will be highly similar to Saturday as heating bubbles up the cu. Wind will be similarly west and gust into the teens. However, there is a slightly higher chc for shra than Sat up in the N during the aftn/eve as a short wave rolls toward us across the lakes with good-timing for meeting up with peak heating. Highs will be several degrees cooler throughout...ranging from the upper 60s northwest to around 80F southeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Seasonably strong large scale upper trough will settle over the Eastern U.S. A couple of shortwave impulses reflecting weak surface fronts or troughs will provide a limited/mainly diurnal opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low- topped thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, especially across northern portions of CWA. However, much of the this period will be pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting low humidity and below normal temperatures relative to late June climatology. The trough is fcst to lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by the middle of the week, followed by a resurgence of the Southeast U.S. upper ridge. Models and ensembles show the ridge breaking down in the west as a trough shifts east across the Rockies into the Plains. Southerly flow increasing ahead of its attendant frontal system should result in an upward/warmer trend in temperatures accompanied by low level moisture/humidity midweek. Expect max/min temps to rise above normal levels with noticeably increasing humidity by next Friday/Saturday along with an increase in convective activity.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions across all of Central Pennsylvania this afternoon. Have removed any mention of precipitation across the north in the 21z update. Still seeing some wind gusts around 20 knots, but winds expected to diminish below 10 knots in all locations after 00z. Current TAFs mention the chance of some MVFR/IFR patchy clouds in the Laurel Highlands overnight due to weak upslope flow and residual moisture. Will evaluate further with 00z issuance to see if this might be dropped. Chance of scattered across the northern tier counties for Sunday afternoon. Will likely include mention of VCSH in KBFD with the 00z issuance. .OUTLOOK... Mon-Thu...Mainly VFR. Isold-Sct aftn shra far N.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KCCX radar will be offline for approximately 4 days starting today, Saturday, June 24th, for technicians to install the first of 4 major service-life extension upgrades. The work on the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations and will be delayed if hazardous weather is forecast. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Jung/Dangelo EQUIPMENT...

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