Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 282302 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 702 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... FEW SPECKLES ON RADAR ALONG THE MD BORDER...BUT NONE SEEM TO BE AMOUNTING TO ANYTHING AT ALL. DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING AS THE SFC WINDS ARE NORTHERLY. LOWER SUSQ SITES MAY HOLD IN OR RECOVER INTO THE U50S...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE U40S AND L-M50S. MESO MDLS HINT AT THE CONVECTION IN NJ INTENSIFYING THE FRONT IN SERN PA...AND THEN SLIDE SOME PRECIP BACK TO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT AS THE WINDS GO MORE NE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL JUST KEEP THE 20 POPS A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT AFTER A SHORT DRY SPELL. OTHERWISE...VERY CLEAR AND DRY FOR 99 PCT OF CENTRAL PA. SFC WINDS MAY START TO VEER AROUND TO THE S BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW THE HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...SUPPORTING SCATTERED DIURNAL PM CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH UPPER LVL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWARD-DRIFTING PULSE TYPE TSRA WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SVR WX. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE L80S MOST PLACES...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM AVG ACROSS WARREN CO DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SSE FLOW. BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RING OF FIRE...AND OVER ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FRI AFTN. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF FRI NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIR AND SUMMERLIKE WITH HIGH DWPTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S. MED RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS A CONTINUATION OF SUMMERLIKE WX INTO SATURDAY...WITH 12Z GEFS SHOWING ANOMALOUS 500MB HGTS AND SFC PRES OFF THE E COAST. HOWEVER AS SATURDAY CONTINUES THE HIGH WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE A FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE LARGER MODEL TIMING DIFFS HAVE BEEN RESOLVED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW PUSHING COLD FRONT THRU SUN MORNING. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN 12Z GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC HIGH OVR NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION SUN-MON..PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN SUN-MON..12Z GEFS MEAN QPF BTWN SUN-MON RANGES FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCHES. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE POOL SHIFTING IT SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON. THIS HOWEVER COMES IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER EASTERN CANADA. HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. IMPROVING CONDS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO PA. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY LOOKING AT SOME HIGH CLDS OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS HIGHER AT LNS...THUS ADDED SOME FOG TO THE FCST FROM 10Z TO 13Z FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE FAR WESTERN AREAS LATER ON FRIDAY...THUS HAVE VCSH IN FOR BFD AND JST. OUTLOOK... SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD FROPA. SUN-TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN

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