Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 252226 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 626 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure over the area will result in another cool night across the Keystone state. Low pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes on Monday, and push a cold front through the region by Tuesday morning. The forecast becomes less certain for the rest of the week as a cut off low forms over the eastern United States. Cooler and at times wet weather will prevail for the later part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... Been watching an area of clouds over VA. Time of day and strong heating has push the leading edge of the clouds away from south central PA. A fine early fall evening will prevail outside. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Expect some clouds to edge back north from VA late tonight into Monday. A rather cool airmass is at low levels, and given timing, hard to see a large rise in temperatures on Monday, even with 850 mb temperatures still on the warm side. Thus did lower max temperatures a little. SPC has MRGL outlook for the far west on Monday. This looks ok. While more heating will be likely to the east, it will be less unstable. Did adjust pop and weather groups some. Not looking at a lot of rain, but expect some across most of the area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The mid week period will bring the large upper level low through the Great Lakes and down into the Ohio Valley. This will keep cold air advection through the region...keeping temperatures slightly below normal. The low will slowly progress eastward with model PWATS increasing through the latter half of the week. Couple this with the Southwesterly flow and will allow for an increase of POPS Through the second half of the week and into the weekend. The biggest question becomes what will be the progression and timing of the upper level low. Some runs of the GEFS have it opening up into a wave and a few have it retrograding westward. So what may have been yet another dry period could turn cooler and wetter - or at least cloudier in the latter half of the period. So given this uncertainty have increased POPS through Friday. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure over the region will ensure clear skies and light wind this evening. However, as the high slips off the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight, an increasingly moist se flow will likely cause low cigs to creep northward from Virginia into the Laurel Highlands. Latest model soundings support the idea of IFR cigs at KJST and mvfr cigs at KAOO by around 09Z. The odds of IFR cigs at KJST should decrease by midday Monday, as the wind shifts from se to a downsloping south wind. Elsewhere, stratus should expand to cover most of the region, with MVFR or low VFR cigs anticipated based on model soundings. A cold front will approach from the west late in the day, but expect associated showers and thunderstorms to hold off until the evening hours. Outlook... Tue-Fri...A chance of showers, most of the time it should be dry.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Martin NEAR TERM...Martin SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Dangelo/Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.