Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290810 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 410 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. VEERING UPPER LVL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR THE MISS VALLEY WILL CAUSE FRONT TO SLOW THIS MORNING. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND UPSTREAM RADAR DATA SUPPORTS A NARROW BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE SC MTNS NE INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS COASTING DOWNWARD WEST OF FRONT AND BLEND OF LATEST LAMP AND HRRR DATA SUPPORTS TEMPS BY DAWN RANGING FROM THE M40S OVR THE NW MTNS TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... ALL MDL DATA PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION IS RESULTING IN POST-FRONTAL 700-850MB FGEN FORCING IN ALL THE MDLS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR 90 PCT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS. BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER STILL- WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM THE L50S NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KBGM TO KIPT AND KAOO AT 07Z. THIS FRONT WAS PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 7 KFT AGL...AND VSBYS OF 6SM OR GREATER. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN PENN TODAY /FROM KJST NORTH TO KBFD/...THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF A COOLER/WESTERLY FLOW CONTAINING LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE. BRIEF...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z TODAY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY. EXPECT WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION UNDER A BKN HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU CLOUD DECK. OUTLOOK... THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST. FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS. SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR- MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

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