Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260624 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 124 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will build east across Pennsylvania Sunday, then off the east coast early next week. Low pressure will track north of the area during the middle of the week, with a trailing cold front pushing through Pennsylvania late Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Air mass change across the CWA overnight with blustery and much colder conditions. Radar shows scattered lake effect snow showers across the Alleghenies. Low inversion heights and warm ground will result in only very light accums of less than an inch across the Allegheny Plateau. Model soundings showing a well mixed boundary layer up to 850mb overnight, supporting gusts around 25kts. Temps will continue to fall under CAA overnight, bottoming out in the low 20s across the high terrain of the Alleghenies, to the low 30s across the LSV.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure ridge will build into the region Sunday, causing winds to subside and any lingering snow showers/flurries to end by midday over the western mountains. Although the day should start cloudy across the western/northern mountains, expect stratocu to begin breaking up (even across the nw mountains) by late in the day based on model RH fields. Temperatures will return to near or slightly below average for late February - but it will feel much colder given the recent run of magnificent spring-like warmth. High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday night with clouds increase ahead of shortwave tracking through the Mid MS/OH Valley. Model blend keeps pcpn well to the SW of the area through daybreak Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak shortwave brings chance for light precip on Monday, though lower levels look fairly dry as surface high exits eastward. Elongated low developing over the central U.S. on Tue will edge a warm frontal boundary toward the region, bringing chance for light precipitation and ushering in another round of warmer than normal temperatures (though not as high as the past few days). By Wed, upper wave catches up to the low, bringing a more significant rainfall, followed by a cold frontal passage. Colder and very breezy conditions then in store for late week in NW flow, along with sct lake effect snow showers in the NW Mtns. Cooler air lingers into the weekend as upper flow remains from the NW while 1037mb surface high pressure slides through. Yet another weather system slides through the Great Lakes this weekend, with center of low remaining to our north. But shower chances increase for the NW half. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Gusty winds across the region today. Some snow showers and flurries across the region until early afternoon, when winds shift more to the west and southwest. MDT and LNS not likely to see flurries, but still have some clouds early. All sites should be VFR by early to mid afternoon, as winds shift, as noted above. Some rain showers Tuesday into Wednesday, as winds shift to the south, and warm advection sets in. Outlook... Mon...VFR. Tue-Wed...Rain showers/Sub-VFR reductions likely. Thu...Strong FROPA early with gusty winds. Sub-VFR likely west. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Ross/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Martin

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