Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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536 FXUS61 KCTP 120755 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 255 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...DELIVERING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SNOW SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DANGEROUS COLD AND VERY LOW WIND CHILLS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SATL/RADAR COMPOSITE AT 07Z SHOWING LINGERING LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU/FLURRIES ACROSS THE N MTNS. BACKING BLYR FLOW SHOULD CAUSE SKIES TO CLEAR OVER THE N MTNS BTWN 06Z-12Z. ELSEWHERE...SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED UPON ARRIVAL OF SFC HIGH. LIGHT WIND...MCLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA...WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS PROBABLY DIPPING JUST BLW ZERO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WSW WIND. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SW AS SOME MEAGER WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE WELL- ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE MEAGER /GENERALLY UNDER 1/2 INCH. TEMPS WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE 20S ALL OVER BUT THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL LIKELY LIMIT THEM TO THE UPPER TEENS. ARCTIC FRONT AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STEEP 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM WILL PLOW ACROSS THE STATE FRI EVENING IN THE NW...AND OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE. THE STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RTS AND STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG FRONT. BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDS WILL LIKELY CREATE TRAFFIC/TRAVEL PROBLEMS FRI EVENING. CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NW MTNS BTWN 00Z-03Z SAT...WHERE MDLS INDICATE A BIT OF CAPE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER PER LATEST SPC GUIDANCE. 00Z NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST SQUALLS WILL FALL OVR THE N MTNS...CLOSEST PATH OF SHORTWAVE. WIND CHILLS DIP TO UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA /-15F/ EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEG F BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE BY THEN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... *IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. POLAR VORTEX DIVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH ARCTIC BLAST INTO CENTRAL PA SAT- SUN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP A MEAN TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST 11/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK...BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT SPREAD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY MON-TUE BUT THE TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD END ON A MILDER NOTE. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REACHING -25F WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET IN LATER SHIFTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP. A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL SPREAD HAS NARROWED A BIT CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST NEXT MON-TUE. THE 11/12Z OPERATIONAL EC REMAINS ON THE WWD EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN GEM AND GFS/GEFS. THE GFS/GEFS HAVE BOTH TRENDED WWD FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PTYPES BUT ALL THE MODELS ARE SIGNALING A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THE LKLY RANGE FOR DAY 5.5-6 /MON NGT-TUESDAY/. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ONLY LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING ARE CONFINED NEAR LAKE ERIE SHORE...BUT SCT CIG RESTRICTIONS PERSIST IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MAJORITY OF THE REGION BEFORE RESTRICTIONS RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. W/SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS. TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR IN INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND THESE BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE. MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY NW HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-037-041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR

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