Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230003 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 703 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build into the area and last through the weekend. Another cold front will push through Pennsylvania on Saturday. A very dry period is in store through the beginning of December.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Clouds are not going anywhere. The NAM seems to be doing well with this trend - so far. There may not be any clearing over the Allegheny Mountains until very late tonight, if at all. Some clearing over the far eastern end of LE and wrn NY is an indication that the outlook is not all dismal, as the subsidence must be winning there. However, the NAM does have this slot of more-dry sky, and it closes it back up for the most part - leaving only a thin slot running thru IPT later this evening/early tonight. Temps may stay up in the NW where clearing is unlikely. But, that is also the location of the thermal trough, and it may be tough to keep BFD from falling 7 more degs F overnight. Prev.. Still a few sprinkles and flurries occurring downwind of the GLAKS this afternoon, but with inversion heights lowering rapidly and high pressure nosing in, the duration and intensity of lingering snow showers into this evening will limit accums to additional trace to coating amounts over portions of the Northwest Mountains. By this evening, any lingering snow showers/flurries across the northwest mountains should end, as the surface ridge axis builds into the area. Clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow temps to fall below seasonal norms, with readings mostly in the low to mid 20s by dawn.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... High pressure at the surface will ensure dry weather and light wind for Thanksgiving...despite passage of upper front which will bring an increase of mid and high level clouds especially in the afternoon hours. Max temps should range from the mid 30s over the northwest mountains, to the low 40s in the Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence of fair and seasonable weather Thursday night into Friday, as all guidance continues to indicate weak ridging aloft in advance of next system. Expect a somewhat milder day Friday, as surface high passes off the coast and return southwest flow ensues. Relatively good agreement among med range guidance into Sat/Sun, with a cold front passage likely midday Saturday after a mild Fri night. Scattered rain showers will likely accompany the front on Sat, followed by a period of lake effect snow showers Sat night into Sunday, as another blast of seasonably chilly air charges across the relatively mild waters of the Grt Lks. ECENS and GEFS both support below normal temperatures Sunday, as deep upper level trough swings over the northeast states. All signs are pointing toward fair and milder weather early next week, as upper ridging is progged along the eastern seaboard in all med range guidance. The guidance diverges by midweek with GFS bringing a cold front and deeper trough through, while the EC splits the energy off into a closed low that remains back over the central U.S. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Some lower clouds will be across the mountains at times into Thursday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail into Friday, as high pressure builds into the area. Brisk winds will prevail this evening. 00Z TAFS sent. Overall pattern favors no big weather systems into the upcoming weekend and into early next week, but frontal passages with limited moisture every few days. Outlook... Fri...No sig wx expected. Sat...Chance of rain/snow showers. Sun...Chance of snow showers across the NW in the morning. Otherwise no sig wx expected. Mon...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/RXR AVIATION...Martin

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