Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCTP 241720
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
120 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will
move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and
more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible
each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first
part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive
for Memorial Day.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mostly sunny skies and warm today. Most locations will range
through the 70s with much of eastern and southeastern areas toping
the 80 degree mark lat this afternoon.
No models show any rain today. The 11Z HRRR showed an isolated
shower or two in extreme southeastern areas but not worth
mentioning and low probability event. But cannot completely rule
out a stray shower over Schuylkill or Lancaster County.
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Should be a beautiful evening. Mostly clear good time to spin
around outside. There could be some patch fog in some
valleys...better chance in eastern/southeastern areas.
Still quite comfortable as humidity will still be on the low side.
Enjoy that while it lasts.
Wednesday will be a pleasant and dry summer day. The first of
many to come over the next 3-7 days. Most areas will
top 80F in the afternoon. It will also be the last of
the relatively dry days as moisture keeps coming in and overnight
Wednesday into Thursday will be a bit more stickier as the
humidity begins to rise.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.
By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.
The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Updated for 18Z package...Second verse same as the first....Mostly
clear skies with west northwest winds. Some gusty winds in spots
this afternoon. Winds are gusty in the west and picking up in the
southeast. Winds should diminish early this evening.
Should be VFR all around. There is a slight chance of some very
isolated showers in extreme eastern portions of the region this
afternoon. Most, if not all the showers should stay well to our
Overnight VFR will prevail with some patch MVFR in some areas of
fog in the valleys of the southeast.
We are looking at a long stretch of relatively warm dry weather.
Wed...No sig wx expected.
Thu-Fri...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.
Sat...perhaps some overnight patchy fog or haze