Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170750 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 350 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will drop south to the MD border by mid-morning. Much colder temperatures than recent days will persist into the midweek period accompanied by a several bouts of snow showers over the Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands. Temperatures will moderate to near normal by next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The front is just about half-way thru the state, knocking on the doorstep of the office at 03Z. It is passing right now (03Z) as we can hear the wind picking up and the flag rippling out the window. Wind is gusting pretty regularly into the 30-35KT range as the front passes, and even close to 30KT before it arrives. The good moisture influx will be lost very soon. Many places to the SE of State College may not get wet, or just have some sprinkles. Snow is falling at BFD and other parts of the nrn mtns, but is not sticking to the roads with road sfc temps 39-40F along Rte 6. The air temp has even recovered a deg or two as the snow became lighter. However, the falling snow is visible on webcams. Do not expect anything more than a slushy coating on the grass/colder sfcs by sunrise. Temps should rise a little, but will be battling the strong CAA.The CAA will drop the 8H temps into negative territory for all the CWA by the end of the day. 8H temp at BFD may be -7C by sunset. We`ve got more than 12hrs of sunlight already (thanks to the earth`s curvature: SR at BFD is 722 AM EDT, and SS is 724 PM EDT. So, it is going to make it more difficult to keep temps from rising during the day moving forward. Maxes will be around 40 N and M-U50s in the white rose and red rose cities. Multiple shots of PVA will be conducive to convection and additional SHSN/RA across the higher elevs of the N and SHRA in the valleys thru the rest of the day. Will introduce some likely PoPs for a time along and N of I-80 and W of IPT in the aftn.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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After the wave that make a few SHRA/SN in the aftn, the flow will generate lake effect SHSN for the next 36+ hrs. The wrly flow will also make some upslope snow in the Laurels, but not much, with the bulk of the moisture along and N of Rte 6. Some meager accums are expected for Warren/McKean Cos. Through the long haul of 48hrs of snow, those NWrn locations may get 4-6" of snow. At this point, it`s just too slow of an accumulation to fret over an advy. The ground temps and daytime temps will be such that the accums will also be more trouble overnights than during the daylight. A positively-tilted longwave trough will swing overhead on Monday, and yield some instability. But, moisture will be lacking and little sfc frontogenesis/organization is seen on Monday. Better instability looks like it will occur on Tuesday as a Clipper low moves across the CWA. If the sfc low goes across NY or our nrn tier, that could set up a nice cold-frontal line. There could still be a squall on Monday, mainly NW, but SHSQ parameter is poor/low. The wind will be gusting close to 20KT anyway. Mins tonight will be AOB freezing across almost all the CWA. That hasn`t happened for a while (beginning of the month). Maxes Monday should hold in the L30s on the higher elevs, and only get into the M40s in the far SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -Winter feel through the first full day of Spring -Risk of locally heavy snow showers and squalls Sun night-Tue -Longest stretch of below average temps since mid-January Despite plenty of signs of early Spring thanks to one of the warmest winter seasons and first 15 days of March on record, the first official week of Spring 2024 will begin on the cold side with frequent snow showers downwind of Lake Erie and over the Allegheny Plateau. There will also be the potential for localized snow squalls through midweek along with late season lake enhanced and orographic snow accumulation in the favored snowbelts and higher terrain. Several reinforcing shots of cold air will maintain one of the longest stretches (3-5 days) of below climo temperatures since mid-January. That speaks to how mild it has been over the last few months. Each cold shot will bring a renewed/enhanced shot of heavier snow showers. Hires guidance currently shows the most widespread potential for convective snow showers Sun night - Mon morning, again Mon night-Tuesday. Latest guidance suggests one last cold shot Thursday, potentially setting the stage for synoptic wintry mix Thursday night into Fri morning ahead of the next weather maker. Still several days out, so there is high uncertainty with the potential system at the end of the week, and whether warmer air will make a return for next weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Rain showers have developed over NW PA and are currently progressing SE. Temperatures have dropped faster than expected in the far NW and a transition to snow shower has already occurred for some. A several hour period of LLWS is expected overnight due to a 35-45 kt southwesterly jet passing overhead a couple thousand feet off the sfc, and this will also result in some gusty winds on the back side of the sfc cold front. The rain shower activity should dissipate over Central PA as it progresses southeastward overnight, and may not even reach the Lower Susq Valley. Low-end IFR to MVFR cigs is expected for the western mountains tonight and the early morning hours. Borderline VFR/MVFR cigs could spill into the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT). The Lower Susq Valley (MDT, LNS) should remain VFR through the TAF period. On Sunday, the front will pull away from the area with chillier air arriving on an increasingly blustery northwesterly wind. Lingering MVFR cigs and perhaps a few -SHRASN are expected across the western highlands, with predominantly VFR conds expected elsewhere. Gusty winds will likely end by 06Z Monday. Outlook... Sun night-Thurs...Periodic snow showers and reductions, primarily across N/W PA. This will be enhanced by reinforcing shots of chilly air and gusty W/NW winds. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19 at 11:06 PM EDT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Evanego/Bowen CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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