Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 142217 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 517 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak wave of low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania this evening. High pressure will build east into the region for Sunday, followed by milder conditions that will work back into the area for the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Patchy very light precip across central and southern Pa early this evening in region of WAA ahead of approaching shortwave. HRRR and radar trends support the idea of the steadiest precip this evening falling across the southern tier of the state, where model soundings indicate freezing rain with perhaps some plain rain in the valleys. Further north, any lingering precip will likely be in the form of either patchy -fzdz or -sn across the central third of the state, but probably no measurable ice accretion in most places, so no northward expansion of the advisory planned. Guidance is in good agreement with a fairly rapid drying out between 02Z-05Z, as high pressure bulges east through the lower lakes/Ohio Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... High pressure will build into the area from the Great Lakes on Sunday, supplying us with fair, chilly weather and relatively light nwrly wind. High temps will rebound by some 5-8 deg with respect to today`s highs. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The stubborn trough/upper low over the west coast will weaken and lift across the southern plains into the great lakes region as a pattern change begins. Ridge over the area tries to hold firm as a warm front lifts through Ohio River Valley early in the upcoming week. This frontal boundary will be preceded and accompanied by a light, wintry mix of precip during the morning hours Monday. A good portion of next week is shaping up to be mild and showery, as bulk of med range guidance shows a ridge slowly retreating off the East Coast as remnants of that west coast low get picked up by the northern stream and track across PA midweek. For Tue into Tue night, deep southerly flow ahead of that trough will bring a plume of anomalous PWATS over the region which supports the idea of showery (rain) and mild weather. As has been the case frequently lately, the GFS brings the trough through faster than the ECMWF. Winds turn westerly behind the system as flow turns more zonal, but with no cold air in sight, temps will remain mild and above freezing. Ridge re-establishes itself over the eastern U.S. for late week, as mild SW flow persists over the midwest. Guidance suggests energy will dive south along the west coast eventually helping to strengthen the building upper ridge over the east. We`ll be on the eastern side of this, so subtle shortwaves sliding into the Midwest will bring varying amounts of cloudiness to the west (less in the east) with low end chances for light showers. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Some fog and fzdz across the central areas now, 21Z TAFS adjusted and sent. Earlier discussion below. Spotty disorganized precipitation is streaking across the region. Over the southern tier lower clouds have finally brought IFR conditions along with intermittent light freezing rain or sleet. Over the central part of the flying area, periods of snow are bringing MVFR/OCNL IFR as visibilities vary between about 1 and 3 miles. The intermittent precip will continue to bring varying conditions into the evening. BFD should remain above it all and stay VFR. Low ceilings and visibilities could persist through midnight, especially at JST as precipitation tapers off and flow remains light. However expect a return to VFR Sunday as high pressure slides east from the OH Valley. Outlook... Mon...VFR/No sig wx. Tue...Sub-VFR likely with freezing rain to rain. Wed...Sub-VFR possible with chc of rain/snow showers. Thu...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for PAZ024>026-033>036-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte/Martin

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