-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 080930
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
430 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND CROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A LATE WINTER STORM
FOR THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH A
RETREATING UPPER RIDGE...SO IT WILL NOT BE A GREAT PRECIP
MAKER...WITH JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
EXPECTED.

HIGHS TODAY FROM NEAR 40 IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE
SOUTH...WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY MARCH.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS DWINDLING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE
TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FROM
CENTRAL AREAS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR BUT COOLER AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVER AND OFF TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SOME 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...SOMETHING THAT HAS BECOME PRETTY NORMAL THIS LONG CHILLY
WINTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR MID WEEK. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SPIT RATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH A LOW CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER TEXAS TO NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO BY EARLY MONDAY. AT THAT TIME WE ARE PROGGED TO STILL
BE UNDER FAST AND MAINLY FAIR NW FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
DEEP EASTERN CANADA LOW.

BY MIDWEEK DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH THE
EC DEVELOPING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WHICH RESULTS IN A
MORE IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WV AND VA ON A TRACK
TO THE NJ COAST. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FLATTER AND FURTHER
SOUTH...WHILE THE 00Z GEFS HAS A STRONGER LOW THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE
THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

IF THE ECMWF/GEFS SOLUTIONS END UP VERIFYING...A WIDESPREAD
WINTRY MIX LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OUTCOME AS INITIALLY MARGINALLY
COLD AIR CHILLS AND COLDER AIR GETS DRAGGED DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
IF THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION IS THE ONE THAT WORKS OUT...WE WILL
BE COOLER...BUT WITH LITTLE PRECIP OF CONSEQUENCE. STILL FAR TOO
EARLY TO SAY.

THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM STILL FAVORS A RIDGE
ALOFT OVER WESTERN NOAM...AND A TROUGH IN OUR PART OF THE WORLD.
SO IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR AN IMMINENT OR EXTENDED WARM UP...IT JUST
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW CLDS TO THE EAST NOW MOVING AWAY FROM CENTRAL PA.

LOWER CLDS TO THE WEST AND NORTH ARE NOW LIKELY TO BE SLOWER
COMING INTO CENTRAL PA.

THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE 09Z TAF PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISUSSION BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN A STORM OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLDS
JUST EAST OF LNS...AND CLDS MOVING INTO THE BFD LATE. ALSO
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG...GROUND FOG...AS TEMPS DROP
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH A RATHER STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE.

THUS EXPECT SOME FOG...DESPITE ALL MOS GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY.
00Z NAM SFC RH FIELDS INCREASE TO NR 100 PCT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO
FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT OVR PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH MENTION OF VCFG. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SIG VIS
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS LOW...IN PART DUE TO CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH INDICATES A LESS THAN 10 PCT CHC OF FOG
TONIGHT BASED ON 03Z SFC OBS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING INCREASING
MID LVL CLOUDINESS AND A SWRLY BREEZE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
PA...WHICH COULD CAUSE ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE UP THERE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY WILL BE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CIGS /AND POSSIBILITY OF IFR/ AT KBFD AND
KJST. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A PLUME OF HIGHER LOW LVL
MOISTURE ASSOC WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN PA. REDUCED CIGS ARE LIKELY PERSIST INTO SAT
EVENING...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW RESULTS IN HIGHER CLOUD BASES
IN THE VALLEYS TO THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN/SNOW/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN