Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 010644 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 144 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER WESTERN PA AT THIS HOUR...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT SNOW IS BREAKING OUT OVER CENTRAL OHIO HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SEWD OFF THE ATLC COAST. HRW-ARW AND HRR SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z ACROSS MY FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. NO OTHER EVENTFUL WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUD SHIELD MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FIRST...FOLLOWED BY THICKER WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES RIGHT UP THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING IT SHOULD BE OVER KPIT...AND ROLL OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS A MUCH MILDER SOLUTION ON THE WHOLE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIMPLE TEMPORARY MODEL WAGGLE BUT RATHER A SUBSTANTIAL/DECISIVE SHIFT. 8H TEMPS GO WELL ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WARM LAYER PRETTY FAR INTO THE REST OF THE AREA MON MORNING AS WELL. THUS...THERE WILL BE A TURN TO RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WITH A TRANSITION IN P-TYPE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. SLEET LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER...WITH A PRETTY GOOD WARM LAYER. FARTHER NORTH/WARMER SOLUTION WILL CUT DOWN THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT IN THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH ADVY OR PERHAPS LESS SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SRN TIER. BUT...THE CHANCE FOR ICING IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST AN ADVY FOR THEM. WILL HOLD ON WITH 6-8INCHES IN THE CENTRAL STRIPE DUE TO THE GOOD QPF IN THE PROGS DURING THE COLD TIME BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH...BUT GOOD P-GRAD WINDS WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE RATHER WET SNOW AND THE GLAZE OF ICE AFTER WILL PROBABLY CUT DOWN ON BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAIN IMPACTS FROM WINTER STORM WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM REGION BY MON NIGHT...BUT ARCTIC AIR PUSHING IN WILL BRING A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH AND BELOW ZERO NORTH. THOUGH STRONGER WINDS IN THE EVENING WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL REMAIN TO DROP WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO FOR ALL...WITH NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS LIKELY NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY /-15F/ MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THIS COULD ADD TO STORM-RELATED IMPACTS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED THAT MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMS TO THE NW HALF /BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEEPENS MORE RAPIDLY OVER NEW ENGLAND/...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF MORE ARCTIC AIR AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THU INTO FRI - INCLUDING A RETURN OF BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ON SAT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXTENSIVE STRATOCU CLOUD DECK BORDERING ON THE LOWER END OF VFR WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL RACE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUTPACE THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. HRRR...AND HI RES WRF ARW MODELS SHOW AN INITIAL EASTWARD EXTENDING ARM OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY MDT WARM ADVECTION SNOWS SPREADING EAST TO THE I-99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KAOO AND KIPT AROUND 15-16Z...WHILE PARTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AND WRN POCONOS STAYS DRY UNTIL PERHAPS AS LATE AS 17-18Z. THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS /AND GRADUALLY DETERIORATING VSBYS TO IFR/ HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS BASED ON THE FACTORS/MODELS NOTED ABOVE. THE LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12-17Z AS DEEPENING MOISTURE /AND THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW/ STREAKS EASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOWLY SWD SAGGING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON AS HEAVIER SNOW IMPACTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH A WINTRY MIX WORKING INTO THE KMDT- KLNS AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICING. LLWS POSS SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE S/SE AS LOW LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH. OUTLOOK... SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LLWS POSS SUN NIGHT SE. MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. LLWS POSS MON AFT/NIGHT. TUE...NO SIG WX. WED...MVFR IN SHSN NW...VFR SE. THU...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ033>036-064>066. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024>028-056-057-059-063.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LAMBERT

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