Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 162333 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 733 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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After a very mild first half of March (warmest on record in some spots), temperatures will drop below normal for the start of the upcoming week as a cold front pushes southeast across the state late tonight and early Sunday. The cold air will persist into the midweek period accompanied by a several bouts of snow showers over the Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands. Temperatures will moderate to near normal by next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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125 kt jet max and associated positive DPVA will accompany the passage of a cold front into the CWA tonight, supporting a line of rain showers. The rain is progged to enter Warren Co between 9 and 10 PM, then press SE towards the I-80 corridor after midnight. Much of the rain will break up across the Central and SE zones as the UVVEL associated with the aforementioned favorable exit region of the jet max races off to the east, leaving the region in broad deep layer subsidence beneath the left entrance region of the same jet core. Rainfall will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch across the NW Mtns, to just a few hundredths over the Central Ridge and Valley Region and little or nothing across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Not much QPF being produced by most models after 12Z Sunday as a well-defined mid and upper level dry slot expands across the CWA, with the straight W-E llvl winds keeping most/all lake effect to our N. Highest PoPs (40%) will be confined to isolated rain/snow showers in NW zones. Subsidence also aids in drying things out, but clouds won`t go away Sun aftn/night. A gradual decrease in llvl temps will put the 8H temps down to -2C SE to -8C NW by late in the day Sunday. DOD/24 hour max temp drop will range from about 5 deg F across the Lower Susq Valley to nearly 15F cooler across the NW Mtns.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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-Winter feel through the first full day of Spring -Risk of locally heavy snow showers and squalls Sun night-Tue -Longest stretch of below average temps since mid-January Despite plenty of signs of early Spring thanks to one of the warmest winter seasons and first 15 days of March on record, the first official week of Spring 2024 will begin on the cold side with frequent snow showers downwind of Lake Erie and over the Allegheny Plateau. There will also be the potential for localized snow squalls through midweek along with late season lake enhanced and orographic snow accumulation in the favored snowbelts and higher terrain. Several reinforcing shots of cold air will maintain one of the longest stretches (3-5 days) of below climo temperatures since mid-January. That speaks to how mild it has been over the last few months. Ensemble data shows some moderation by late week with max precip probs shaded toward southeast PA by the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The gusty southwesterly wind of earlier has become less gusty as the evening has progressed. Mid-level clouds are overspreading NW PA at 00z, and will continue to progress southeastward into the overnight hours as a cold front approaches. Rain showers are expected to develop across NW PA after sunset and spread southeastward overnight as well. Additionally, a several hour period of LLWS is expected overnight due to a 35-45 kt southwesterly jet passing overhead a couple thousand feet off the sfc. The rain shower activity will tend to dissipate as it progresses southeastward across the remainder of Central PA overnight, and may not even reach the Lower Susq Valley. Low- end MVFR cigs will develop over the western highlands (BFD, JST) overnight, and borderline VFR/MVFR cigs should spill into the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT). The Lower Susq Valley (MDT, LNS) should remain VFR through the TAF period. On Sunday, the front will pull away from the area with chillier air arriving on an increasingly blustery northwesterly wind. Lingering MVFR cigs and perhaps a few -SHRASN are expected across the western highlands, with predominantly VFR conds expected elsewhere. Outlook... Sun night-Thurs...Periodic snow showers and reductions, primarily across N/W PA. This will be enhanced by reinforcing shots of chilly air and gusty W/NW winds. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19 at 11:06 PM EDT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Colbert NEAR TERM...Lambert/Colbert SHORT TERM...Lambert/Colbert LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Evanego CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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