Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 031855 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 255 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SHOWERS TRIED TO POP UP IN THE SC MTNS RECENTLY BUT HAVE DIED. THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF SPEED SHEAR AND MILD TEMPS ALOFT. BUT I AM GOING TO BLAME THE SHORT LIFE SPAN ON DRYING OCCURRING AS THE CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE REGION. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO MAKE THE CU GROW - BUT THIN CAPE NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM GROWING. HOWEVER...MESO MDLS DO CONTINUE TO PLACE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SC MTNS AND EVEN INTO THE SUSQ VLY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS A SMALL BIT BUT LEFT THEM IN PLACE AND IN CURRENT TIME SPAN. ONE LARGER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOME QPF TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH THEMSELVES OVER MOST/ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DZ IS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN KINDA MILD FOR EARLY MAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BY FRIDAY THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE OF A DEFORMATION PCPN LOOK WRAPPING NWWD INTO ERN PA AROUND CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC GETS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS. THE 03/00Z ECMWF MOS TEMPS ARE TRENDING COOLER/BELOW NORMAL VS. GFS FOR MOTHERS DAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOG LIFTED AND CIGS ALSO LIFTING AT MOST TERMINALS. BREAKS CLOSE TO JST/AOO SHOULD HELP THEM MIX BETTER/HIGHER SHORTLY. PREV... LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF SITES AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CIGS AND VSBY TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH IFR AND MVFR COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS SE PA ARND NOON TUESDAY...AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...LACK OF MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS LINGERING INTO THE AFTN. UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE LAURELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO VFR CONDS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THRU EVENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. OUTLOOK... WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO

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