Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 141949 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 349 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak disturbances aloft will pass through the region over the next day or so. Fair and less humid weather will return for midweek before a new frontal system approaches the area Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A wedge of clouds with a small area of light showers is moving through the southern portions of my CWA at mid day. The HRRR suggests the showers will taper off and move east of the area by early evening. I generally downplayed POPs over much of central and northern Pa with most of the remaining guidance showing little more than isolated showers possible. Southerly flow will continue into push increasing moisture into the region overnight. This should result in low clouds and areas of fog redeveloping later this evening and after midnight. The chances for rain will be low but low chance POPs are still warranted given slowly falling heights and increasing cyclonic flow aloft. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s over the north to mid 60s south, which will average about 3-6 deg above normal. With dewpoints beginning to creep up, it will begin to feel muggy over much of the central and eastern portion of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A surface and upper trough will slide across upstate New York during the day Tuesday. The models develop some weak instability so the chance of a shower or thunderstorm cannot be dismissed, but overall drier air will begin to work into the state so conditions will be improving the deeper into the day we get. Highs will be several deg warmer than today, averaging in the 80s in most areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday continues to look dry for now. However, the remnants of a weak cold front from the north drops southward toward the area. 00Z EC showed a low with strong warm advection for Thursday. The EC was deeper than faster with the low on Thu. Some variation with guidance with the end of the week. For now, did edge the POPS up some for Sunday and Sunday Night, to line up with others, the blend, and timing of the front better. Did not want to go too high, as events lately are largely clusters of convection. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR with areas of MVFR ceilings over western higher elevations will continue into tonight. Southerly flow will help push increasing moisture into the region, with low clouds and fog expected to redevelop later this evening and especially after midnight, into the morning hours of Tuesday. The low clouds and fog will gradually lift Tuesday morning with most areas improving to VFR by mid day. A stray shower or thunderstorms with brief local restrictions will be possible. .OUTLOOK... Wed...VFR. No sig wx. Thu-Fri...VFR. Sct Tstm impacts likely. Sat...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte

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