Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 070538 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1238 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA. STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...AS A NARROW SFC RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN ARE SANDWICHING THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST. NUDGED DOWNWARD A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. SOME AREAS COULD SEE UPPER TEENS OR EVEN A TAD LOWER IF CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW. THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06Z TAFS SENT. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME HZ/FOG POSSIBLE AT LNS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS TODAY. NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEB. A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY. OUTLOOK... MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS. TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS. WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST. SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300. THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...EVANEGO AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN

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