Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 011824 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 224 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/... CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING. SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUTLOOK... THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR. && .CLIMATE... PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO CLIMATE...

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