Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCTP 300832
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
432 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
An upper level trough will push across the region tonight and
Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build east into
Pennsylvania for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely
push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Batch of light to moderate rain lifting across eastern Pa at 06z assoc
with weak shortwave. Radar trends and latest RAP suggest rain ovr
our eastern counties will taper off by dawn, as shortwave slides
past. Further to the west, a weak cold front is pushing into nw
Pa. No precip noted with this feature at 06z, but can`t rule out
an isold shower across the nw counties toward dawn.
Clearing skies, light wind and wet ground from yesterday`s
rainfall will yield patchy fog across the Allegheny Plateau early
this morning. Vis at KFIG already down to 1/4sm at 06z.
Temps on track to bottom out from the u50s across the Alleghenies,
to the m60s across the eastern counties.
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
After morning activity slides east of the Susq River Valley...
most of Memorial Day is now appearing dry...although isold to sct
coverage shra/tsra still expected during the aftn/early evening with
passage of weak cold front. Guidance continues to indicate a fair
amount of mid/high cloudiness streaming north from remnants of td
bonnie over eastern PA...while increasing amounts of sun will be
found rather over the rest of central Pa. Highs should range from
the upper 70s to the mid 80s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Looking at a nice break from the showers and storms from
later Monday into Wed. Temperatures still a little above
Expect some showers and storms later Thursday into Friday
with the next cold front. Some variation between the GFS and
EC at times on the large scale flow...so by the time I got
to Sunday...I adjusted the superblend pops a little...too
much detail for that far out. Regardless of detail...trend
is to a cooler and wetter pattern again. Other issue is hints
that some remains of Bonnie stay behind under the upper level
ridge until the next cold front moves in by Friday.
Main change to the package was some minor adjustments.
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level trough will push across the region overnight and
Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build in for midweek.
The two biggest aviation concerns through daybreak will be 1)
weak precipitation continuing over the southeast which will lead
to cig restrictions at LNS/MDT, and 2) clearing over the western
higher terrain that will bring sct vsby restrictions that should
bring BFD/JST down to MVFR with localized IFR vsbys elsewhere.
Light rain over the SE will come to an end between 09z-12Z...with
lower cigs persisting into mid morning. Fog that develops
elsewhere will also mix out by 13-14z. Overall, a VFR Memorial Day
is in store for central PA, with just a chance for showers and
isolated TSRA bringing potential for brief local reductions,
mainly confined to se half of cwa. This will be followed by high
pressure and more settled weather building into the region through
midweek /with early morning patchy fog/.
Tue-Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.
Thu...Chance of showers/tstms west. A.M. cig reductions poss
Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with