Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270936 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 436 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
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WWX ADVY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 7AM...AND WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON TIME. COASTAL LOW JUST ABOUT TO OUR LATITUDE...AND WINDS ARE ALREADY BRINGING DRIER AIR IN UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING THE INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ORGANIZATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS BECOMING POOR AT THIS HOUR AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE. HELD LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND SC MTS. RADAR RETURNS SLIDING IN FROM THE COAST ARE PRODUCING VERY LIGHT SNOW IN FAR ERN PA. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE JUST ABOUT REACHED THE ERN EXTENT OF THEIR INFLUENCE. WILL HOLD HIGH CHC POPS IN THE FAR ERN CWA...BUT EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS THERE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE STORM DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST. COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. INTERESTING FEATURE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE A DEVELOPING SNOW BAND STRETCHING N-S LOCATED FROM RENOVO TO JUST EAST OF STATE COLLEGE THROUGH ADAMS COUNTY. RADAR AROUND 06Z SHOWED A CONVERGENCE OF BOUNDARIES WHICH IS LEADING TO THE ENHANCED INTENSITY OF THIS BAND /THAT THE VERY SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON/. AS FAR AS TERMINALS...LOOKS LIKE ONLY KUNV WILL BE IMPACTED WITH IFR VSBYS...BUT SIMILAR IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LINE AS IT PEAKS AND THEN DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE IN THE EAST SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NE BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY TUE AS N/NW FLOW INCREASES. OUTLOOK... WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED. THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW. SAT...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005- 006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-045-046-049-050-056- 063>065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...RXR

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