Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281611 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1211 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE FOG/STRATUS IS GONE. SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE HAS POPPED THE CU OVER THE MOST-MOIST LOCATIONS...OFF THE ELEVATIONS FIRST. SOME CU OUT THE WINDOW WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE CU FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY MDT CU BUT SOME TCU. THESE WILL LIKELY GET CHOKED OFF BEFORE POKING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAP TO THE NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH MORE OF MOISTURE AND LESS OF A CAP THAT VERY ISOLD CU MAY GROW TALL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SHOWER. MAXES ON TRACK AFTER THE INITIALLY COOL START UNDER THE STRATUS C/S BUT A RATHER WARM BUT COMFORTABLE DAY ON-GOING IN THE NORTH. ALL CU SHOULD BE DYING AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. SKY COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY GET LOW ENOUGH TODAY TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE WE SAW IN THE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE- SHALLOW MIXING THERE SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... JUST SOME HAZE IN THE SRN TERMINALS WHERE THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE VFR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THERE COULD AGAIN BE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WED AM...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS TUES AM. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO MVFR...BUT MOST SHOULD STAY ABOVE IFR. THE HIGHER-DEWPOINT LOCATIONS LIKE MDT/LNS/AOO COULD BE IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE. BFD IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO GO IFR...BUT MAY HAVE THE FOG SLIDE OFF INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR/SUNNY FOR WED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS BEFORE OF ALONG THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS. OUTLOOK... WED...IFR IN AM FOG THEN MAINLY VFR. THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO

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