Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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857 FXUS61 KCTP 271814 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 214 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large ridge of high pressure will reside over Pennsylvania through midday Sunday bringing very warm and mainly dry weather. A weak cold front will push southeast across the state Sunday night into Monday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. Another period of warmer than normal and mainly dry days will follow for Monday...Tuesday...and the first part of Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Partly cloudy skies through Central PA this afternoon as some cirrus moves over the ridge and a few stratocu develop in the lower levels. Strong ridge over the Mid Atlantic with 594 heights through Central PA will continue into Sunday. Skies should be mainly clear tonight. Dew points in the northern mountains still in the upper 50s to lower 60s so another comfortable night in the north. Temps and dew points will converge around the mid 60s by morning in the lower Susq Valley. Some low clouds or light fog may possibly form. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... A weak cold front will bring the chance for showers or thunderstorms later Sunday afternoon/evening - mainly over northern and western sections of the state. Weighted our previous fcst POPs to the latest run of the Superblend. Little or no chc for precip across the far SE zones remains. SPC has placed the NW third of our CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe Sunday afternoon and evening...which looks pretty good based on moderate, westerly deep-layer shear and a SW-NE ribbon of rather impressive MU cape of 2500-3500 j/kg extending from near KELZ and KBFD...to KBTP. Gusty (and highly localized damaging) westerly winds will accompany the storms in the 18Z Sunday - 01Z Monday period in the MRGL Risk area. Above normal temps will continue on Sunday with similar maxes (or perhaps just a few deg f lower than Sat`s across the Susq Valley). Highs expected to range from the mid 80s (mtns) to near 90F in the Lower Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to an upper-level trough over the northeast by next Thursday and Friday. As a result, above-normal temperatures early in the week will transition to near...then likely a few to several deg below normal by late next week. The weakening cold front (noted in the Short Term period above) will push slowly SE through the Commonwealth Sunday night into Monday morning accompanied by isolated to scattered showers. The frontal boundary is expected to wash out near or just south of the Mason/Dixon line during the day Monday. Abundant low-level moisture...mesoscale convergence and some orographic lift/heating via the East to NE llvl flow regime across the mtns of SW PA will focus the best chc for showers and scattered thunderstorms there Monday afternoon. Monday night through Wed morning looks to be dry...with generally light wind and just some patchy early morning fog throughout the valleys of central and northern PA. A second...and likely stronger cold front should push SE across the area Wednesday afternoon or early Thursday, with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next week. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s Thursday through Saturday (over central and SE PA)...but may hold in the mid to upper 60s acrs the NW mtns Thursday and Friday...as a deep upper trough amplifies from central Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Good VFR will continue through the remainder of the day. Overnight, patchy fog will develop a few hours before sunrise. However, using persistence, kept all sites VFR with only a minor reduction in visibility. Good VFR is expected Sunday. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across the northwest quadrant of Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon along/ahead of a cold front advancing eastward across the Lower Great Lakes into the Upper OH Valley. A few storms may produce strong to marginally severe sfc wind gusts. Outlook... Mon-Tue...Predominately VFR with isolated P.M. TSRA possible. Wed...Scattered TSRA probable with cold front passage. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Watson/Lambert NEAR TERM...Watson SHORT TERM...Watson/Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert AVIATION...Tyburski

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