Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230213 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1013 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ON SCHEDULE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD BREAKING UP NICELY NOW SO THE FORECAST OF CLEARING SKIES LOOKS ON TRACK AS WELL. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH FROSTY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOMERSET COUNTY...WHERE A FROST ADVISORY WAS POSTED FROM 07-13Z TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR RURAL VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO AROUND 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...WITH LOWER 40S IN THE LARGER SERN PENN METRO AREAS SUCH AS YORK...HARRISBURG...AND LANCASTER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO NE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOME CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME LOCALLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AND PATCHY FROST IN A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WIND FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TUESDAY WILL BE A MUCH MILDER DAY WITH TEMPS RISING ABOUT 25F DURING THE DAY...AND REACHING ABOUT 10F MILDER THAN MONDAY/S HIGHS IN THE NW - BUT STAYING SIMILAR TO MONDAY IN THE LOWER SUSQ. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL MSLP ANOMALIES OVER THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH THEY DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ALL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE REGION DRY DUE TO A BLOCKING 500 HPA ANTICYCLONE AND DRY MIDLEVELS. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE EXTENT OF DIURNAL VALLEY FOG. EXPECT PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS WITH DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE. THE GFS AND EC AND CANADIAN MODELS DIVERGE BUT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD/T BE UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 23/00Z...LATEST IR STLT DATA IS SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER CLEARING TREND THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE HAVE PROLONGED MVFR CIGS AT BFD/JST AND CUT BACK ON REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS CONDITIONAL AND PREDICATED ON SKC WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE IN JEOPARDY ESP OVER THE NW 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE...AS THE LLVL MSTR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCD WITH HP BUILDING EWD FROM THE OH VLY. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS LOW(ER) BUT KEPT VCFG MENTION FOR CONTINUITY. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO ABUNDANT VFR FLYING BY 15Z TUE WITH FAIR WX CU LKLY IN THE AFTN. HP GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE A SETBACK MAY OCCUR LATER WED INTO THURS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF STG HP IN THE GULF OF MAINE. OUTLOOK... WED...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. THU...LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF -RA/DZ PSBL. FRI-SAT...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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