Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 272350 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 750 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... LONG LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. TIMING USING YE OLDE EXTRAPOLATION TOOL WAS GREAT. OUTFLOW IS WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER OHIO BUT SOME DECENT RAIN AND SOME THUNDER NOW INTO NWRN WARREN CO AND MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ESE. WILL FOLLOW NAM AND HRRR AND NOT BRING POPS TOO FAR INTO THE CWA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME MAY LINGER INTO THE WEE HOURS. NO THREAT FOR SEVERE OR FLOODING WITHOUT GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW AND LITTLE INSTABILITY. TEMPS FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AN POSSIBLE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN PA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR AND LESS HUMID CONDS...AS NW FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT ADVECTS A LOWER PWAT AIR MASS INTO PA. UNDER MSUNNY SKIES...ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS FROM THE U70S NW MTNS...TO THE M/U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY THU/THU NIGHT...MED RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS A RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WX FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH 12Z GEFS SHOWING ANOMALOUS 500MB HGTS AND SFC PRES OFF THE E COAST. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW AN INCREASINGLY HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT SCT DIURNALLY- DRIVEN PM CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA COMES LATE SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SOME MDL TIMING ISSUES WITH HOW FAST COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. HOWEVER...FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FROM ALL MDL DATA THAT THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF JUNE /MON AND TUE/ WILL BE COOL AND PERHAPS SHOWERY...WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND POTENTIAL OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. HAVE DECREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND INCREASED THEM DUE TO THE STREAMING OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HUMID CONDS...HAVE LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESP LOWER SUSQ ZONES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS PEAK ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA BETWEEN THROUGH 18Z...AND SLIDE EASTWARD AFTER 16Z. OUTLOOK... WED...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. THU-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD P.M. TSTMS. SAT...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD FROPA. SUN...MVFR CIGS POSS NW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR IN SCT SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/RXR

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