Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020935 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 535 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR ZONE OF HI PWS. THEREFORE WILL CONFINE POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH NRN AREAS STAYING MAINLY DRY AS LOWER PW AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY BUT THE LOW HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI NIGHT. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z. NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA. OUTLOOK... FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE. SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS. SUN-MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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