Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200124 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 824 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA AS OF 01Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT ACCUM OF UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE. WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDNIGHT...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ARND -15C. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY THU WILL BRING MORE COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID LOWER TEMPS SOME...AS THIS AIRMASS NOT REALLY ALL THAT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE HAD. ALSO LAKE SNOW WATCH FROM 20Z THU TO 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES. MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST. MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE. DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION. ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD. COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE NOW. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR. LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO CENTRAL AREAS. OUTLOOK... THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH. SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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