Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170827 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 427 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...SO TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL AOB FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT DURING THE DAY...BUT SOME MARINE MOISTURE COULD STILL START TO SNEAK IN AS THE FLOW AROUND THE BIG NEW ENGLAND HIGH FETCHES THINGS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP SKY COVER SCT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A TOTALLY SUNNY DAY IS LOW WITH THE POSS OF SOME CU. THUS...MO SUNNY SHOULD WORK OUT. MAXES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH BLENDS NICELY TO THE L-M 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MOISTURE COULD BECOME THICKER AND BUILD A CEILING/BROKEN SKY OVER THE SE EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THE FLOW FROM THE SE BACKS AND SLACKENS AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP SHOP OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...THE MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OUT OF THE SE AND POOL UP OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME CLEARING OVER THE AREAS IN THE GROWING SEASON. MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN PLACES NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN THE SE AGAIN. CLOUDS COULD BLOW THIS UP AND KEEP IT SLIGHTLY MILDER. HOWEVER...MESO PATTERN IS CERTAINLY ONE WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BE CUT OFF AND SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TONIGHT...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE FREEZING. THE RIDGE THEN STAYS IN PLACE AND HELPS TO PUSH A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM WILL ALSO BE DEFLECTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SLIDES EAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE MIGHTY MISS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOOKING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN IS AVG AT BEST THE GUIDANCE FAVORS A MAINLY DRY FCST SUN- MON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS ASSOCD WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF THE PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN-TIER CONUS ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL BUT RATHER EXPLICIT NORTH-SOUTH SPLIT IN THE 500MB FLOW BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST. THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE LW PATTERN IS FCST TO REAMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/SPRING CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVG 500MB RIDGING SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY DELAY THE HEIGHT RISES IN THE EAST AND SEND A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC AROUND DAY 8. OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NOW APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE FRI NGT SATURDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY TIME-FRAMES. SO MOST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL PA.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVE AS INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH PERSISTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...THOUGH SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 8 KTS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS AT 850 MB WILL BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THU AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS...BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS SE PA EARLY. FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /MAINLY NW HALF/. SUN-MON...NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE...
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TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING RECORD MINS IN IPT AND MDT...BUT MAY STOP SHORT GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS AND THE LITTLE BREATH OF WIND REMAINING. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR APRIL 17TH FROM AROUND THE AREA. AOO... 23/1980 BFD... 16/1963 JST... 21/1966 IPT... 25/1904 MDT... 29/1980 AND 1904
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-063>066. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059- 063>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...CERU/RXR CLIMATE...CTP

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