Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300705 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 205 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER KPIT AT THIS HOUR. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PRECIP SHIELD WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EXTENDING FROM THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WSW TO NORTH CENTRAL. THIS PRECIP WILL CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z...ADDING ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.5" OF ACCUMULATION. SOME ICE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BUT UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE QUICK CHANGE BACK TO -SHSN EVEN WHERE SFC TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL MAINTAIN WINT WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR GENERALLY NUISANCE ICING AT WORST. HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD. HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN EARLY TO MID MORNING OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND 14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE. SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED. HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAIN AREA OF SNOW ASSCD WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PASS LATER TONIGHT...HAS MOVED EAST OF CENTRAL PA. SECONDARY AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW NOW WORKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. OBSERVED CONDS LINE UP LINE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL FLOW...WITH IFR IN THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...MVFR IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND VFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 06Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE 08-11Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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