Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 292343 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 743 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... I GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO FIT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SUGGEST LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER ERN SXNS. DESPITE P-M CLOUDY SKIES...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS APPROACHING...WITHIN ~3 DEG...DAILY CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S...SIMILAR TO MINS FROM THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT. STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT. SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/. THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE... AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF... LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA... ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/. MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BKN/OVC STRATUS LAYER WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AND BECOME SCT/SKC AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE /SUMMER/ SUN. APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE ERN GRT LKS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE ISOL SHRA AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...KEPT RECENT ISSUANCE AS VCSH AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK... WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS. FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI

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