Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280646 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 146 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY... FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING...TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... SKC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME SLOWLY DIMINISHING STRATOCU AND -SHSN PRESENT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. MESO OB SITES SHOW THAT SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS NRN PENN HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BELOW ZERO...WITH ONE LOCATIONS JUST SE OF COUDERSPORT AT -8F...AND A FEW OBSERVING SITES AROUND THE CITY OF BRADFORD AT -3F AND -5F. MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD MODIFICATION FOR HOURLY TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT MINS ACROSS THE NORTH. MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS -9F AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT BREEZE LEAD TO A SPECKLING OF APPARENT TEMPS AS LOW AS -14 TO -16F. SINCE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW APPARENT TEMPS IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE 5-10 KT SUSTAINED WIND /WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND WRN POCONOS/ WILL LEAD TO HIGHER MIN TEMPS - IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN 925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD. FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KJST REMAINS SUB VFR LATE THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN. OUTLOOK... THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW. SAT...VFR. SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...GARTNER

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