Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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921 FXUS61 KCTP 182247 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 547 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An extended period of mild, spring-like weather with above normal temperatures is expected through the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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After record breaking warmth across parts of central Pa, temps beginning to cool early this evening under mostly clear skies. IR loop showing some standing wave clouds along the spine of the Appalachians, but main focus overnight will be on upper low tracking across the southeast states. Showers associated with this feature are approaching southwest Pa at 22Z and near term model guidance suggests a few showers could graze the southern tier counties overnight, perhaps as early as 02Z over Somerset Co. Across the rest of central Pa, expect increasing mid to high level cloudiness (mainly south) overnight. It will remain very mild overnight in the 30s and 40s. Most places will average 20-25 deg above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Upper low and associated threat of showers should have passed east of the region by 12Z Sunday. However, based on upslope flow and nearly saturated soundings below 850mb, can`t rule out a bit of drizzle over Somerset Co to start the day. A weak back door cold front will deliver slightly cooler air, but it will still be much warmer than normal. GEFS mean 850mb temps about 2-4C cooler than today, likely translating to maxes from around 50F over the northern tier, to the mid 60s in the southern valleys. Model soundings suggest Sunday could dawn a bit gloomy over the NW Mtns/Laurels with low level moisture/upslope flow beneath inversion resulting in low clouds. However, SREF probability data strongly suggests these low clouds mix out by midday, resulting in mostly sunny skies across the entire region for the afternoon.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The mild temperatures will continue through the extended forecast as no cold air push is in sight. High temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures mainly above freezing. a rather strong ridge builds in for early next week. Surface ridge axis splitting the region will bring a bit of northerly/ northeast flow to eastern sections, suppressing temps a bit (but still remaining well above average). Weak system slides by to the north Tue night, and brings quick chance for showers. Flow turns SW by Wed as temps rebound. Pattern becomes more amplified late week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase late week, with warm front lifting through Thu into Fri - bringing increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 21Z TAFS sent. Still a light wind at IPT, LLWS inserted into this TAF. Earlier discussion below. Expect widespread VFR into the overnight with a SW wind, gusting to 20-25kt at times over the western 1/2 of the flying area. Mid/high clouds will continue to increase. Guidance/soundings continue to show shallow moist layer with weak upslope flow producing sub-VFR cigs at KBFD/KJST later this evening into Sunday morning. Highest confidence in lowest cigs at KJST and can`t rule out a period of IFR. All terminals should be VFR by mid day Sunday as high pressure starts to nose in from the west. Outlook... Mon...VFR/No sig wx. Tue-Thu...Sub-VFR psbl with chance of rain showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Gartner/RXR AVIATION...La Corte/Martin

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