Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250729 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 329 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Much drier air is settling in and stick around through much of the coming week. Widely scattered showers may pop up each afternoon across the northern part of the state, though. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Isolated showers traversing the central and north central mountains early this morning in response to weak wave and jetlet streaming in fast flow overhead. These should not amount to much overnight. Temperatures have begun to cool more efficiently as winds have slackened off. A patch of lower clouds may develop in the Laurels with an upslope there. Mins will be just under 50F in the N and above 60 in the SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Sunday will be highly similar to Saturday as heating bubbles up the cu. Wind will be similarly west and gust into the teens. However, there is a slightly higher chc for shra than Sat up in the N during the aftn/eve as another short wave rolls toward us across the lakes with good-timing for meeting up with peak heating. Highs will be several degrees cooler throughout... ranging from the upper 60s northwest to around 80F southeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Seasonably strong large scale upper trough will settle over the Eastern U.S. A couple of shortwave impulses reflecting weak surface fronts or troughs will provide a limited/mainly diurnal opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low- topped thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, especially across northern portions of CWA. However, much of the this period will be pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting low humidity and below normal temperatures relative to late June climatology. The trough is fcst to lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by the middle of the week, followed by a resurgence of the Southeast U.S. upper ridge. Models and ensembles show the ridge breaking down in the west as a trough shifts east across the Rockies into the Plains. Southerly flow increasing ahead of its attendant frontal system should result in an upward/warmer trend in temperatures accompanied by low level moisture/humidity midweek. Expect max/min temps to rise above normal levels with noticeably increasing humidity by next Friday/Saturday along with an increase in convective activity. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions continue across all of Central Pennsylvania early this morning with a light...5kt westerly wind in many locations. Broad large scale lift associated with the right entrance region of a 110 kt upper level swrly jet has been producing some areas of high based strato cu and alto cu clouds within an area of llvl ridging with even a few isolated light showers. As noted earlier, while there might be an isolated restriction to MVFR under the core of a shower, coverage too low to include in TAFs for the overnight period. Latest Hi Res Models continue to hint a brief period of fog and a low stratus deck for a few hours early today /09z- 12z/ over the western and northern mountains. Have therefore included a 3 hour period of restrictions in KBFD and KJST. Elsewhere, those locations which saw the bulk of the rain yesterday, including KAOO, KMDT and KLNS may see some patchy MVFR visibility restrictions, again mainly between 09z and 12z. Have kept mention of fog out of the KIPT and KUNV TAFs with the 06z issuance. Short term models indicate some scattered shower activity may develop by mid Sunday morning across the northwest as the leading edge of cooler low-mid level temps advects in from the NW, so VCSH has been included. Similar to Saturday, westerly winds will pick up during the mid/late morning in all locations as vertical mixing rapidly climbs to 6-7 kft agl, tapping wind of 20-25 kts at that level. .OUTLOOK... Mon...Mainly VFR, but scattered/numerous SHRA/TSRA north. Tue...Mainly VFR, but scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA north. Wed...VFR. Thu...Mainly VFR, but isolated/scattered afternoon SHRA north. && .EQUIPMENT... KCCX radar will be offline for 2 to 4 days starting today, Saturday, June 24th, for technicians to install the first of 4 major service- life extension upgrades. The work on the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Watson/Dangelo NEAR TERM...Watson/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Watson/Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Jung/Lambert EQUIPMENT...

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