Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 022155 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 555 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WETTER AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AREAS OF HIGH BASED CU...WILL LIFT/TRANSITION INTO A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF ALTO CU ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP BLYR FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING AND SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KTS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS MILDER TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD SNEAK INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES TWD 12Z MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE PART OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE MONDAY. THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMING OF THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE PER THE LATEST SREF...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL HAVE FAIRLY STRONG...AND WELL-ALIGNED -06 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM 25-35 KTS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...TO 40-50 KTS INVOF OF THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE UVVEL CLOSE TO THE FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE ONE OR MORE BKN TSRA LINES CONTAINING ENHANCED BOWS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE AS DCAPES SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH AND LCL/S AOA 1KM AGL IN MOST PLACES. TEMPS WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE U70S TO L80S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. READINGS COULD TOUCH 90F IN THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE DOWN FROM THE NW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/LOWER CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRAG THE BEFORE MENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO STALL ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD NOT ONLY ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BUT THE BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AS A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY FORMS THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA. CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE MOVED THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH SO THE QUESTION REMAINS IF IT WILL FORM HERE OR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS THE EVENT MOVES CLOSER. HOWEVER THE LOW SITTING OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP TUMULTUOUS WEATHER IN THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCALIZED FOG/BR VSBY RESTRICTIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AIRSPACE WHERE THE BLYR MAY BECOME DECOUPLED TOWARD DAYBREAK. KEPT LLWS AT BFD 06-12Z MON AS 40-50KT SWLY LLJ PRECEDES COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM LOWER MI. FOR MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AIRSPACE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CFROPA AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN +RA AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA 40KTS. OUTLOOK... TUE...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN AIRSPACE WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE. WED-FRI...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR VIS IN ISOLD-SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/TYBURSKI AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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