Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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261 FXUS61 KCTP 201931 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 231 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An extended period of mild weather with well above normal temperatures is expected through the end of the week. A weak cool front will push through the state late Tuesday and Tuesday night. A stronger cold front is expected for Friday into Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Other than a few thin high clouds floating by, we have another bright-sunny late winter`s day in progress with temperatures more reminiscent of early April. High pressure at the surface building to our north will help cooler air ooze down into the region, so while we will remain much warmer than normal, we will be a tad cooler than the last couple of days. It will remain fair and dry overnight with lows dropping back into the 20s and 30s. But still some 10-15 deg above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
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A weakening front and the associated shearing upper shortwave will bring increasing clouds to the area Tuesday. Should the cloud cover not be as widespread or thick as expected, highs could easily be several deg warmer than current projections. Otherwise it will not be a bad day overall. Showers will be slow to move east, leaving a dry day for the bulk of the region. The exception is the far NW where it could rain toward dusk.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Gradually milder temperatures will return for the extended period as no genuine cold air push is in sight. High temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures mainly above freezing. Upper ridge axis is forecast to be located east of the state Tuesday night. The weak cold frontal boundary will produce a brief period or two of showers for late Tuesday (Northwest) and over the Central and Eastern parts of PA Tuesday night into the mid morning hours of Wednesday. Clouds associated with this weak frontal boundary will help to suppress temps a bit (but they`ll still remain well above average). The flow turns back to the SW by Wednesday causing temps to rebound. The overall, large-scale pattern becomes more amplified late in the week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Thursday and Friday with warm front lifting through, and bringing increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Widespread VFR will continue into Tuesday with surface winds generally 10kt or less, generally out of the NW for the rest of today, becoming light and variable overnight. A weakening cold front could bring rain showers and reduced conditions to NW PA by nightfall Tuesday, otherwise VFR and a light wind will continue. Outlook... Wed...A.M. sub-VFR possible NW 1/3; otherwise VFR/no Sig Wx. Thu...Sub-VFR possible with chance rain showers. Fri...Sub-VFR possible with rain showers likely Friday night. LLWS probable. Sat...strong cold to bring Sub-VFR and possible thunderstorms.
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&& .CLIMATE... Summary of record highs from 2/18 and 2/19... Harrisburg: Record high of 69 degrees on 2/19. Previous record high was 66 degrees set back in 1997. Williamsport: Record high of 69 degrees on 2/19. Previous record high was 60 degrees set back in 1997 Altoona: Record highs of 64 degrees on 2/19 and 66 degrees on 2/18 (tie). Previous record highs were 61 in 1994 (2/19) and 66 in 1981 (2/18). Bradford: Record high of 62 degrees on 2/18. Previous record high was 56 degrees set back in 1994. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte CLIMATE...

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