Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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338 FXUS61 KCTP 231159 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 759 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will pass over Pennsylvania today. A warm front will lift into the region Friday, then oscillate in the vicinity of Pennsylvania through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... After a cold start, temperatures rebound nicely later today as the surface high passes east of Pa and a return southerly flow develops. Highs will still be below average but it should feel noticeably warmer with very light surface winds and plenty of late March sunshine bringing peak temps in the 40s over much of the area. The higher terrain of northeast Pa, where snow still covers the ground, will likely not make it out of the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley will spread increasing clouds across the region tonight, with light rain/fzra likely toward dawn across the western half of the state. The increasing cloud cover and southerly breeze should cause temps to bottom out around 06Z, with rising temps toward dawn. However, model soundings and SREF probability charts still suggest there will likely be enough cold air near ground level to support a period of light fzra across parts of central Pa between 09Z-15Z, with emphasis over the northern mountains. Per coordination with adjacent offices, have held off on an advisory based on confidence levels below 80pct. Will highlight the threat to the Fri morning commute in the HWO. WAA lifts north of the region with 850mb baroclinic zone by midday Friday, indicating a dry and warmer afternoon across the area. Models indicate surface warm front will work into the central counties late in the day, pushing temps well into the 50s, while areas east of IPT and LNS will likely remain in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The models and ensembles continue to show a series of upper troughs progressing onshore from the Eastern Pacific and across the Southwest/South-Central Plains before deamplifying as they move east of the MS River. The first of 3 upper troughs emerges from the Southern Plains and crosses into the MS Valley Sunday and continues to weaken as surface frontal wave translates downstream crossing the OH Valley/Great Lakes into the northern Mid Atlantic states by Monday. Blend of NBM/ECENS/WPC still indicating max POPs in the Sunday-Sunday timeframe. Above average temperatures are expected over the weekend with the warmest day likely on Saturday with some sites approaching 70F over southern PA. Sunday should be markedly cooler behind a backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely through early next week, as 00Z GEFS indicates Pa remains beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs. The chance of showers will spike with passage of next shortwave Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Widespread VFR flying through the period. High to mid level clouds will increase tonight with surface winds veering to 90-160 degrees. Light precip will likely move across the airspace between 06-18z Friday, starting as RA/FZRA/PL before transitioning to all RA by 15z Friday. Added PROB30 group to hedge toward brief period of ice mix around daybreak Friday. Outlook... Fri...VFR/MVFR. Pcpn ending after 18z. Sat...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain northern 1/2 airspace. Sun-Mon...Sub-VFR with periods of rain.
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&& .CLIMATE... Minimum temperature records for 3/23 at select sites: MDT: 14 in 1934 IPT: 8 in 1906 BFD: 5 in 1959 AOO: 15 in 1960 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl AVIATION...Steinbugl CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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