Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191226 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 826 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
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SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE AS EXPECTED. CLOUDS STILL QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE SE...ADJUSTED CLOUD GROUPS SOME. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING UP THE EAST COAST AS IT THEN TILTS NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. 8H TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR- TERM. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND THEREAFTER WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF CLEARING. HAVE KEPT POPS DECREASING...AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND COLD AIR ALOFT...IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS...THE EXPECTED P-TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY HINDER ANY SNOW GENERATION. THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY YET CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK. LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL NOSE NE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AREAS OF FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER AND FROST DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH WILL BE DETERMINED BY ANY SLIGHT INCREASE OF WIND FROM A POSSIBLE WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT. ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW CONTINUES. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM COLD AIR INTO PA BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS MOVING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS ARE FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW AT BFD AND JST IN THE FORM OF MVFR CIGS. THESE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED...AND SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. BFD WILL BE THE BIG HOLDOUT...WHERE THE MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW THOUGH LOW STRATOCU WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT BFD. OUTLOOK... MON...NO SIG WX. TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GR LAKES.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ027-028- 049>053-056>059-063>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO NEAR TERM...CERU/MARTIN/EVANEGO SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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