Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250944 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 544 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30 POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400 CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO 50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS. TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE 1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION. THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z/09Z TAFS SENT. NO CHANGES MADE. ONLY MUI HAS ANY BR. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. 25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. 25/00Z... THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL

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