Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 192201 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 601 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to spread east across the Alleghenies into the central ridge and valley region during the mid afternoon and early evening before dissipating later tonight. Fair weather is expected Sunday and Monday, with temperatures turning warmer and more humid into early next week. Thunderstorms are probable on Tuesday followed by a refreshingly cooler and mainly dry second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... *Severe Thunderstorm watch #457 until 9pm for portions of southwestern and south-central PA. Risk for severe thunderstorms has increased throughout the day with SPC upgrading a portion of the area to SLGT risk. Large- scale NWP and CAM model guidance continue to exhibit considerable agreement indicating storms currently over east-central Ohio will spread into southwestern and south-central Pennsylvania during the late afternoon and early evening. Recent MCD highlights the evolving severe risk with cold air aloft and steep lapse rates promoting hail and locally damaging wind gusts - especially if storms can organize into short line segments. The most likely timing for storms is btwn 4 and 8pm. Expect convection to diminish in intensity/coverage as it pushes into east-central PA/Susquehanna Valley region during the late evening. Dry wx expected after midnight as high pressure builds over the area. Models are showing low stratus potential over the Alleghenies with weak upslope flow and low level moisture trapped under subsidence inversion. Patchy fog is also likely in the usual spots across the central valleys. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... Fair weather expected to end the weekend with seasonal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The medium range models are all in good agreement on bringing a renewed surge of heat and humidity into the area to start the new work week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be well up into the 80s with some southern locations possibly touching 90 Tuesday. There`s decent agreement in having a vigorous cold front pass through the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. That will be the best chance for organized precipitation coming up next week with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely starting late Tuesday, lasting into the overnight before tapering off as scattered showers Wednesday. The remainder of the week into the weekend looks to be cool and mainly dry as a sprawling high moves slowly eastward out of southern Canada. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Local thunderstorm impacts are possible between now and 04Z with the most favorable area affecting KJST, KAOO and KUNV. Clearing skies fcst tonight with models suggesting potential for IFR stratus/fog mainly over the western 1/2 of the airspace. Early morning restrictions will improve to VFR by 14Z. VFR conditions Sunday and Monday, except for areas of morning fog. .OUTLOOK... Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR, but restrictions in morning fog. Tue...Thunderstorm impacts likely. Wed...Improving conditions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Jung/Steinbugl

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