Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 150651 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 151 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak wave of low pressure, over the Mid Atlantic coast late this evening, will push out to sea overnight. High pressure will build east into the region for Sunday, followed by milder conditions that will work back into the area for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Radar at 03Z shows the last of the significant precipitation has ended. Some patchy fzdz still being reported across the southern half of the state, but near term models indicate even this will end by 06Z, as drier nw flow develops. IR imagery already showing clearing skies working into the NW Mtns at 03Z. Expect this clearing trends to overspread the rest of central Pa overnight, as high pressure builds in from the Grt Lks. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure will build into the area from the Great Lakes on Sunday, supplying us with fair weather and relatively light nwrly wind with highs mostly in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The stubborn trough/upper low over the west coast will weaken and lift across the southern plains into the great lakes region as a pattern change begins. Ridge over the area tries to hold firm as a warm front lifts through Ohio River Valley early in the upcoming week. This frontal boundary will be preceded and accompanied by a light, wintry mix of precip during the morning hours Monday. A good portion of next week is shaping up to be mild and showery, as bulk of med range guidance shows a ridge slowly retreating off the East Coast as remnants of that west coast low get picked up by the northern stream and track across PA midweek. For Tue into Tue night, deep southerly flow ahead of that trough will bring a plume of anomalous PWATS over the region which supports the idea of showery (rain) and mild weather. As has been the case frequently lately, the GFS brings the trough through faster than the ECMWF. Winds turn westerly behind the system as flow turns more zonal, but with no cold air in sight, temps will remain mild and above freezing. Ridge re-establishes itself over the eastern U.S. for late week, as mild SW flow persists over the midwest. Guidance suggests energy will dive south along the west coast eventually helping to strengthen the building upper ridge over the east. We`ll be on the eastern side of this, so subtle shortwaves sliding into the Midwest will bring varying amounts of cloudiness to the west (less in the east) with low end chances for light showers. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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IR satellite loop shows back edge of low clouds pushing south of KFIG-KIPT line. Expect MVFR/IFR cigs over the southern 1/2 to 1/3 of the airspace to improve to VFR by later this morning. VFR will persist for the remainder of today and through tonight. Outlook... Tue...Sub-VFR likely with freezing rain to rain. Wed...Sub-VFR possible with rain ending Wed ngt. Thu...No sig wx.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.