Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200114 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 914 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend. Low pressure is likely to track west of the state early next week with a trailing cold front coming through Pennsylvania Tuesday or early Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Extensive but thin high clouds are masking sct-bkn low clouds over the NW. However, the low clouds are breaking up a bit. Still, enough clouds and a little wind and slow temp and dewpoint falls so far are enough to nudge min temps up a deg or two - mainly in the NW and on the hill tops of the S. Otherwise, no precip with the dry front. Fog not likely, but a patch here or there is possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Strong upper ridge expands northward from the Ohio Valley on Friday...with large scale subsidence leading to another sunny day across central PA. 925mb temps of around 14C should translate to max temps in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Both the 12Z ECENS and NAEFS maintain an anomalous upper level ridge over the area through the weekend. This should ensure fair weather with above average temperatures Saturday to Sunday. Ensemble mean 925/850 temps support highs of 70-75F, while light wind and dry air result in seasonably cool nights. All medium range guidance indicating there will be a digging northern stream trough early next week over the upper midwest and Miss Valley that will eventually phase with closed low lifting out of the southern states. Considerable model difference exist with respect to timing/track of this southern stream shortwave, resulting in arrival of showers as early as Monday or as late as Tues PM. For now, have slowly ramped up the chance of rain beginning late Monday. However, will reserve the best chance of rain for Tuesday/Tues night, when bulk of med range guidance track shortwave and attendant plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture across the area. Early QPF estimates from operational runs and GEFS indicate 1+ inch amounts are possible. A period of near to below normal temperatures appears likely for the second half of next week, as upper trough swings east into the area. However, both GFS and ECMWF ensemble systems indicate the thrust of the chilly air will be directed west of Pa and there are indications of rising heights/milder weather across the entire eastern conus toward the end of the month. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... For the 00Z TAFS, did leave some fog in the IPT fcst late, based on obs late last night, and fcst from day shift. I did cut back on the fog some, given more westerly flow, and fcst dewpoints to drop off as the temperature drops overnight. More detail below. Very dry air in place. Still a breeze outside, as a weak cold front moves across the area. Aside from the normal spots like FIG and SEG that get some fog most nights, not expecting low CIGS or fog late. The main site that might be different is IPT. Great weather, VFR conditions expected, into the weekend. Maybe a little more fog toward the second part of the weekend, as dewpoints are fcst tp come up a little. Outlook... Sat-Sun...Patchy AM valley fog otherwise VFR. Mon-Tue...VFR to MVFR. Showers likely. LLWS. Strong FROPA. Wed...MVFR with shwrs likely, mainly west. Otherwise VFR. && .CLIMATE... Month-to-date, October 2017 is the warmest October on record at Harrisburg and Williamsport. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/DeVoir NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE...

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