Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCTP 311148
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
748 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
A cold front will move across the commonwealth late today through
early Thursday...bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A
refreshingly cooler airmass will overspread the region for Thursday
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Very lgt radar returns over far northern PA and into NY this
morning with trace amounts as far south as the Fingerlakes region.
You have to go as far north as Rochester to find actual measurable
amounts. This area of mainly aloft precip is occurring in the WAA
ahead of sfc cold front approaching from the Eastern glaks and
Ohio Valley. Cloud cover is precluding fog formation over the
northern half of central PA this morning...and temperatures are
quite a bit milder than recent mornings with pre dawn temps near
60 over the northwest mountains. Patchy fog is more prevalent the
farther south and especially southeast you look...with the
southeast Piedmont and its near 70 dewpoints garnering most of the
fog reports currently.
Clouds will continue to increase today along with the deeper layer
moisture advected into the region ahead of the front. CAPE and
shear will be lacking with the FROPA...and therefore SPC has
central PA in only general thunder for today. I am concerned for
strong tstorm potential over my southeast counties this afternoon
however...as limited high cloud can allow for several hours of
heating and perhaps more robust CAPES should sfc heating pan out.
This will need to be watched as the day wears on. Highs will reach
the upper 80s over southeast sections...while the remainder of
north central and central PA range from the upper 70s to the mid
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Front will slowly sag southeastward through late tonight...with
the bulk of its showers and scattered thunderstorms exiting the
southeast by or shortly past midnight. Strongly digging upstream
trof will keep scattered chance pops across most of the area
overnight and into Thursday morning...despite impressive deep
layer drying. Will continue to indicate the highest POPs over my
southeast in tandem with the best deep layer moisture and slow
moving front which will wait for a good shove from the secondary
upper trof carving out across central PA tonight and early
Thursday. Showers should last into Thursday evening across the
east as the upper trof axis will be slow to clear central PA.
Mins tonight will range from the mid 50s north to the mid to upper
60s southeast. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 70s north
to the lower 80s southeast. Even cooler and more pleasant
conditions will arrive to end the week.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cool down will last into the weekend with max temps mainly in the
70s Fri and Sat over the northern and western higher terrain,
with low to mid 80s elsewhere...as the upper trough deepens over
central Quebec and extends to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont. Temps
begin to creep up again late weekend into early next week.
Tropics remain active and despite no impacts anticipated for PA...
interesting evolution of TD9 after it slips across FL into the
Atlantic for Sun-Mon. Latest guidance is more progressive with the
storm taking it offshore before displaying a slight westward jog
on Monday...which could brush eastern Long Island or southern New
England if system is that far north. For central PA...it looks
like another prolonged dry and comfortable stretch of weather from
Friday through Monday/Tuesday.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions to prevail most of the day. Showers will be
across the northern 1/3 of the airspace through 18z. The greatest
risk for restrictions appears to be between 00-12z Thurs with
showers/isolated TS ahead of cold front pushing southeast from the
Lower Great Lakes followed by post-frontal low cigs especially
over the western higher terrain in ZOB sector. Modified the 31/12z
to best reflect this thinking. An increasingly drier northerly
wind should quickly spell improvement to VFR by later Thursday
Thu-Sun...No sig wx expected.