Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 311148 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 748 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the commonwealth late today through early Thursday...bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A refreshingly cooler airmass will overspread the region for Thursday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Very lgt radar returns over far northern PA and into NY this morning with trace amounts as far south as the Fingerlakes region. You have to go as far north as Rochester to find actual measurable amounts. This area of mainly aloft precip is occurring in the WAA ahead of sfc cold front approaching from the Eastern glaks and Ohio Valley. Cloud cover is precluding fog formation over the northern half of central PA this morning...and temperatures are quite a bit milder than recent mornings with pre dawn temps near 60 over the northwest mountains. Patchy fog is more prevalent the farther south and especially southeast you look...with the southeast Piedmont and its near 70 dewpoints garnering most of the fog reports currently. Clouds will continue to increase today along with the deeper layer moisture advected into the region ahead of the front. CAPE and shear will be lacking with the FROPA...and therefore SPC has central PA in only general thunder for today. I am concerned for strong tstorm potential over my southeast counties this afternoon however...as limited high cloud can allow for several hours of heating and perhaps more robust CAPES should sfc heating pan out. This will need to be watched as the day wears on. Highs will reach the upper 80s over southeast sections...while the remainder of north central and central PA range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Front will slowly sag southeastward through late tonight...with the bulk of its showers and scattered thunderstorms exiting the southeast by or shortly past midnight. Strongly digging upstream trof will keep scattered chance pops across most of the area overnight and into Thursday morning...despite impressive deep layer drying. Will continue to indicate the highest POPs over my southeast in tandem with the best deep layer moisture and slow moving front which will wait for a good shove from the secondary upper trof carving out across central PA tonight and early Thursday. Showers should last into Thursday evening across the east as the upper trof axis will be slow to clear central PA. Mins tonight will range from the mid 50s north to the mid to upper 60s southeast. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 70s north to the lower 80s southeast. Even cooler and more pleasant conditions will arrive to end the week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cool down will last into the weekend with max temps mainly in the 70s Fri and Sat over the northern and western higher terrain, with low to mid 80s elsewhere...as the upper trough deepens over central Quebec and extends to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont. Temps begin to creep up again late weekend into early next week. Tropics remain active and despite no impacts anticipated for PA... interesting evolution of TD9 after it slips across FL into the Atlantic for Sun-Mon. Latest guidance is more progressive with the storm taking it offshore before displaying a slight westward jog on Monday...which could brush eastern Long Island or southern New England if system is that far north. For central PA...it looks like another prolonged dry and comfortable stretch of weather from Friday through Monday/Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect VFR conditions to prevail most of the day. Showers will be across the northern 1/3 of the airspace through 18z. The greatest risk for restrictions appears to be between 00-12z Thurs with showers/isolated TS ahead of cold front pushing southeast from the Lower Great Lakes followed by post-frontal low cigs especially over the western higher terrain in ZOB sector. Modified the 31/12z to best reflect this thinking. An increasingly drier northerly wind should quickly spell improvement to VFR by later Thursday morning. Outlook... Thu-Sun...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Steinbugl

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