Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 210240 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1040 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 1030 PM UPDATE... ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AT THIS POINT WITH BIG LOW WELL TO THE SE AND UPSTREAM MOISTURE PRETTY FAR AWAY. THEREFORE THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLACKENING WIND SHOULDALLOW THE CURRENTLY MILD 50-SOMETHING TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO COOL OFF TO GOING LOWS. FROST ADVY WILL BE HELD - AS THE SERN SITES LIKE KTHV AND KLNS ARE ALREADY COOLER THAN MANY OTHER PLACES. 730 PM... FORECAST HOPPING ALONG NICELY. ALL IS AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED. PREV... FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN`T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE...QPF MAINLY .25 INCHES OR LESS. SOME CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. NICE DAY ON THU...SHOULD REMAIN DRY. DID SLOW SHOWERS DOWN FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME CHC OF THUNDER ON FRIDAY...AS TRIPLE POINT COMES CLOSE. LEFT OUT FOR NOW. SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ON SAT. DID CUT SHOWERS OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SE...EC NOT AS STRONG WITH THE NW FLOW. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE SFC DECOUPLES. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK BACK UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OUTLOOK... MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. THU...VFR FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/MARTIN SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...CERU/RXR

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