Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 301633 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1133 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NEW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN ZONES AND ARCTIC AIR IS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE RAP SHOWS THE CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ENTERING WESTERN PA SO TEMPS WHICH ARE STILL RELATIVELY MILD OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN 1/2 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA...WILL LEVEL OFF AND EVEN BEGIN FALLING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLDER DAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SEEING JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR PASSING FLURRY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... COLLABORATED A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SUSQ (ADAMS...LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES) FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING...MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION WIND GUST POTENTIAL. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE ARE WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING...SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE. WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. CONSENSUS BUILDING FOR A MODERATE SNOWSTORM TO AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL PA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOUCHED UP QPF AND SNOWFALL GRIDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME...INDICATING AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE IS FOR CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE SWEET SPOT...AND IT APPEARS THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS AN INCREASING THREAT GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. STILL TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCES FOR FOR A 5TH PERIOD AND BEYOND EVENT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED. HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... PREDOMINANTLY IFR AT BFD AND JST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS POST FRONTAL SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH. THROUGH THE CENTRAL AREAS THE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY CONTINUES BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER DARK. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY...IMPROVING AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-033-037-041-042- 045-046-049-051>053-058. WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ064>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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