Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281859 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 259 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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VERY WARM LATE OCTOBER AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT OVER CENTRAL OH. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND WELL INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST PA BY 21Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH STRONG MID LVL WINDS...MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY SVR WGUSTS FROM TSRA OVR WARREN CO EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST HALF OF MY AREA IN MRGL SPC OUTLOOK FOR STORMS. POPS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL PA. BOTH GEFS AND SREF SUPPORT CATEGORICAL OR NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SUSQ VALLEY WED MORNING ALONG SLOW MOVING CDFRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH DRYING ARRIVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LANCASTER CO BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP SKIES MCLDY WED. OVR THE NW MTNS LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE FORMING...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVR THE STILL WARM LK ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM EARLY AM LOWS WED. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING HIGHS FROM THE L50S NW MTNS...TO THE L/M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. RAINFALL AMTS FROM FROPA LOOK TO GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS BASED ON BLEND OF MDL QPF.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA ON FRIDAY...DELIVERING A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED W/SHORTWAVE...BUT MDL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SAT. COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE SHRA TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSS OVR THE NW MTNS...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AS COLD AS -8C TO -10C. UPPER LVL TROF IS PROGGED BY ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TO LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THIS OUTBREAK...AS SFC HIGH PASSES DIRECTLY OVR THE REGION. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUD CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS FROM 220 DEGREES LOCALLY 25-30KTS. COLD FRONT WITH SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN PA 00Z WED. VCNTY TSTORM IMPACTS AT KBFD. FRONT PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE FROM 00-12Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EAST BY THE AFTN. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND WX ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND LAKE EFFECT SHWRS APPEAR LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN TAFS BFD AND JST. OUTLOOK... THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST/VFR EAST. FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS. SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR- MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...ROSS/GARTNER/STEINBUGL

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