Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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096 FXUS61 KCTP 220546 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 146 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moved southeast through Pennsylvania Friday. Blustery northwest winds will usher in much colder air overnight and Saturday. Occassional like showers are possible through Saturday night especially across the mountain areas and the north. The first bout of lake effect and upslope rain and snow showers are possible over some of the higher ridge tops. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Patchy drizzle and very light showers continue over northwest mountains as cold air continues to sweep southeastward across the region. This is expected to coninute to diminish overnight as the trough slowly pushes east. Northwest winds will continue to gust 15 to 25 mph throughout. May see some flakes mix in over the highest terrain by morning...but not expecting accums at this time. Mins will range from the mid 30s north to the upper 40s southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A cool and unsettled day is in store Saturday as persistent northwest flow and progressively cooler boundary layer air is forced into the region. In fact 850 mb temps remain below 0 throughout the day throughout central PA...and we`ll certainly be looking at a few wet snowflakes mixing in at times with some of the showers over the higher terrain of the northwest and northern mountains. Under scenarios such as what we expect, the best chance for measurable precipitation usually favors these western and northern higher terrain areas with little more than sprinkles elsewhere. Maxes will range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower to middle 50s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As the surface and mid level systems track through eastern Quebec, a broad cyclonic/northwest flow pattern will continue into early next week. Models forecast lingering deformation or lake-enhanced pcpn to come to an end by early Sunday morning. Gusty winds will should weaken a bit with peak gusts not as strong as Saturday. Focus will shift upstream to a series of shortwaves diving southeast from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the Northern Mid Atlantic region. Models show some varying QPF solutions with these features, but with limited moisture look for max amounts in the 0.10 to 0.25 range over north-central PA. Following a brief moderation in sfc- 850mb temps on Sunday, the aforementioned shortwaves will bring a reinforcing shot of chilly air into the area with below normal temps forecast into the middle of next week. High pressure should provide dry weather Tue-Wed with pcpn probs increasing toward the end of the week, with GFS/EC models and ensembles showing a low pressure system reaching the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For the 03Z package, adjusted the timing of the patchy rain to the west some. Across the southeast, left VCSH in, given more activity lifting northward from MD. Earlier discussion below. 00Z TAFS sent. Problem will go from low clouds tonight to gusty winds on Saturday. A few rain showers tonight, may mix with some snow at JST and BFD by early morning. Improving conditions for the later part of the weekend. Visibility overall not expected to be very low over the next few days, except for brief time periods in heavier rain and snow showers. Outlook... Sun...No sig wx. Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW. Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Watson/La Corte NEAR TERM...Watson/DeVoir/La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.