Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 010006 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 806 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER SLATED FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... STILL QUITE ACTIVE ON THE RADAR FRONT. SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN FIRING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SRN CLEARFIELD COUNTY. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CLEARFIELD EASTWARD TO BETWEEN SELINSGROVE AND HARRISBURG INTO EASTERN PA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR. THE HRRR KEEPS CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EVENTUALLY TAPERING THINGS OFF OVER EASTERN AREAS DURING THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ALONG THE NY BORDER IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MADE TO SLOWLY SHEAR ENE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING THE WAVY FRONT CRAWLING THROUGH SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FROM CENTRAL PA WEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 80 IN THE SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTENINGAMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM MID WEEK ONWARD. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ADJUSTED TAFS FOR CONVECTION. 00Z TAFS SENT. WIND GUST TO 48 AND 50 KNOTS AT MDT. TWO SEPERATE CELLS FOR THIS SITE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH STORMS AND ADJUST FCST AS NEEDED. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. NORTHERN PA /NORTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/ IS UNDER A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR AND A BIT HAZY EARLY THIS AFTN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY HAS YET TO SEE MUCH ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT...AS CIGS LOWER AND VSBYS DROP. MONDAY WILL SEE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHIFT SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON SRN PA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA. WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO

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