Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 141225 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 825 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 8AM UPDATE... CLOUDS SLIDING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AND MAY HOLD HEATING DOWN A BIT. BUT THE MIXING SHOULD WORK ON THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS...BUT THE 3-4KFT DECK WILL BE TOUGHER TO THIN OUT. EARLIER ON THE AFD... SCT-BKN LAKE STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS TRAPPING LAKE MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS AND WILL KEEP LOCAL SCT-BKN SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. SLACKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIXING AND DISSIPATION OF THIS STRATUS BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE POCONO PLATEAU BY 12Z MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING... AND SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO COLLABORATE POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S. MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA... SHAVED BACK POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN COLLABORATION WITH PBZ AND CLE. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700 MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL. DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KJST AND KFIG IN LIFR WITH KBFD CURRENTLY AT MVFR. THE IFR SHOULD LIFT AND SLOWLY BECOME MVFR THIS MORNING...BUT THEY MAY NOT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A 3-5KFT DECK. OVERNIGHT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM STRATO CU/PATCHY FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLY MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TAF SITES. THE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... MON...NO SIG WX. MON NIGHT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. WED - THU...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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