-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 310550
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY
CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MID-LAKE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS SLIDING TOWARD KBUF AS MID-LVL WAVE
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. WEAK AND RATHER DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS OVER KPBZ AREA SHOULD BREAK UP/DISSIPATE EVEN MORE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND MAIN FORCING HEADS TO THE NE.
DISSIPATING SHOWERS IN THE SC/SE ARE ALSO NOT LONG FOR THE WORLD.
FORCING LULL IS FORSEEN FOR A FEW HOURS PRE-DAWN BEFORE THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE HURON AND HELPS TO
FIRE UP MORE/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SFC TEMPS SO COOL AND
CONVERGENCE UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH TO FORM UNTIL THEN. BUT THIS NEXT
SHORT WAVE IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARP THE MAIN LOW AND HAVE IT
WOBBLE A BIT N AND E LATER TODAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT AT NRN PENN THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE REFUELING TEMPORARILY FOR A DAY OR SO ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SCT/NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY
DRY - WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SFC HI
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE COOL AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE WEST/NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TEMPS THURSDAY MAY TRY TO SNEAK BACK TO NORMAL IN THE
SE...BUT THE N/W ZONES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISE OF A FEW
DAM...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC. LOWS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW NIGHTS WITH SKIES TRYING
TO CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS PLUME OF
HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHN
SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP FROM
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS. THERE
ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE DURATION AND
PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A DROP TO MVFR WHERE IT DOES RAIN.
ELSEWHERE...OCCASIONAL DROP TO IFR IN FOG IS OCCURRING WHERE RAIN
FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT AND NOT
RECOVER UNTIL SUNRISE.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO THE KBFD AREA LATER
IN THE DAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/TYBURSKI