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000
FXUS61 KCTP 151503
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1103 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A series of weak disturbances aloft will pass through the
region over the next day or so. Fair and less humid weather
will return for midweek before a new frontal system approaches
the area Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Meso anal shows a weak cold front extending out of Canada just
north of Lake Erie down through northern Ohio and Indiana.

An area of rain from VA to the the Mid Atlantic coast seems to
be associated with a weak shortwave aloft and an associated jet
entrance region over the NERN US. This will be our main weather
maker today with the HRRR showing the light rain continuing to
progress off to east. Models do develop some instability this
afternoon which will lead to more in the way of isolated pop up
showers and thunderstorms, but nothing suggests the presence of
any well organized forcing mechanism once the short wave over
the south moves on by.

Northern areas already have plenty of sunshine. At this point
the max temps across the region are expected to be a few deg
either side of 80. The progression of the clouds over SERN zones
suggests skies will not brighten any time soon which could put
the forecast highs in jeopardy down there.

Skies will tend to clear everywhere overnight as drier air works
into the state. Light winds and fair skies will likely lead to
late night valley fog formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Wednesday continues to look dry for now. However, the remnants
of a weak cold front from the north drops southward toward the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region over the region into
Thursday. However the 00Z EC/GFS/NAM are in good agreement of
another 500 MB trough approaching the region through the Great
Lakes Thursday afternoon. This will correspond with a mid level
closed low that will move through the peninsula of Michigan and
bring a warm frontal boundary through the state Friday. This
will allow for higher Max temperatures and a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.
Models begin to diverge into the weekend bu they have a cold
front moving through the mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday
morning. Based on NBM and latest mid range guidance have trended
temperatures upward.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR to LIFR conditions will improve to VFR by midday. A period
of light rain is most likely over the southeast 1/4 of the
airspace from around mid morning into the early-mid afternoon. A
secondary area of isolated showers may develop over the far
northwest airspace by late in the day. Fog impacts expected late
tonight into early Wednesday with some restrictions AOB airfield
mins.

.OUTLOOK...

Wed...AM Fog BCMG VFR.

Thu-Fri...Sct Tstm impacts likely.

Sat...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Ceru
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru
LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner
AVIATION...La Corte/Steinbugl