-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 020635
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
135 AM EST MON DEC 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK NORTH OF PA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...PUSHING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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MID LVL SHORTWAVE WORKING THRU CENTRAL PA IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AT 06Z. BOTH -SN AND
FZDZ HAVE BEEN REPORTED HERE IN STATE COLLEGE OVR THE LAST HOUR
AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS LGT MIXED PRECIP SCENARIO ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AM. HAVE ISSUED SPS TO HANDLE POSSIBILITY
OF ICY SPOTS EARLY THIS AM.

SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE FORCING WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY
ARND 10Z. IN IT/S WAKE...PLUME OF HIGHER PWAT AIR WILL REMAIN OVR
CENTRAL PA IN WSW FLOW AHEAD OF DYING COLD FRONT. OROGRAPHIC
FORCING OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS COULD SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
FZDZ OVR THE MTNS LATER THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ARE GOING TO HANG
TOUGH OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH FROM 06Z
READINGS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AS NEXT IN SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTS INTO THE THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WHICH WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO WED.

SOME CHC OF A SHOWER FAR NW MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. LEFT OUT FOR NOW...AS NOTED
BY PIT...SOUNDINGS COLDER THAN MINUS 10.

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TUE. PERHAPS A SHOWER FAR NW AGAIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS A DEGREE WARMER OR SO ACROSS THE
NW TUESDAY NIGHT.

CHC OF SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST...ON WED...AS WARM FRONT MOVES
NE OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WENT ON THE MILD SIDE...BUT
NOT REAL HIGH. TODAY IS AN EXAMPLE OF HOW AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WARM UP OK...BUT UNV...IPT...ABOUT AS COLD AS
ANYWHERE IN THE LOWER 48...BUT THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS.
NOT ENOUGH GRADIENT TO MIX IT TODAY...A LOT OF HZ...FOG...AND
SMOKE. HAD A DECENT SW FLOW YESTERDAY.

THU WILL BE A MILD DAY. MODELS FASTER NOW...AND NOT AS WET.
THUS DID CUT BACK QPF.

COLDER NOW FOR FRIDAY. THUS SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN.

PA ON EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS IN THE SPLIT FLOW FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

DID UP POPS A LITTLE.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH...BUT THE FRONT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO GET HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMNANTS OF DYING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL PA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER THE
FCST AREA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
WELL...AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO WITHIN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING...COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME
PATCHY ICE UNTIL TEMPS RECOVER EARLY MONDAY.
 CURRENTLY MVFR CIGS AT BFD...AOO AND JST...EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TOMORROW. THE WEAK FLOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE FROM A DYING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR LOCKED IN OVER THE STATE. EXPECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL TERMINALS TO ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LESS THAN VFR. EASTERN TERMINALS STAND
THE BEST CHANCE TO IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY NW HALF. MAINLY VFR SE.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...INCREASING MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND LIKELY REDUCTIONS...ESP LATE.

FRI...CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU