-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 090151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
851 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A LATE-WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH SFC FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA AS PER LATEST ANALYSIS. WEAK LARGE
SCALE LIFT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A HOMOGENEOUS AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF...LOCALLY ENHANCED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE ALLEGHENIES WHILE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS DRYING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MINIMIZING PRECIP
FOR MOST. EXCEPT THIS HOUR IS KIPT REPORTING VERY LIGHT RAIN.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONFIRMS THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE REST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA HOWEVER.

LIGHT SNOW CONTS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW FREEZING THERE. GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS REMAINING OVER WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. DOWNSLOPE E
OF THE MTNS SHOULD CONT TO LIMIT PCPN FROM THE CNTRL RIDGE/VALLEY
REGION INTO THE MID AND LWR SUSQ VLY.

LIGHT PCPN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AXIS SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE AFT 09Z. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE LAURELS IN THE
MORNING..AS MSTR ASCENDING THE HIER ELEVATIONS VIA WK UPSLOPE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER EXPECT A DRY BUT
COLDER DAY OVERALL WITH INC MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATER SUN INTO SUN
NGT DUE TO LOW-MID LVL WARM AIR/THETAE ADV CROSSING THE GRT LKS IN
ADVANCE OF CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE UPPER GRT LKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD MON INTO TUE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
IN NORTHERN STREAM SLIDES EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH TO
ADD LOW POPS TO MAINLY NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR EARLY WEEK. TEMPS
ACTUALLY RISE AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES BY WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ADVECTING IN WARMER TEMPS FROM THE MIDWEST.

MIDWEEK STILL LOOKING UNSETTLED AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER TEXAS ON
MONDAY GETS ABSORBED INTO SHARPENING TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. ECMWF AND GFS SUITES STILL INDICATE A GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION
/BEFORE MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING AS IT SLIDES OFF THE EAST
COAST/. EC STILL DEVELOPING A DEEPER TROUGH...WHICH RESULTS IN A
MORE IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE. THE GFS IS WEAKER...FLATTER AND A
BIT FASTER.

IF THE ECMWF/GEFS SOLUTIONS END UP VERIFYING...HEAVIEST PRECIP
OCCURS DURING THE DAY ON WED...WITH WARMEST 850MB TEMPS...
SUGGESTING THIS COULD BE PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WITH A WINTRY MIX FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE EVENT WED NIGHT INTO THU AS COLDER AIR GETS DRAGGED
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. BUT PRECIP RATES LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY BY
THEN.

NORTHERN STREAM DRIVES COLDER AIR INTO PA ON THU...BRINGING THE
CHILLIEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP BELOW -15C WITH A
NOTICABLE BREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE 10-15F BELOW NORMAL...AND LIKELY
FEEL EVEN CHILLIER.

COLD SPELL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN
COULD SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IF PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY FLATTENS A BIT AS PROGGED. BUT NO
LARGE-SCALE WARM UP IS ON THE HORIZON JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE LOW CIGS/VSBYS AT KBFD
AND KJST FROM A PERIOD OF SNOW IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHING SWD FROM THE LWR LKS. DOWNSLOPING W-NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER CLOUD BASES/VSBYS ACRS CNTRL AND SERN TAFS THIS EVE. SOME
LGT SNOW IS LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS
SWD...BUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS THERE SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AOA MVFR
RANGE.

IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON NW FLOW. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR CONDS AFTER
06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BFD/JST...WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING
MVFR STRATOCU. BY LATE MORNING...ANY LINGERING STRATOCU OVR THE W
MTNS SHOULD DISSIPATE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS MON NIGHT.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN OR SNOW.
THU...WINDY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD