Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 211904 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 304 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES. THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX ROLLING THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. A FEW LTG STRIKES ALREADY SEEN N OF UNV/FIG AND MORE IS POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT THE SUNSET SHOULD STABILIZE THINGS. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH VISBYS IN THOSE SHOWERS GENERALLY MVFR. MUCH OF THE TIME MAY BE VFR BEFORE NIGHTFALL. BUT THE STRATIFICATION TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND THEREFORE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MTNS WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ IN THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRES DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT UPPER LOW STILL VERY MUCH OVERHEAD AND INSTAB SHRA AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO

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