Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 151503 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1103 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak disturbances aloft will pass through the region over the next day or so. Fair and less humid weather will return for midweek before a new frontal system approaches the area Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Meso anal shows a weak cold front extending out of Canada just north of Lake Erie down through northern Ohio and Indiana. An area of rain from VA to the the Mid Atlantic coast seems to be associated with a weak shortwave aloft and an associated jet entrance region over the NERN US. This will be our main weather maker today with the HRRR showing the light rain continuing to progress off to east. Models do develop some instability this afternoon which will lead to more in the way of isolated pop up showers and thunderstorms, but nothing suggests the presence of any well organized forcing mechanism once the short wave over the south moves on by. Northern areas already have plenty of sunshine. At this point the max temps across the region are expected to be a few deg either side of 80. The progression of the clouds over SERN zones suggests skies will not brighten any time soon which could put the forecast highs in jeopardy down there. Skies will tend to clear everywhere overnight as drier air works into the state. Light winds and fair skies will likely lead to late night valley fog formation. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... Wednesday continues to look dry for now. However, the remnants of a weak cold front from the north drops southward toward the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will remain over the region over the region into Thursday. However the 00Z EC/GFS/NAM are in good agreement of another 500 MB trough approaching the region through the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon. This will correspond with a mid level closed low that will move through the peninsula of Michigan and bring a warm frontal boundary through the state Friday. This will allow for higher Max temperatures and a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Models begin to diverge into the weekend bu they have a cold front moving through the mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday morning. Based on NBM and latest mid range guidance have trended temperatures upward. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR to LIFR conditions will improve to VFR by midday. A period of light rain is most likely over the southeast 1/4 of the airspace from around mid morning into the early-mid afternoon. A secondary area of isolated showers may develop over the far northwest airspace by late in the day. Fog impacts expected late tonight into early Wednesday with some restrictions AOB airfield mins. .OUTLOOK... Wed...AM Fog BCMG VFR. Thu-Fri...Sct Tstm impacts likely. Sat...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte/Ceru SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte/Steinbugl

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