Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260246 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1046 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LOW LVL INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW/COLD POOL ALOFT STILL PRODUCING EXTENSIVE STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING...WHILE DRY SLOT OF LOW-PWAT AIR RESULTING IN MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS ALOFT JUST COOL ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF LK ERIE...SUPPORTING A FEW -SHRA ACROSS THE NW WARREN CO. AS BLYR COOL/STABILIZES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER/SPRINKLES TO DECREASE MARKEDLY. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES...WHERE LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU SHOULD PERSIST. THINKING IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF TONIGHT CAN BE COVERED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WARREN CO...WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHC OF RAIN ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS LK MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WILL PUSH INTO NW PA TOWARD DAWN...INTRODUCING A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES AT THAT TIME. CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL MTNS TOWARD DAWN. LATEST SREF...LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW 00Z DWPT DEPRESSIONS AND TIME OF YEAR...HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT IT. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT FOR LATE AUGUST WITH LOWS FROM THE U40S OVER PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE COLD NW FLOW IS USED TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT QPF OVER NWRN PA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IT`S HARD TO BUY OFF ON THE HIGH SREF POPS...WITH THE LOWER GEFS CHANCE POPS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FAVORING THE AREA TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CLEARFIELD UP TO ELMIRA IN SOUTHERN NY. THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA WILL SEE MORE OF A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE SNEAKING OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE CHILLER THAN TODAY BY AN AVERAGE OF 3-5 DEG. REFRESHING BUT COOL FOR LATE SUMMER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A DEEP UPPER LVL LOW WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME GUIDANCE SHOW A SYSTEM TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. MID SHIFT PUT SOME SHOWERS IN...THUS I LEFT THEM IN. 12Z GFS40 SHOWS MORE RIDGING ALOFT...THUS HARD TO SEE MUCH GOING ON...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER TO SUNDAY. THE MAIN CHANGE I MADE WAS TO UP TEMPS SOME IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE OTHER CHANGE...WAS TO CLEAN UP THE LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR SOME PERIODS...ESPECIALLY NEXT MONDAY. SUSPECT THIS RESULTED FROM THE UPGRADE TO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM YESTERDAY...A NEW BUILD UPDATE. I COULD NOT FIND ANY GUIDANCE TODAY THAT WOULD SUPPORT ANYTHING THAT DRY WORKING SE INTO PA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH WHERE OCNL CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-3000` AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BACK TO 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY VFR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MVFR STRATOCU WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BRADFORD...AND COULD EVEN WORK SOUTH INTO THE JOHNSTOWN TERMINAL...BUT IS NOT IN THEIR TAF AT THE MOMENT. OUTLOOK... WED...MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHOWERS NW MTNS. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX EXPECTED. THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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