Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 041427 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SO FAR TIMING IS HOLDING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD NOW ENTERING MY EASTERN ZONES. WE WILL SEE SLOW DRYING AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. THE HRRR STILL FORMS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...ON THE EDGE OF THE MORE SOLID CLOUDS IN AN AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY. FROM EARLIER... FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY. A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET. LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PA IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS OF MID MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ BURNS OFF. OUTLOOK... SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL

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