Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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751 FXUS61 KCTP 211856 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 156 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An extended period of mild weather with well above normal temperatures will continue through the end of this week. A weak cool front will push through the state late today and tonight. A stronger cold front is expected for Friday into Saturday, followed by a shot of colder air with gusty westerly winds over the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Radar loops show the frontal band moving into the eastern Gr Lakes losing organization fairly quickly. So despite the continued trend toward clouds increasing from the west, confidence remains high that the majority of the area will remain dry into the evening hours. Radar shows some light echoes streaking east, but the nearest rain reaching a surface station is back over SERN Michigan. Latest HRRR shows the chance of a few showers working into the northwest mountains around or shortly after sunset with little more than an isolated shower possible over the remainder of the CWA through sunrise Wed. With the northern and southern streams disengaging from one another, the rain chances will tend to split north and south of the area. The SREF has high POPs and appears to be the outlier. I leaned closer to the Superblend which shows just very low chances for a stray shower. We have yet another very mild night in store with temperatures averaging 15-25 deg above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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The weak cold front will either stall or fall apart right over the local area later tonight and Wed. Model soundings suggest a fair amount of cloudiness hanging in over the state, but we will probably not see more than a stray shower in a few spots. Sunshine, mixed with varying amounts of clouds will be the rule. Considering the mild start to the day, and GEFS mean 850 mb temps of 7-8C, we should see max temps easily reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Gradually milder temperatures will return for the extended period as no genuine cold air push is in sight. High temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures mainly above freezing. Deepening Swrly flow for the second half of the week will cause temps to rebound to well above normal (and perhaps near record levels in some locations). The overall, large-scale pattern becomes more amplified late in the week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Thursday and Friday with warm front lifting through, and bringing increasing rain chances heading into the weekend, followed by a shot of colder/windy conditions Saturday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Widespread VFR will continue into tonight even as clouds increase ahead of weakening frontal system approaching from the Midwest. MVFR ceilings are likely along with a period of light rain showers later this evening into early Wednesday morning across the NW 1/3 of the airspace. Sub VFR conditions will be most likely the first half of Wed over the higher elevations form the Laurels to the northern mountains, with conditions improving back to VFR during the afternoon. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Mainly VFR with possible rain showers and brief restrictions. Sat...LLWS. Strong FROPA with sub-VFR likely in moderate rain showers. Isolated TS psbl. Post-frontal NW wind gusts 25-35kts psbl with snow showers NW 1/3 Saturday night into early Sunday. Sun...Sub VFR Laurels up into the Northern Mountains along with scattered lake enhanced snow showers.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte

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