Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241442 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1042 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Much drier and cooler air will arrive today and last through much of the coming week. Widely scattered showers may pop up each afternoon across the northern part of the state, though.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Diurnal cumulus lined up running NW-SE through the area late this morning as deep mixing dries up the water laying around. Dewpoints are going down very slowly, but this drying should accelerate in the afternoon, especially over the NW. Current maxes look on track. Shortwave running across the lower lakes later today could add just enough dynamics to the shallow instability across the northern tier to pop isold-sct shra this afternoon and these could last into the SW/C mountains before dying in the early evening. Minor tweaks - to sky cover mainly.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Any late afternoon showers will diminish quickly this evening as diurnal heating is lost. Skies will become mostly clear and it will be very comfortable overnight over especially northern and western sections where lows will bottom out around 50F. Mins across the southeast will fall to the lower 60s. Sunday will be a similar afternoon to Saturday...with lapse rates steep enough to support isolated to scattered afternoon showers over mainly western and northern sections. Highs will be several degrees cooler throughout...ranging from the upper 60s northwest to around 80F southeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models have trended toward much better agreement with the evolution of the seasonably strong large scale upper trough over the Eastern U.S. A couple of shortwave impulses reflecting weak surface fronts or troughs will provide a limited/mainly diurnal opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low- topped thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. However, much of the this period will be pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting low humidity and below normal temperatures relative to late June climatology. The trough is fcst to lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by the middle of the week, followed by a resurgence of the Southeast U.S. upper ridge. Models and ensembles show the ridge breaking down in the west as a trough shifts east across the Rockies into the Plains. Southerly flow increasing ahead of its attendant frontal system should result in an upward/warmer trend in temperatures accompanied by low level moisture/humidity. Expect max/min temps to get back to seasonal levels around midweek and likely reaching above normal levels by next Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Deep Vertical mixing up to around 7kft agl will transport some moderate westerly wind gusts of 20-25mph to the surface beginning around 13-14Z and continuing through the late afternoon, before subsiding twd dusk. VFR now, and expect this to continue for the entire period. Just an isold shra is possible near KBFD this afternoon. There is the tiniest chc for a weak shower to get to KUNV before any shra dissipate with loss of heating. .OUTLOOK... Sun-Tue...Mainly VFR. Isold-Sct aftn shra far N. Wed-Thu...VFR.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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KCCX radar will be offline for approximately 4 days starting today, Saturday, June 24th, for technicians to install the first of 4 major service-life extension upgrades. The work on the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations and will be delayed if hazardous weather is forecast.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Lambert NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Jung/Lambert EQUIPMENT...

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