Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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817 FXUS61 KCTP 210753 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 353 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure well to the north of the state will slide to the south and east tonight and be centered over the eastern seaboard on Sunday morning. Low pressure will move from the plains states into the upper Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. A cold front will push through the state later Monday. The weather will remain unsettled through the week as a large upper level trough advancing slowly from the midwest. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Subsidence inversion persists this evening with low broken to overcast now being overrun by increasing mid to high cloudiness from the west as upper ridge tracks eastward. Am not expecting substantial improvement overnight in areas where the clouds currently remain, as inversion trapping llvl moisture will keep mostly cloudy skies with isolated drizzle and the HRRR even indicating isolated showers traversing the north central and central mountains. Mid/high clouds will continue to increase overnight...while winds go light. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Expect most of the area to remain rain free for the balance of the day on Sunday. POPs will be high over the west as heights fall sufficiently there by the end of the day. The morning cloud debris overhead will probably hold temps down, but not as cool as Sat. A more- southerly wind will push temps into the m-u60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front should cross central Pennsylvania Sunday night into early Monday, accompanied by scattered showers and possibly some thunder. Looks like flow from the south (parallel to the front) will push a wave up the east coast during the day on Monday, with a period of moderate rain poss in eastern counties (though biggest impacts look to be east of CWA). Lighter precip ends from the west during the day. A weak area of high pressure will build in for Mon night and Tuesday with a cooler morning and maybe some patchy fog in store. Weather pattern turns unsettled again during the middle and later part of the week, as an upper-level low drops into the Great Lakes and surface low pressure develops over the Mid- Atlantic region. Light showers may begin to work into the region on Wed, with Thursday looking quite wet and dreary as a soaking rain looks likely. The upper-low should begin to lift out by Friday, allowing conditions to slowly improve. Light showers or drizzle may linger under the upper low on Friday keeping a coolness in the air. The weekend should bring a return of brighter skies, warmer temps and dry weather. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A moist southeast flow ascending the Appalachians is resulting in IFR cigs early this morning at BFD and JST with MVFR at UNV and AOO. Model soundings and SREF probability charts both indicate the low clouds will mix out after sunrise, with widespread VFR conditions by late this morning. A slow-moving cold front will approach the region late today and tonight, accompanied by rain and falling cigs. Current model data indicates IFR/LIFR conditions will become likely overnight. .OUTLOOK... Mon...Rain/low cigs likely, mainly in the morning. Tue...Rain/log cigs possible by evening. Wed...AM rain/low cigs possible. Thu...AM fog possible, then scattered PM tsra impacts possible.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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