Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCTP 152344
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
644 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania tonight. A frontal
system will approach Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will
return to close out the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Surface high over Pa will provide the region with fair weather
overnight. Cirrus streaming across southern Pa will hold temps up
a bit down there, while a clear sky and light wind allow temps to
fall through the teens across the northern Mtns. All model data
indicating weak shortwave and associated batch of rain over the
Ohio Valley will pass south of Pa overnight.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A warm front will be advancing northward through the Ohio Valley
on Monday, spreading increasing clouds across central Pa.
Strongest WAA indicated across NW Pa toward the end of the day,
where a few showers are possible. Further south, an increasingly
moist southeast flow at low levels, will likely create some
drizzle over the higher terrain of Somerset/Bedford counties
by late in the day. Model soundings showing a nearly saturated
0-1km layer in this region by 21Z. Highs Monday expected range
from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The stubborn trough/upper low over the west coast will weaken and
lift across the southern plains into the Great Lakes region as a
pattern change begins. An upper ridge over the area tries to hold
firm as a warm front lifts through Ohio River Valley early in the
upcoming week. This frontal boundary could be preceded and
accompanied by a light, wintry mix of precip during the early to
mid morning hours Tuesday.
A good portion of the upcoming week is shaping up to be mild and
showery (especially Tuesday) as the bulk of med range guidance
shows a ridge slowly retreating off the East Coast as remnants of
that west coast low get picked up by the northern stream and track
across PA during the midweek.
For Tue into Tue night, deep southerly flow ahead of that trough
will bring a plume of anomalous PWATS over the region which
supports the idea of showery (periods of steady rain on Tuesday)
and mild weather. As has been the case frequently lately, the GFS
brings the trough through faster than the ECMWF. Followed close to
the Nat`l Blend of models vary high, 90-100 pops for Tuesday
surround on either side by mainly likely pops.
Winds turn westerly behind the system as flow turns more zonal,
but with no cold air in sight, temps will remain mild and above
Ridge re-establishes itself over the eastern U.S. for late week,
as mild SW flow persists over the midwest. Guidance suggests
energy will dive south along the west coast eventually helping to
strengthen the building upper ridge over the east. We`ll be on
the eastern side of this, so subtle shortwaves sliding into the
Midwest will bring varying amounts of cloudiness to the west (less
in the east) with low end chances for light showers.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Looking at mainly mid and high clds prior to 00Z Tue. Perhaps some
lower clouds (BKN035 OVC070) at JST and AOO late. Went with VFR
conditions prior to 00Z Tue.
As of 5 PM, a look outside the office showed mid clouds just
south of the office. Radar and models show this system pulling
away from the area. Next system for late Monday.
Tue...Sub-VFR likely with freezing rain to rain.
Wed...Sub-VFR possible west with rain showers. VFR elsewhere.
Thu-Fri...No sig wx.
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte