Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 210631 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 231 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THRU PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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REGIONAL RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET ATTM. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS REGION FROM WVA /IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/. THE NEXT VORT MAX DIVING INTO BASE OF TROF AND ARRIVING OVR THE NW MTNS ARND 12Z COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLD -SHRA OVR THE NW MTNS TOWARD DAWN. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH BASED STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY TODAY. THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL COMBINE WITH A NEARLY CALM WIND AND NARROW SFC DWPT DEPRESSIONS TO CREATE PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG UNTIL BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z. THE LGT SERLY FLOW AND RESULTING OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD EVEN RESULT IN DEVELOPING STRATUS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT...05Z DWPTS SUPPORT EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS FROM THE U50S IN THE COOLEST VALLEYS OF THE NORTH...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... ANY EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING UPPER TROF AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS/INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT FROM IT/S LOCATION OVR OHIO/NW PA TODAY...TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT FOCUS OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BE OVR CENTRAL PA. THE 15Z SREF SHOWS CAPES CREEPING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE ON SOME CONVECTION POPPING IN THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE STEADILY WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS. 18Z GEFS MEAN 925TEMPS INDICATE HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WHICH IS A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. HOWEVER...DWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE MID SUMMER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/. A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE /LAST NIGHTS SFC OBS AND EARLY MORNING TRENDS/ WITH CURRENT CONDS FOR THE 21/06Z SCHEDULED TAFS. DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR/THIN T-TD SPREADS...COMBO OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WITH LACK OF OBSERVED RAFL SEEMS TO BE KEEPING RESTRICTIONS AOA MVFR FLGT CATS. MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR /SCT-BKN CU WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT AGL/ BY LATE MORNING/AFTN. LIFT ASSOCD WITH LEFTOVER BROAD/WEAK UPPER TROUGH CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE...COUPLED WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WDLY SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACRS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTN. CVRG AND PROBS OF PCPN ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN POINT BASED TAFS ATTM. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...GIVING WAY TO PATCHY FOG/LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINLY E OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. OUTLOOK... TUE...MAINLY VFR. SCT A.M MVFR FOG/CIGS. WDLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FROPA WILL LKLY BRING SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRI...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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