Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191025 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 625 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move across the region Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will stay above normal but rise even higher each day through Tuesday as a ridge builds aloft. Another cold front should trigger showers around mid-week and the week should end on a cooler note. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Skies are mainly clear to partly cloudy and the night time Microphysics imagery is starting to show some valley fog forming over middle and upper Susq Valley. An anomalously vigorous (for mid August) shortwave and secondary cold front can be seen moving through the lower lakes tracking eastward. After a sunny start to the day, clouds will be on the increase with the approach of the shortwave. Guidance is in good agreement with developing some modest instability coupled with moderate shear as the trough swings through this afternoon. Forecast soundings show an inverted V signature and the RAP displays downdraft CAPEs in the 800-1500J range over much of the Central and Northern Mountains by early to mid afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to become most numerous in the 18-00Z timeframe and some of the stronger updrafts could cause locally damaging winds and perhaps some marginally severe hail. The best chance for rain will be over the central and northern areas. The latest HRRR runs are not as aggressive with shower development so I lowered POPs a bit into the high chance range. SPC has highlighted the region with a Marginal Risk to cover the severe storm potential. Expect convection to diminish in intensity/coverage as it pushes into eastern Pa during the cooling hours of Saturday evening. Any lingering showers early will turn into a dry and much less humid overnight, compared to the last few. While overnight lows will be near to even a bit above normal, it will feel much more comfortable with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... The quick exit off to the east of the sharp shortwave will lead to a bright day Sunday with a light breeze and comfortable humidity. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The medium range models are all in good agreement on bringing a renewed surge of heat and humidity into the area to start the new work week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be well up into the 80s with some southern locations possibly touching 90 Tuesday. There`s decent agreement in having a vigorous cold front pass through the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. That will be the best chance for organized precipitation coming up next week with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely starting late Tuesday, lasting into the overnight before tapering off as scattered showers Wednesday. The remainder of the week into the weekend looks to be cool and mainly dry as a sprawling high moves slowly eastward out of southern Canada. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Most of the low clds and fog gone now. Should be a decent mid summer day. Perhaps a shower or storm later this afternoon into the early evening hours, as a secondary cold front moves across the region. Adjustments made to the 09Z TAF set. A nice day on Sunday, with almost no chance of a shower for a change. .OUTLOOK... Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR, but restrictions in morning fog. Tue-Wed...SHRA/TSRA poss.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Martin

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