Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 190602 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 202 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
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THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EAST AS IT GOES NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING. 8H TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR-TERM...BUT REBOUND QUICKLY THEREAFTER WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF CLEARING. EXPECT P-TYPE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS/SNIZZLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...KEPT POPS AOB 50 PCT AND LEFT OUT MENTION OF ACCUMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS AT BAY. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL NOSE NE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH BY SUN AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A GUSTY NW WIND IN THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS/... SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT THIS POINT. A FROST ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME AND CAN MENTION THAT ASPECT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW CONTINUES.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS COLD AIR STREAMS IN TO PA BEHIND COLD FROPA EARLIER TODAY...UPSLOPE NWRLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT IFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE HERE IN HEAVIER...BUT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL STAY MAINLY VFR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD ONLY DECREASE BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO OVERNIGHT...STILL STAYING QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WNW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK... MON...NO SIG WX. TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GR LAKES. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/EVANEGO SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER

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