Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191400 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1000 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the eastern conus through the upcoming weekend. Low pressure is likely to track west of the state early next week with a trailing cold front coming through Pennsylvania Tuesday or early Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Pockets of thick fog hanging touch in KIPT vicinity. Other than this, a moisture challenged front is dropping into the northwest mountains this morning, and will do little more than produce a wind shift as the day progresses along with temporary increase in mid level cloud as it passes. A good amount of sunshine will push readings to near 70F by this afternoon. Lack of significant forcing and deep moisture support POPs near zero.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A slight increase in low level moisture and an active breeze in vicinity of dying front should result in milder conditions tonight in general across central Pa. However, a weaker gradient and drier air behind front should allow for better radiational cooling and patchy fog across the northwest mountains Friday morning. Min temps are expected to range from around 40F over the northwest mountains, to the upper 40s across the southeast part of the forecast area. Anomalous upper ridge will expand northeast from the Ohio Valley on Friday. Large scale subsidence with this feature should result in another sunny day. Ensemble mean 925mb temps of around 14C should translate to max temps in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Both the 00Z ECENS and NAEFS maintain an anomalous upper level ridge over the area through the weekend, which should ensure fair weather with above average temperatures Sat-Sun. Ensemble mean 925/850 temps support highs of 70-75F, while light wind and dry air result in seasonably cool nights. All medium range guidance indicating there will be a digging northern stream trough early next week over the upper midwest and Miss Valley that will eventually phase with closed low lifting out of the southern states. Considerable model difference exist with respect to timing/track of this southern stream shortwave, resulting in arrival of showers as early as Monday or as late as Tues PM. For now, have slowly ramped up the chance of rain beginning late Monday. However, will reserve the best chance of rain for Tuesday/Tues night, when bulk of med range guidance track shortwave and attendant plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture across the area. Early QPF estimates from operational runs and GEFS indicate 1+ inch amounts are possible. A period of near to below normal temperatures appears likely for the second half of next week, as upper trough swings east into the area. However, both GFS and ECMWF ensemble systems indicate the thrust of the chilly air will be directed west of Pa and there are indications of rising heights/milder weather across the entire eastern conus toward the end of the month. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Radiational valley fog should dissipate by 15z giving way to widespread VFR. Surface wind gusts will reach the 15-20kt range over the western 1/2 of the airspace from late this morning through the afternoon. A dry cold front will push across the airspace this evening and early tonight accompanied by a directional wind shift from 220-260 to 270-330 degrees. High pressure moves back over PA late tonight into Friday morning. Outlook... Fri-Sun...Patchy AM valley fog otherwise VFR. Mon-Tue...VFR to MVFR. Showers likely. LLWS. Strong FROPA.
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&& .CLIMATE... Month-to-date, October 2017 is the warmest October on record at Harrisburg and Williamsport. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru AVIATION...DeVoir/Steinbugl CLIMATE...

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