Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 160207 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1007 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build toward the area from the Upper Great Lakes overnight, bringing dry conditions through Saturday. Temperatures will still be unseasonably mild for the start of the weekend. Another cold front will usher in a change to a colder airmass by late Saturday night and Sunday and the cold air will persist into the midweek period accompanied by a chance for snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Plenty of shallow, non-precipitating strato cu based between 1.5-2.5 kft agl will be found across the Northern and Western Mountains of Pennsylvania overnight, with skies becoming generally partly cloudy across the Central Ridge and Valley Region and Lower Susq Region. Lows temps around sunrise Saturday will range from 30F throughout the perennial cold spots in the NW Mtns to 40F in the larger Metro Areas throughout the Lower Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Saturday looks like a winner - in between cold fronts. A ridge of high pressure will move east across the CWA early Saturday and will be near the Mid Atlantic Coast by noon. Temps will be still above normal and in the 50s to low 60s on Saturday. A gusty west to southwest wind reaching the 20-25 KT range will develop during the late morning and continue through the afternoon as the depth of vertical mixing climbs to between 6-7 kft AGL. Gusts in the upper 20s (KTS) could occur across parts of the Alleghenies in Western PA. A few rain showers could sneak into Warren County toward dusk where POPS are around 20 percent. Increasing clouds with a few rain showers area expected across primarily the Northern and Western Mtns later Sat night into early Sunday and the rain showers should mix with wet snow at times after midnight Sat night with sfc temps slipping into the mid-upper 30s and 850 mb temps falling to between -2 and -4C. Elsewhere, some brief showers are possible near a KAOO to KUNV and KIPT line, while the SE may escape with nothing more than a few light sprinkles early Sunday. For Sunday, the showers will break up/end for the most part as the cold front moves past the spine of the Appalachians early on. High temperatures will be near normal in the NW, but still a little milder than normal for St Patrick`s Day parades. As any leftover showers go thru the S and linger in the NW, you may see a rainbow if you look to the west (morning rainbows are more- rare than evening bows), but that`s a tough call to make this far away. Might have to see the radar on Sun morning to give yourself the best chance at finding the pot of gold. Of course, this forecast is gold, but not quite bitcoin. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Noticeably cooler, near seasonal temps, appear likely Sunday/Sun night. Several distinct short waves and rounds of diff PVA will track SE from the Glakes and bring rather frequent snow showers and a few bands of heavier squalls to PA`s Northern and Western Mtns for much of the first half of the long term period, with brief snow showers making it into the Central Mtns and Middle Susq Valley at times. The bulk of medium range guidance then tracks a potent upper level shortwave and cold front through the region Monday. A round of snow showers/squalls could accompany the passage of this feature Monday. Strong large scale forcing, steep lower tropospheric lapse rates and even some cape are evident in some models with the fropa, signaling a potential of squalls. The middle and upper portion of the thick stratocu clouds will reside within the Dendritic Growth Zone across the Laurel Highlands and NW mtns Sunday night through Tuesday with sfc temps by day in the low to mid 30s and mins at night in the 20s. This temp profile will support light snow accums for much of the Alleghenies with localized accums of several inches, esp across the Perennial snowbelt of Warren and NW Mckean Counties. Still some model spread from day to day and run to run, to how the fcst plays out after Tuesday. Not real clear cut to how much warm up will occur mid to late week. Still looking like by late week it could trend rather wet again. Below normal temperatures and lake effect snow showers appear likely Tue/Wed, as upper level troughing and a cold northwest flow over the Grt Lks remains in place. Fair weather and moderating temperatures appear likely by next Thursday, as the upper trough begins to lift out.
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&& .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR cigs were found over the western highlands at 00z, with VFR conds elsewhere beneath a 3-5 kft cloud deck. Breaks in the clouds are forming over the mid-Susq Valley. Expect borderline IFR/MVFR cigs over the western highlands (BFD, JST) overnight, with predominantly VFR conds elsewhere. The northwesterly breeze will diminish overnight. Lingering low clouds over the western highlands should quickly dissipate on Saturday, with a west/southwesterly breeze developing and gusting 15-20 kts by aftn ahead of an approaching cold front. Clouds will begin to increase from the northwest again late in the day, as the front nears. Outlook... Sat night-Sun...Rain showers with MVFR cigs developing, primarily N/W PA. Some snow could mix in as colder air arrives on Sunday. Predominantly VFR elsewhere. Sun night-Tues night...Occasional snow showers and reductions across primarily N/W PA. Gusty W/NW winds areawide. Wed...Improving conditions. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19 at 11:06 PM EDT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Martin NEAR TERM...Lambert/Martin/Tyburski SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin/Tyburski LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...Evanego CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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