Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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872 FXUS61 KCTP 241849 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 249 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the region by midweek. A cold front will likely push southeast across the region next Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Scattered to numerous showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms have progressing across the north central, central, west central mountains and laurels at mid afternoon. Most have low cores producing brief downpours, but a few are persisting in a lines producing additional heavy rain in areas that saw enough of it last night. Lycoming and Clinton Counties may see some minor flooding from current shower/tstorm complex crossing the area through 400 pm. Minor rotation seen in northern Cambria with pendant type echo there. Overall sub severe cells expected, but will need to be monitored through this evening as they progress into more unstable air to the east. SPC has indicated only 5% likelihood of a Watch issuance, and agree. Main threat will be brief (in most cases) downpours and gusty winds to 40 mph as cells race to the east at 30 mph or faster. Front clears my eastern counties as per CAMs by late evening. Drier air overspreads central PA late tonight and early Tuesday, bringing an end to the latest very humid seige. Mins tonight will range from the more comfortable mid 50s north to the mid 60s southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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A much more pleasant air mass will be over the region on Tuesday bringing a more comfortable day with little to no chance of rain for a change. Clouds may linger for a time over the Alleghenies and keep temps a bit lower than guidance. Highs will only reach the upper 60s north...and range through the 70s to the lower 80s elsewhere. A nice change with dewpoints in the 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Not a lot of change from yesterday. Still going mainly with dry conditions Tuesday night into Wed. Models show pair of weak lows just inland from the south shore of the lower Great Lakes, not sure what to make of this. A strange summer lately. Still expecting showers and storms on Thursday into the first part of Friday, with the next cold front. Went with mainly dry conditions after early Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Upper trough and sfc cold front will cross central PA by evening bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to central and eastern PA mid to late afternoon with intermittant localized impacts. Showers diminish by evening, but linger the longest in the northern mtns. This is also the best chance for ceiling restrictions tonight. With plenty of low level moisture around, expect valley fog to develop areawide as well. .OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed...AM cig restrictions north/west. Valley fog areawise. Otherwise no sig wx. Thu...Chance of afternoon TSRA/SHRA. Fri...Slgt chc of morning shra...otherwise VFR. Sat...VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR

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