Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 181653 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING LATER ON SUNDAY. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PERIOD WITH A BRIEF WARM UP EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COMPACT MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY ...HELPING TO PUSH A MOISTURE-LIMITED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CU WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L60S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH /OR JUST A FEW DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TONIGHT WILL BY QUITE COLD WITH FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLDEST VALLEYS. A FROST ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED /DURING THE DAY TODAY/ FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PA FOR FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT LATEST...00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING BORDERLINE TEMP/DEWPOINTS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST UP NORTH ATTM...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...DECISION WAS TO DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FLAGS UNTIL THE DAYSHIFT CAN BOOST CONFIDENCE IN EITHER DIRECTION WITH MORE DEFINITIVE GUIDANCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WARMER AIR AND HIGHER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ON INCREASING SW FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA /RETREATING TO THE EAST/. AT THE SAME TIME...TROUGH BEGINS TO CARVE INTO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES PA FOR SUN/MON. THE RESULT WILL BE A PAIR OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAYS SAT-SUN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND TAKING A RUN AT 80F IN THE SE. WE/LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM OUR RUN OF CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AS LOWS REMAIN WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A PERIOD OF LOW/STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PA SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE WETTEST WITH QPF POTENTIALLY UP TO 0.25...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MENTION FOR SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W CWA. COOLER AIR ON NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY/S HIGHS ABOUT 8-10F COOLER AND TUESDAY FALLING ANOTHER 5F OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S MON NIGHT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S POSS IN THE NORTHERN MTNS TUE NIGHT. TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK IN. AS FLOW AGAIN TURNS AROUND TO THE SW...REGION SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMUP FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AFTER AREAS OF MORNING FOG...ALL AIRFIELDS HAVE RETURNED VFR CONDS WITH FAIR WEATHER CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TODAY...A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THRU THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. THEN ONCE AGAIN...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL REDUCE FLYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REINTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH. SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. SUN...SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS W MTNS. MON - TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER NEAR TERM...GARTNER SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.