Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 210617
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
117 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017
An extended period of mild weather with well above normal
temperatures is expected through the end of the week. A weak
cool front will push through the state late Tuesday and Tuesday
night. A stronger cold front is expected for Friday into
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Expect fair weather overnight with increasing cirrus, as upper
level ridge axis shifts eastward from the Grt Lks. At the
surface, a dying back door cold front is over the central
mountains at 03Z, with markedly lower dewpoints behind this
boundary across the eastern half of the state. Mostly clear
skies and drier air should result in the best radiational
cooling across the eastern counties, where min temps have been
adjusted downward slightly. Euro Ensemble MOS and latest HRRR
support this idea of slightly lower temps, with mins ranging
from 25-30F across the Middle Susq Valley/Poconos, to the mid
30s over the Laurel Highlands.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A weakening front and the associated shearing upper shortwave
will bring increasing high clouds to the area Tuesday, likely
resulting in max temps several degrees cooler than those of
Monday. A few showers may work into the northwest mountains
toward evening, ahead of the weakening shortwave over the Grt
Lks. Otherwise, confidence is high for another dry day across
the remainder of central Pa.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gradually milder temperatures will return for the extended
period as no genuine cold air push is in sight. High
temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal
with min temperatures mainly above freezing.
Upper ridge axis is forecast to be located east of the state
Tuesday night. The weak cold frontal boundary will produce a
brief period or two of showers for late Tuesday (Northwest) and
over the Central and Eastern parts of PA Tuesday night into the
mid morning hours of Wednesday.
Clouds associated with this weak frontal boundary will help to
suppress temps a bit (but they`ll still remain well above
The flow turns back to the SW by Wednesday causing temps to
The overall, large-scale pattern becomes more amplified late in
the week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts
into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Thursday and Friday
with warm front lifting through, and bringing increasing rain
chances heading into the weekend.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Predominately VFR into tonight under increasing high to mid
level clouds ahead of weakening frontal system approaching from
the Midwest. MVFR conditions are possible with light rain
showers late tonight into Wednesday morning across the NW 1/3
of the airspace.
Wed...A.M. sub-VFR/possible NW 1/3; otherwise VFR with light
rain showers in spots.
Thu...Sub-VFR possible with chance rain showers.
Fri...Sub-VFR possible with rain showers likely Friday night.
Sat...Strong cold FROPA with sub-VFR and possible thunderstorms.
Gusty post-frontal NW winds with snow showers NW 1/3 Saturday
-- End Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte