Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221153 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 753 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... It will be very comfortable for much of the upcoming week. The next chance for rain won`t be until Thursday or Friday when a rather weak cold front slides southeast across the state. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Showers are gone from earlier push of dry air. Just a few speckles on radar over LE and ne OH. The shra there seem to be connected somewhat to LSC (Lake St Clair). I find it fascinating/interesting to see some lake-induced/enhanced showers at this point in the year. Instability must have been high there at that point, and it has only gotten colder over the lake since then. 8H temps in the upper single digits over nw PA, and this makes about a 30+F difference in the lowest 5kft. Lake- induced CAAPEs are calculated by BUFKIT above 2000 Joules! Saw pictures of waterspouts on the lake shore from two different sources yesterday, and these numbers are in line with making other `spouts. KCLE has statements up to that effect for today as well. The latest near term guid still lingers a few showers in the NW and perhaps into the Laurels early this morning as the moisture and upslope flow combine to increase clouds there. The sky should clear up almost entirely before noon as the subsidence takes over and mixing clears things up. No fog right now, as the temps are chasing the dewpoints down the hole. Still, there may be a little around sunrise in the river valleys where water temps are running in the m60s-m70s. Max temps today will be cooler than recently at about 3-5F lower than yesterday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... Clear sky tonight with the giant high pressure system over the entire eastern CONUS. Temps will be dropping into the 40s in the north and mainly 50s in the rest of the area. Rural spots in the SE may be near 50F as well. Fog is almost a given, but the wind could stay up just a little all night which may hinder fog formation. Will keep going with the fog and low cloud cover in the valleys with the climatological peak of valley fog season nearing. The big high will be right overhead for Tuesday morning but could be off to the east just enough to bring in return flow and help temps go back up about 10F higher than Monday in the NW. SErn sections will stay very close to Monday temps, but will have a 25-30F diurnal swing. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Have adjusted the timing of the bell-curve of higher POPs a little nearer in time as most guidance now places the front over the area on Thursday/Night instead of Friday as it did 24 hours ago. Prev... Cooler, drier air will advect into the region bringing a long period of precipitation-free weather through most of next week. The next period of active weather will come as an upper level trough moves into the region Thursday night into Friday. A front with +1 to 2 STD/anomalous PWATS progress through Friday. That should correspond with a passing but possibly weakening/shearing cold front. Dry air under high pressure is expected for next weekend. The week will start off cooler due to the northwesterly flow but will gradually warm as the week continues with temperatures slightly above normal through the second half of the week. What will also make this week feel cooler is the lack of humidity as dewpoints will be in the 50s through most of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Any lower cigs/fog across Western Pa will mix out shortly after 14Z and there is a high confidence of VFR across the entire region for the rest of the day, as high pressure builds over the state. Outlook... Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog possible, esp KBFD/KIPT. Thu...Isold pm tsra impacts possible w mtns. Fri...AM low cigs possible w mtns.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... The KCCX radar was activated in order to monitor the active weather on Sunday. Radome painting is not yet complete. Therefore, the radar will likely be taken off line during the expected benign weather stretch today+ to allow the work to be completed. The work will likely be completed in a day or two. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Dangelo/Ceru AVIATION...Gartner EQUIPMENT...

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