Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280047 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 847 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY LASTING INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL WILL BE FAIR BUT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS IS CRESTING OVR CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO ALL BUT THE S TIER AS OF 00Z. HOWEVER...CIRRUS SHIELD ALREADY ENCROACHING ON WESTERN PA ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE MISS VALLEY. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUPPORT A DRY NIGHT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF SFC WAVE RIDING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE S TIER COUNTIES...WHERE SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ARND DAWN. SOME PATCHY DZ MAY DEVELOP EVEN EARLIER OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN SFC-850 RH VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT AFTER 06Z. MCLEAR SKIES...LGT WIND AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE L30S ACROSS THE N MTNS...WHILE M40S MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK WAVES WILL BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND PERIODS OF COLD RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF PA GIVEN THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL. BASED ON 18Z OPER AND EARLIER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...FELT COMPELLED TO RAISE POPS TO NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES. MDL BLENDED QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THU EVENING.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP. MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS I HAVE SEEN LATELY. INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SUB VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EVEN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER HARRISBURG...SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL NORTHERN AND MOST CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...IMPROVEMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY WITH CEILINGS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 3000` INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR. OUTLOOK... FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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