Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 210938 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 538 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EARLY AM WV LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS S ONTARIO. LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND PERHAPS SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY/VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA AS OF 0830Z. UPSTREAM SFC REPORTS INDICATING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAIN FROM THIS FEATURE OVR OHIO AND SUSPECT EVEN LESS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...WHERE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN VIRGA. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF PA LATER THIS MORNING...CAUSING DWINDLING AREA OF -SHRA TO PRESS EAST. LATEST 4KM NAM/HRRR INDICATE ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF LINGERING -SHRA BY NOON ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. A SECOND SHORTWAVE...DIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AM...WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PA BY THIS EVENING. INCREASING LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT -SHRA THIS EVENING. ALL NR TERM MDL INDICATE THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS EVENING...ALONG PLUME OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS. OVERCAST SKIES...COMBINED WITH AN ALREADY CHILLY AIR MASS OVR THE AREA...WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE MAY CLIMO...RANGING FROM 55-60F OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE EARLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE. SFC LOW PASSING OFF THE MID ATL COAST STRENGTHENS A BIT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN NW WINDS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD AVG IN THE L-M40S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE MAIN LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 2 WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A RE-ENFORCING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLD/WDLY SCT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MSTR KEPT POPS AOB 20 PCT. DAY 2 MAX TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SOME BUT STILL AVG BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT/A.M. SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BY SATURDAY MORNING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME FROST IN THE OUTLYING AREAS AROUND STATE COLLEGE. WITH A FAVORABLE PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM MODEL CONSENSUS...COLLABORATED WITH BUF/BGM ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NRN MTNS WITH FCST MINS IN THE 28-32F RANGE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST RISK IN THE HWO AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD FROST HEADLINES AS NEEDED. AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FROM 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WARMER RETURN FLOW SETTING UP INTO SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY. THIS WILL LKLY IMPACT PCPN RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE...WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RISK OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN INCREASINGLY HUMID/MUGGY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A FEW -SHRA TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDS LAST THRU DAWN. THE -SHRA SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...A MOISTENING SERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KJST/KAOO...AND POSSIBLY KUNV...DURING MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HRRR EVEN IMPLIES THE CHC OF IFR CIGS AT KJST THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...ODDS OF THIS STILL LESS THAN 50 PCT. IMPROVING FLYING CONDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW...DRAWING DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK... FRI-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSS IN SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.