Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 282345 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 745 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... 40 DEWPOINTS IN KCLE AND KDAY NOW...SO THAT MUST BE BEHIND THE FRONT. WHAT LIGHTNING WAS OCCURRING EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED TO JUST A STRAY POSITIVE BOLT OR TWO. PRECIP CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NWRN COS...BUT HAS NOT MADE TOO MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS YET. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE AS A LITTLE WAVE SEEMS TO BE FORMING BETWEEN KUCP AND KFKL. GUSTS ARE MUCH LOWER NOW...VS WHEN WE HAD FULL MIXING. GUSTS IN THE 20S-L30S STILL OCCURRING JUST A LITTLE IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS. RAINFALL IS NOTHING TO FRET OVER - GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO. THE LITTLE ENHANCEMENT/CONVECTION OVER PBZ/S NRN AREA COULD MAKE A LITTLE STRIPE OF 0.5IN AS IT SLIDES OVER THE NWRN MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET PAST BLUE MTN UNTIL AFETR SUNRISE ON WED. MOST/ALL OF THE LIGHTNING SHOULD BE OVER EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. LARGER WAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS ON TRACK TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN A BIT. BUT THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LANCASTER CO BY EARLY AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP SKIES MCLDY WED. OVER THE NW MTNS LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE FORMING...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVR THE STILL WARM LK ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM EARLY AM LOWS WED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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GUSTY WINDS HAVE WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 00Z. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME...MAINLY AT BFD WITH COLD FRONT. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT LEFT OUT OF THE BFD TAF FOR NOW. PERHAPS SOME FOG LATE AT LNS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE WED MORNING...ALONG WITH A BKN CIG...BUT VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK... THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST. FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS. SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR- MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN

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