Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191920 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 320 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The upper level trough has pushed a cold front through the region this afternoon. Cooler and drier weather is expected through Thursday. Another trough approaching the region for the weekend could pull some warm air into the region late Thursday into early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... The line of severe storms at 230 PM was across our southeastern counties and moving east. Good news it will all be to our east by 330 PM. We have had numerous reports of wind damage, power outages, and rotating clouds from York to Lebanon Counties this afternoon. Farther west the cooler air has taken hold. Used the HRRR to tweak temperatures, dew points and winds and modify the POPS. Highest POPS are now in our extreme southeast. Most areas will be mostly to partly cloudy. GOES-16 shows good breaks in clouds over western and soon central areas behind the front. In the southeast be mindful of severe weather threats for another hour or so. Should be a nice overnight. Cooler air will allow most to turn off the AC for a few days rest. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Noticeably cooler in central and eastern areas. Temperatures should run a bit below normal. Unstable aloft could triggers some showers, mainly in the mountains of western and northwestern PA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Not a lot of change from recent days. Still looks like a strong push of warm and humid air for later Thursday into Friday. Other than early Wed, the next chance of a few hours of dry weather will likely be Saturday, as the cold front drops just to the south of PA. Hard to push cold fronts much further south now, as we head into summer. EC and other models show a rather strong low for late June tracking across the Great Lakes on Sunday. Another round of showers and storms. Rather strong cold advection for next Monday. Will have to watch the Golf of Mexico to see if moisture will be pulled northward later in the week ahead of any of the fast moving lows tracking across the lakes. Overall just minor changes made to the extended package.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A strong front triggered showers and severe thunderstorms across our region today. If flying be mindful of strong and severe thunderstorms in southeastern PA. Mainly west of KMDT and KLNS now. Check radar if flying east of these locations. The front and the IFR/MVFR conditions will move east. We could have patch MVFR in valleys and areas where it rained today. But otherwise mainly VFR. Should be VFR on Tuesday with some scattered showers in the mountains from KJST to KBFD. .OUTLOOK... Tue...Sct SHRA...mainly NW. Wed...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Thu...Sct SHRA and storms...mainly N. Fri...Sct showers and thunderstorms. Sat...Mainly VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for PAZ065-066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Grumm/La Corte NEAR TERM...Grumm/La Corte SHORT TERM...Grumm/La Corte LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...La Corte/Martin/Head

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