Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 030219 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1019 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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1030 PM UPDATE... EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. 730 PM UPDATE... ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PREV... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS THIS SAME AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE... ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE STRATIFICATION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN STRONG EARLY JULY SUN. PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD. WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT WAY. AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN

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