Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 202212 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 612 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A large and persistent area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend. Low pressure is likely to track west of the state early next week with a trailing cold front and potent upper level disturbance pushing through Pennsylvania Tuesday or Tuesday night preceded and accompanied by periods of rain and perhaps a narrow band of gusty thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Nice fall afternoon outside, with low dewpoints. Current fcst good. Earlier discussion below. Aside from a few wisps of cirrus over the region, full sunshine is being enjoyed throughout central PA this afternoon. Clear skies will continue tonight as strong upper ridge expands northward and center of 1024 mb sfc high slides across central PA. Light wind will allow mins to drop into the 40s everywhere with a few upper 30s likely across northern and central valleys around sunrise. Patchy valley fog will be seen once again a few hours surrounding daybreak.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Little change in store for Saturday as anomalous upper ridge delivers yet another splendid autumn day. Abundant sunshine will allow temps to warm through the 70s most places. Southern areas could approach the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper ridge to start the period with very warm (for October) days and seasonably cool nights. Stand-alone shortwave over Gulf States Mon will be overtaken by a significant digging northern stream trough that will eventually take on a slightly negative tilt early next week as it moves from the upper midwest and Miss Valley to the Appalachian Mtns and Carolina Coast. Models have converged to indicate the center of the significant rainfall event occurring late Monday through Tuesday evening when widespread rainfall amounts of 1-1.5 inches is anticipated. As the cold front works slowly east across the Commonwealth Tuesday into Tuesday evening, Sfc-850 mb LIs go slightly negative acrs parts of Scent PA and the Susq Valley. In addition to the expansive shield of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall rates, the pattern appears favorable for a Narrow Cold Frontal Rainband - NCFRB (with brief gusty winds) to push through as well. Then we transition to a period of near to below normal temperatures for the second half of next week as flow shifts to the NW as result of upper trough swinging east across the area. Fair amount of clouds for the NW half of CWA midweek with scattered lighter showers also poss under the trough. Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble systems do indicate the thrust of the chilliest air will be directed west of PA/ And there are indications of rising heights/milder weather returning again for the entire eastern conus toward the end of the month. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure over Pennsylvania should ensure widespread VFR conditions and light wind through Saturday. Some isolated pockets of valley fog are possible between 08Z-13Z Saturday, but the odds of any impacts at the central Pa airfields are low. Outlook... Sun...Patchy AM valley fog otherwise VFR. Mon-Tue...VFR to MVFR/IFR. Showers likely; periods of heavy rain and gusty winds possible with strong FROPA. LLWS. Wed...Breezy. Sct showers. MVFR NW 1/2. Thu...No restrictions. && .CLIMATE... Month-to-date, October 2017 is the warmest October on record at Harrisburg and Williamsport. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Lambert NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Lambert/Martin SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Lambert LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DeVoir/Fitzgerald CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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