Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 261321 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 821 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLIPPER WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...AS SECONDARY COASTAL STORM TAKES SHAPE SOUTH OF NEW ENG. THE COASTAL STORM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NEW ENG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING AN OVERALL DIMINISHING OF RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE FORCING EDGES EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVR CENTRAL PA ALONG AXIS OF DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BTWN LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR NEW ENGLAND. LATEST 4KM NAM/HRRR/RAP ALL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS/ALLEGHENIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF DEEPENING TROF WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED SFC TROF AND PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR THE ALLEGHENY AND SC MTNS. ALL LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES COASTAL STORM WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON CENTRAL PA. MDL 7H FGEN FIELDS INDICATE ASSOC DEFORMATION BAND SNOW WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF OUR CWA. BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF SUPPORTS AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ALLEGHENY MTNS. DWINDLING MTNS SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY...AS NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN WAKE OF STORM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FAIR AND CHILLY WED EXPECTED WED...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE AREA. MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES A CHANCE OF SNOW THURS/THU NIGHT WITH NEXT IN SERIES OF CLIPPERS. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS THE SFC LOW NORTH OF PA...LIKELY RESULTING IN MINIMAL ACCUMS ACROSS OUR AREA. ECENS SHOWS A DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVR THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND...OFFERING NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... REDUCTIONS CONTINUE REGIONWIDE AS INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER CENTRAL PA /AND AS DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST/. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH VSBYS VARYING FROM 1-4SM AND CIGS OF MVFR-IFR SETTLING BACK TOWARD A MORE ROBUST IFR DECK. NE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...AND PICK UP A BIT TO 10-15 MPH IN THE LOWER SUSQ TONIGHT AS STORM DEEPENS TO THE EAST AND SYNOPTIC FLOW INCREASES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS IN NW FLOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH WIND WILL BE BREEZY...PRODUCING SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH. OUTLOOK... TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...GENERALLY VFR EAST. BREEZY N WIND. WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED. THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>026-033>036-045-058-059-064>066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ027- 028-041-046-049>053-056-057-063. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...RXR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.