Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 272240 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 640 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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CAP IS LOCALLY STUBBORN...BUT SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ALSO OVER THE LYCOMING VALLEY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY. MODEL FORECAST AND LAPS SOUNDINGS HAVE INDICATED UP TO 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE...BUT TO THIS POINT HAVE NOT SEEN STORMS OF THAT INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK...BUT PULSING CELLS MAY LOCALLY PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE FRONT AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL COS AROUND SUNSET AND MOVE OUT OF THE CWA HEADED SOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT NICELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS COULD GET INTO THE 40S IN THE NAN MTG. ALSO...DECOUPLING SHOULD OCCUR IN MOST PLACES. THUS...YE OLDEN RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED THERE. MINS WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE L60S IN THE SRN TIER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... COOL POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT MIGHT BE THE APPROACH OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK FROM THE N/NE AS A STRONG PORT MAX DROPS S ACROSS NY STATE. WILL KEEP POPS UP NEAR ISOLD NUMBERS IN THE NE...BUT NOT MENTION PRECIP QUITE YET. A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NE THOUGH. MAXES WILL BE ABOUT 8-10F BELOW WEDNESDAY/S LOFTY NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CANADA...AND TO A NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE BIGGEST MOISTURE FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO WARRANT INCREASING PROBABILITY/OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SPURRED ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIATION SO EXPECT SOME MODIFICATIONS AS TIME PROGRESSES. A GFS AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING THE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACHES THE AREA. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE JUST THROUGH KBFD AT 18Z. ONE BATCH OF TSRA OVER KAGC IS HEADED SOUTH OF KJST. ALL BUT KBFD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR TSRA IN THE VCTY...BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH/TS FOR NOW DUE TO SPARSE COVERAGE. THIS THREAT SHOULD END AROUND 23Z-00Z IN IPT/UNV BUT COULD LINGER UNTIL 03Z IN THE SRN TERMINALS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR. NORMAL VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE NRN VALLEYS AS THE TEMPS DROP OFF WELL BELOW THE RIVER WATER TEMPS. BUT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE WIND WHICH COULD IMPEDE FOG FORMATION. WILL PUT MVFR FOG IN MOST TAFS AND IFR FOG IN BFD FOR A FEW HRS LATE TONIGHT. THE NW WINDS PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE BUT SKIES AND VIS SHOULD BE VFR. A LOW-END VFR CLOUD DECK MAY DROP DOWN FROM WRN NY STATE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS ON THURS. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR. SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO

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