Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 140949 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 449 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TODAY...THEN OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SPAWN A LOW PRES SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN PA ON TUESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALOFT WITH MUCH WARMER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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09Z WCHILLS RUNNING FROM ARND 20BLW ACROSS THE N MTNS TO BTWN 5-10BLW IN THE SOUTH. DON/T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE TO THESE NUMBERS THRU 8AM...AS FALLING TEMPS SHOULD BE BALANCED BY DIMINISHING WIND. WCHILL ADVY/WARN REMAIN IN PLACE THRU 16Z. HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH FAIR AND CONTINUED COLD WX TODAY WITH LIGHT WIND. DESPITE PT-MSUNNY SKIES...TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO THE TEENS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS BITTER THAN SATURDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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DEVELOPING WAA BTWN DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A BIT OF LGT SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW PWAT AIR ASSOC WITH DEPARTING ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS TO A DUSTING. EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES OFF FAST THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT. SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA MON MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A STEADIER SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE DAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SOUTHERLY LL JET. GEFS/SREF PTYPE PROBS SUGGEST SOME MIXING MAY WORK INTO THE S TIER COUNTIES BY EVENING.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MDL SPREAD CONTINUES TO NARROW...WITH MOST RUNS TRACKING SFC LOW ACROSS EASTERN PA TUESDAY...SUPPORTING RAISING POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT LATE MONDAY-EARLY TUESDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA. BULK OF MDL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN EVENTUAL TURNOVER TO RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NW MTNS BY EARLY TUES AM. ENSEMBLE PLUMES AND WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORT A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOW ACCUM BEFORE CHANGEOVER. SFC HIGH PROGGED EAST OF NJ IS IN A POSITION UNFAVORABLE TO HOLD LL COLD AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION PERIOD OF FZRA STILL APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL PA MON EVENING. WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MARGINAL WARNING CRITERIA FOR ICE ACCRETION OVR THE SC MTNS. HOWEVER...SREF/GEFS PLUMES INDICATE SUCH ICE AMTS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. MAIN EVENT DOESN/T UNFOLD UNTIL LATE MONDAY...SO STILL TIME TO HONE FCST WITH BENEFIT OF LATER GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...GIVEN RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT POTENTIAL. LATEST MDL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY TUES. WPC ALSO HAS HIGHLIGHTED SE PA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK...AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AND A PSBL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST OF PA.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ARCTIC AIR OVER CENTRAL PA AS W/NW FLOW CONTINUES. SPEEDS/GUSTS GRADUALLY COMING DOWN OVER LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GUSTINESS COMING TO AN END IN MAJORITY OF LOCALES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER 1035MB HIGH AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND KBFD-KJST...LAYER WILL BECOME SO DRY THAT EVEN LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP STRATOCU AROUND BY SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD VFR FOR SUNDAY /WITH LIGHTER WINDS/...BUT PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CIG RESTRICTIONS SLIDE IN FROM THE SW AGAIN STARTING SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SNOW AND ASSORTED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT FLYING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED MAINLY VFR. MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP WITH SNOW DEVELOPING. MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW IN THE SE. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS SET IN. LLWS POSS SE. WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESP OVER THE WEST. THU...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006- 037-041-042. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR

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