Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290648 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 248 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL MTS. BREAKS IN THE DECK ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE 11-3.9MICRON IMAGES. EXPECT THE BEST CLEARING OVER THE SE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ALSO IN THE SW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING SEEN IN THE DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING UPSTREAM IN WRN PA. IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. BEST SHORTWAVE OF THE SERIES IS TIMED IN FOR WED DURING THE DAY AND SPC SEE TEXT IN NEW DAY TWO IS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING SMALL HAIL FROM THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED AND VERY SLIM CHC OF 1 INCH HAIL FROM A STRONGER CELL OR TWO. THE 8H TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN NOW AND WED AFTN/EVE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND BETTER COVERAGE THAN WHAT SHOULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY/TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT SHOULD GET SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS GONE NOW...BUT STILL SOME CLOUDS. EXPECT LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY THAN ON MONDAY. 06Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS ARND 5KFT. OUTLOOK... WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS. FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN

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