Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020242 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1042 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH TOMORROW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... CLEAR SKIES COVERED MOST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...THOUGH A WEAK SPOKE OF VORTICITY WAS WRAPPING SWWD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW /ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST/ LEADING TO A BAND OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES /THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT/ WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS FOR AN EVENING IN EARLY EARLY OCTOBER WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF 1/4-1/2SM FOG ONCE AGAIN. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z THU. EVEN THOUGH WE EXPECT THE CLEARING TO LAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTED NWWD UNDER THE INVERSION OF THE INCOMING MID AND UPPER-RIDGE WILL BE LIFTED OROGRAPHICALLY AND LIKELY CREATE A STRATUS DECK AND/OR FOG. WILL MENTION THE FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE IN THE WX GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... LITTLE MIXING TO BE HAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...SO THE FOG/STRATUS WHICH DOES FORM COULD TAKE MORE THAN JUST A FEW HOURS TO BURN OFF. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD INSTEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OF WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD TURN OUT MUCH SUNNIER...AND ALMOST NO CHC FOR A SHOWER. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT THE CWA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A FEW SHOWERS THAT SLID IN FROM THE EAST HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AT 03Z...WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE LINGERING AROUND KLNS. N-S ORIENTED CLOUD DECK AT 3000-4000 FT /ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER SHOWERS/ WILL ERODE OVER THE EAST. REMAINING CWA MAINLY CLEAR THIS MID-EVENING. BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SLIDE MOISTURE UP INTO THE CENTRAL MTS ON LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT S/ERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...WILL BRING ANOTHER STRATUS DECK INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR ALMOST ALL SITES. PERHAPS ONLY BFD WILL REMAIN MCLR OVERNIGHT. BUT FOG IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT/THU MORNING...WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBY IMPACTING WEST AND CENTRAL TERMINALS. THE LIGHT E/SE WIND DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR QUICK CLEARING/DISSIPATION OF THE FOG AND ANY MORNING STRATUS AFTER SUNRISE. BUT BY LATE MORNING CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE TO VFR. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BE A SRLY WIND WHICH COULD MAKE LLWS ON FRIDAY....BUT GUSTS WILL BE MORE-LIKELY AS MIXING BRINGS THOSE STRONG 30-35KT WINDS DOWN. THUNDER IS EXPECTED LATE FRI AND THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER SAT AM IN THE EAST. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS OVER N/WRN AREAS. SUN-MON...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...GARTNER AVIATION...RXR

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