Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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260 FXUS61 KCTP 241114 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 614 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A storm off NJ will lift to the northeast today. High pressure and unseasonably mild conditions will briefly return for Wednesday before a cold front moves through Wednesday night and early Thursday. Lake effect snow will then begin and last into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Radar loop giving indications that precip (mainly snow) is becoming lighter. The plume of highest moisture continues to slide to the north ever so slowly. It is still going to be pointed into the northeastern mountains through the morning hours, though. The snow totals up there are already >3" and a few more hours of snowfall should put them close to or over 6". Lastest hi-res guidance congeals things into a couple of generally N-S bands of light snow over wrn and central PA shortly. I think the radar already hints at this and will follow closely. Precip rates will be much lighter than overnight, however, and current expiration time of 12z for the WW advy should be fine. While some light snow /rain-snow mix in lower elevs/ is expected into the late morning, there should not be significant accumulations to warrant extending the advy any farther in time. As the snow tapers off, the temps should rise, so any lingering precip late in the morning or even mid-day could turn back to rain in the lower elevs. Temps won`t rise much. Not much sun to be seen. Wind backs more to the west and does increase over the west and central cos. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Upslope flow from the west and cloud temps may create a drizzly/dreary situation tonight in the western mountains. But, the west wind should make the downslope magic happen over the SE - drying things out and keeping it mild through the night. Temps won`t dip into the 20s in most places. But, a tricky part to the forecast is where there could be drizzle, there also may be temps AOB freezing. Will keep this out of the grids for now, but mention some dz possible in the Laurels/west. If the wind slackens at all, it could get pretty foggy. But, there should be enough wind to just make the air be mixed enough to keep the fog horn in the cartoons. High pressure does crest over the area Wed AM, and 8H temps should rise to +4 to +8C across the CWA. Maxes with the downslope, higher mixing and no snow cover in the SE could be near 50F, but the snowier places will strain to get above 40F. Clouds will thicken and lower late in the day over the west. But, will keep POPs out of most of the area for the daylight hours. Only the W (esp NW) will have a few sprinkles fall from mid clouds late in the day as a system moves in quickly from the west. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A well-advertised pattern change remains on track from the second half of the week into the weekend, with high confidence in a long wave trough carving out over the Eastern U.S. This will result in a prolonged period of seasonably cold temperatures and lake effect/high-terrain snow showers during the remainder of the period. Several inches of snow is probable in the typical locations like the Lake Erie Snowbelt. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Wide range of conditions expected today. Still some bands of] snow across northern and western areas. Winds will be on the gusty side today as well. Conditions should slowly improve later today, as the storm pulls away from the area. Outlook... Wed...Low cigs/rain possible western 1/2. Breezy late. Thu-Fri...MVFR/IFR in snow showers west. MVFR to VFR east. Sat...MVFR/IFR in snow showers west. MVFR to VFR east.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for PAZ005- 010>012-017>019-024>026-033-045-046. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ006- 037-041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin

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