Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 231518 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1118 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS THE WEATHER PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW FROM CENTRAL PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME WEAKENING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT. NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS. CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB. DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW. LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE SLOWEST. THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... THU...VFR. NO SIG WX. FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON /WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS/. SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE FIRE WEATHER...

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