Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200650 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 250 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and drier air will settle in for the weekend. Low pressure will track west of Pennsylvania early next week, with the trailing cold front coming through the region Sunday night or Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Sfc cold front is strung out along the Mason/Dixon line early today. Shallow cold air will be seeping swwd into the region through the day today while deeper moisture will linger several KFT above ground level. Weak upper short wave riding east across the region through the mid morning hours will interact with fairly deep moisture across practically all of central PA to produce areas of showers. Some of the showers will be briefly heavy. Total rainfall this morning will range from just a few hundreths along the northern and southern tier, to a little over tenth of an inch across portions of the Central and Western mtns. Last several runs of the HRRR appear to be depicting the areal coverage and progression of the showers quite well, so gridded POPs and QPF were weighted heavily toward this short term/hi res guidance. Lows will range from the mid-upr 40s to mid-upr 50s north to south with lower dewpoints making for more comfortable sleeping conditions than the last couple of nights.
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&& .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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After areas of showers exit the eastern part of our CWA by late this morning, the rest of today is expected to be mainly cloudy but dry. Areas of morning stratus will develop and be topped by a more extensive area of stratocu (that will be at least a few KFT thick. The stratocu will remain intact across most areas through the afternoon hours. There is just a slight chc for a few showers working into the far western zones before the sun goes down. Highs this afternoon will only reach the Lower 60s across the north, and upper 60s to near 70F in the southern valleys. Moist but relatively shallow southeasterly flow will be topped by some drier air aloft flowing in from the west to create a dual layer of clouds tonight (bkn-ovc stratocu topped by altocu) but little or no precip as a ridge of high pressure aloft crests over the state. High pressure over New England will slowly retreat off the East Coast on Sunday. The chance for showers will begin to increase from west to east through the day, ahead of a cold front approaching from the Midwest. Some thunder is possible by Sunday aftn across the west.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The cold front should cross central Pennsylvania Sunday night into early Monday, accompanied by scattered showers and possibly some thunder. A weak area of high pressure will build in behind the front, providing a pleasant Tuesday. It looks like things may turn unsettled again during the middle to later part of next week, as upper-level low pressure drops into the Great Lakes and surface low pressure develops over the Mid-Atlantic region. This could bring a round of cooler, wet weather to the region Wed into Thurs. The upper-low should begin to lift out by Friday, allowing conditions to slowly improve.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A shallow frontal boundary is trying to sag through central PA. On radar there are some weak showers in central PA near the boundary. Most areas will be VFR but patch MVFR is possible. Close to the boundary there could be some lower CIGS mainly in the 1500 to 3000ft range at times Saturday. Warm air slowly will return from the west Saturday into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will increase the rain threat and lower CIG/VIS overnight Saturday into Sunday. .OUTLOOK... Sun...Showers and thunderstorms likely west advancing east by late afternoon and evening. Mon...Becoming VFR with showers ending from west to east. Tue...VFR. Wed...Widespread restrictions developing with showers and thunderstorms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Lambert SHORT TERM...La Corte/Lambert LONG TERM...Evanego AVIATION...La Corte

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