Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 032125 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 525 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS TRIED TO POP UP IN THE SC MTNS RECENTLY BUT HAVE DIED. THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF SPEED SHEAR AND MILD TEMPS ALOFT. BUT I AM GOING TO BLAME THE SHORT LIFE SPAN ON DRYING OCCURRING AS THE CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE REGION. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO MAKE THE CU GROW - BUT THIN CAPE NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM GROWING. HOWEVER...MESO MDLS DO CONTINUE TO PLACE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SC MTNS AND EVEN INTO THE SUSQ VLY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS A SMALL BIT BUT LEFT THEM IN PLACE AND IN CURRENT TIME SPAN. ONE LARGER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOME QPF TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH THEMSELVES OVER MOST/ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DZ IS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN KINDA MILD FOR EARLY MAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHILE VFR WITH OCNL MVFR IS THE RULE OVER THE WEST AND NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR FROM LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED RAIN/DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE

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