Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191518 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1118 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the mid afternoon and early evening across the northwest Alleghenies and the central ridge and valley region before dissipating tonight. Fair weather is expected Sunday and Monday, with temperatures turning warmer and more humid into early next week. Thunderstorms are probable on Tuesday followed by a refreshingly cooler and dry second half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Fog has dissipated over central PA. GOES-16 satellite trends show cumulus developing to the east of weakening early morning convection near the PA/OH border. There is a strong signal in the hires convective-allowing models (CAMs) for scattered thunderstorms to develop across the northwest Alleghenies into the central ridge and valley region this afternoon into the early evening - in advance of a seasonably strong shortwave and diffuse surface front. Modest instability and deep layer shear combined with relatively cool mid level temperatures will support risk for isolated strong to severe storms with locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail. SPC maintained marginal risk outlook for today with the 13z update. The most likely timing for storms based on the latest CAMs is toward later in the afternoon/early evening timeframe ~ 4 to 8pm. Expect convection to diminish in intensity/coverage as it pushes into east-central PA/Susquehanna Valley region during the late evening. Dry wx expected after midnight as high pressure builds over the area. Models are showing low stratus potential over the Alleghenies with weak upslope flow and low level moisture trapped under subsidence inversion. Patchy fog is also likely in the usual spots across the central valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The quick exit off to the east of the sharp shortwave will lead to a bright day Sunday with a light breeze and comfortable humidity. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The medium range models are all in good agreement on bringing a renewed surge of heat and humidity into the area to start the new work week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be well up into the 80s with some southern locations possibly touching 90 Tuesday. There`s decent agreement in having a vigorous cold front pass through the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. That will be the best chance for organized precipitation coming up next week with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely starting late Tuesday, lasting into the overnight before tapering off as scattered showers Wednesday. The remainder of the week into the weekend looks to be cool and mainly dry as a sprawling high moves slowly eastward out of southern Canada. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Restrictions this morning have improved to VFR which will prevail into the afternoon. Local thunderstorm impacts are possible mainly between 20-24Z. Clearing skies fcst tonight with models suggesting potential for IFR stratus/fog mainly over the western 1/2 of the airspace. Early morning restrictions will improve to VFR by 15Z. .OUTLOOK... Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR, but restrictions in morning fog. Tue...Thunderstorm impacts likely. Wed...Improving conditions.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...La Corte/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...La Corte/Steinbugl LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Martin/Steinbugl

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