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793
FXUS61 KCTP 291125
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
725 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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* Widespread fog over much of central PA this morning will give
  way to sunshine for the rest of the day.
* Today will be the best day of the final weekend of June with
  lower humidity and mostly rain-free/dry conditions (slim
  shower/storm chances in southern PA).
* Stormy pattern resumes early week with renewed risk of strong
  to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Areas of fog remain in place across a good chunk of central PA
this morning, but haven`t seen widespread visibility
restrictions to 1/4 mile or less locally. Drier air working
into the northern tier, evidenced by dewpoints in the mid-upper
50s, and more concentrated cloud cover farther south may have
been the limiting factors for more widespread dense fog.

Surface high pressure building into central PA will provide a
mostly dry second half of the weekend. Still a slim chance of a
shower/storm in southern PA as the core of the high pressure
system will be positioned farther north with lingering moisture
along the Maryland border. Shortwave energy traversing PA would
be the forcing mechanism for any storms later today along the
Mason-Dixon line, although updraft/downdraft organization is
expected to be poor given deep layer shear on the order of 20
knots. Increasing sunshine through the day should help
temperatures warm into the low-mid 80s north and mid-upper 80s
in south central PA this afternoon.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The widespread stormy and unsettled pattern resumes Monday with
a shortwave trough and subsequent falling heights progressing
through the Great Lakes, putting the Commonwealth back in the
warm sector as deeper moisture is pulled north. Partly cloudy
skies to begin the day on Monday will allow for plenty of
destabilization. This combined with the above mentioned moisture
return and increasing deep layer shear of around 25-30 knots
will provide the ingredients for another round of strong storms
Monday afternoon/evening. Strong outflow winds and heavy
rainfall look to be the primary threats.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper-level ridging early in the week will be replaced by
upper-level troughiness across the northeastern United States
for the second half of the week. By next weekend, the upper
level pattern will become more zonal.

As for sensible weather...a cold front will cross the area on
Tuesday, accompanied by a good chc of SHRA/TSRA. Behind this
front, a (slightly) cooler and drier airmass will return for
the remainder of the work week.

There could be a few aftn SHRA/TSRA on Thursday in response to a
weak shortwave trough. Otherwise, much of the second half of the
week (Wed-Fri) should be rain-free.

As sfc high pressure slides off the East Coast and winds become
southerly, warmer temperatures and increasing humidity will
return for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Got to see the sun come up, one of the few mornings where
clouds and showers have been more limited. Still there
is isolated returns on the radar the last few hours.

Some fog at times since Midnight, but more limited than
in the last few mornings.

Overall expect most of the day to be dry with VFR conditions.

More fog expected later tonight.

Later Monday into Tuesday, more showers and storms.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...SHRA/TSRA expected, with periods of fog and low
clouds overnight.

Wed...AM fog, then VFR.

Thu...Primarily VFR, although a few aftn SHRA/TSRA are
possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guseman/Bowen
NEAR TERM...Guseman/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Guseman/Bowen
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Evanego
AVIATION...Martin