Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241418 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1018 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mostly sunny skies and warm today. Most locations will range through the 70s with much of eastern and southeastern areas toping the 80 degree mark lat this afternoon. No models show any rain today. The 11Z HRRR showed an isolated shower or two in extreme southeastern areas but not worth mentioning and low probability event. But cannot completely rule out a stray shower over Schuylkill or Lancaster County.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Should be a beautiful evening. Mostly clear good time to spin around outside. There could be some patch fog in some valleys...better chance in eastern/southeastern areas. Still quite comfortable as humidity will still be on the low side. Enjoy that while it lasts. Wednesday will be a pleasant and dry summer day. The first of many to come over the next 3-7 days. Most areas will top 80F in the afternoon. It will also be the last of the relatively dry days as moisture keeps coming in and overnight Wednesday into Thursday will be a bit more stickier as the humidity begins to rise.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity. By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft. Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow. The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to be above normal through the end of the month.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main change to the 12Z TAF package is VCSH for the LNS and MDT TAF sites. Earlier discussion below. Still a breeze in spots. No fog expected now that we have some breeze. Overall a nice spring day with VFR conditions. Perhaps a shower across the far east. OUTLOOK... Wed...No sig wx expected. Thu-Sat...Isold pm tsra impacts possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Martin

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