Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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327 FXUS61 KCTP 180127 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 827 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region through Thursday, bringing fair skies but cold temperatures. Temperatures will moderate to near normal Friday, then climb above normal over the upcoming weekend with mainly dry weather continuing. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... High pressure and associated low PWAT air mass is building into central Pa late today, resulting in mostly sunny skies over much of the region. However, shallow layer of moisture beneath subsidence inversion, combined with upslope flow, is yielding persistent stratocu across the Alleghenies. A close examination of the GOES16 visible loop shows what appears to be a plume of light snow downwind the Seward Power Plant (Westmoreland Co) into southwest Cambria Co. Visibilities have been running between 2-3SM at KJST and can`t rule out a fresh dusting over southwest Cambria county early this evening from this plume. Models soundings show inversion heights falling further overnight, as ridge axis builds over the state. Thus expect a diminishing amount of stratocu across the western mountains and clear skies elsewhere. A westerly breeze will keep us from optimal radiational cooling, but we should still see lows range from the single digits over the northwest half of the forecast area to the low teens over the southeast counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Mostly sunny skies will occur Thursday with temperatures rebounding to near or slightly below normal. Westerly flow will freshen and gust between 20-25 mph at times. Gust as high as 30 to 35 mph will be possible across central and western areas in the afternoon as high pressure builds to our south && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure moving off the southeast coast late in the week will bring mild and dry weather to the area late in the week. A deep low will swing a cold front across the area late Monday and early Tuesday next week. Did slow the front down some, based on new models. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... There continues to be some lingering MVFR over my western higher elevation terminals with even some very light snow causing visibilities under 2 miles at JST. Drier air will limit the extent of the low clouds moving out of the mountains, but these high elevation sites may be stubborn to improve despite an overall fair weather pattern. It will be breezy with gusts in the 10-20 mph range. Outlook... Thu...Mainly VFR. Breezy. Fri-Sun...Mainly VFR. Mon...Reduced conditions with rain showers associated with an approaching cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... The threat of ice jamming is diminishing. Dry and colder weather into mid week will form additional ice as stream flows and open channels decrease. Another warm up is expected by the end of the week into the weekend with rain to accompany a frontal system early next week. Dewpoints not fcst to be as high as last Friday evening, so expecting less rain and runoff. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...La Corte/Gartner HYDROLOGY...

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