-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 180824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
424 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT ACROSS UPSTATE
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SINKING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
OSCILLATING OVER PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL EXPECT A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MID/HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. FILLING UPPER
LOW SLIDING WELL TO OUR SOUTH BUT SLOWING AS IT DOES SO. WEAK SFC
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST.
LIGHT EAST WIND WILL VEER A BIT AND ALLOW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. SO FAR...NO SIGN OF ANY CLOUDS LESS THAN 6KFT OFF TO OUR
S/E. PREVIOUS FCSTS OF AN INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS IS RIGHT
ON...FINDING SUPPORT IN ALL MODELS IN THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. BUT THE
SCHEDULE MAY NEED TO BE HURRIED UP A FEW HOURS IF CURRENT TIMING
FROM MESO MDLS IS RIGHT. THIS THICKENING/LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A DETRIMENTAL EFFECT ON THE TEMPS IN THE SRN MTS AS THE
LOWER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE/DEVELOP THERE FIRST LATER TODAY. CURRENT
TEMPS M50S-L60S IN THAT AREA...AND IT WILL BE TOUGH TO ADD MUCH
MORE THAN 10-12F ONTO THOSE NUMBERS TODAY. HAVE KEPT MAX TEMP AT
70 OR JUST BELOW FOR PLACES S OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL MENTION JUST
A SPRINKLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE SE AND NW...BUT THEN DRY
UNTIL THIS AFTN. SUN STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NWRN MTS AND
ELEVATIONS/HEATING WILL MAKE DIURNAL CU AND PERHAPS LOWER
STABILITY ENOUGH TO POP A SHOWER OR TWO. CURRENT 30 DEWPOINTS WILL
BE THE KNOCK ON THAT POSSIBILITY. 20-30 POPS WILL HOLD THERE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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SEEMS LIKE A NO-BRAINER TO FCST THICK LOWER CLOUDS TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT A 100 POP SEEMS OVER
DONE. WILL GO WITH 50-60 POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND CENTRAL
MTS. THE NW WILL STAY THE DRIEST AND SEE THE LEAST CLOUD COVERAGE.
SFC/LLVL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
PERSISTENCE FCST SHOULD BE SOLID. BUT WILL TAPER POPS A BIT EACH
PD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF THE PATCHY RAIN/SHOWERS.
STILL EXPECTING THAT THE BULK OF ANY DECENT RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM
PD WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE PESKY STATIONARY FRONT.
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE.

SOME DRYING IS PROGGED SUN NIGHT OR MONDAY AND COULD LEAD TO LOWER
STABILITY MONDAY - AS THE /WARM/ FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA. THUS...THE CHC OF THUNDER MAKES IT INTO THE FCST
THEN.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LESS CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS THE WINDS SHIFT
MORE TO THE SW...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WARMER TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TUE INTO WED.

HPC HAS FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON WED...NOT ALL THAT CLEAR CUT.
FOR WED...DID UP POPS SOME...BUT LEFT TEMPS UP.

COMPLEX SITUATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A LOT OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THE LAST
FEW DAYS.

FOR NOW...DID NOT RUSH CLEARING TOO MUCH BEFORE NEXT FRIDAY.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THU NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...AND LOW TRIES TO CLOSE OFF. GUSTY
NE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS BY
FRIDAY...AS THE SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR WILL BE CENTRAL
CANADA...AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER THIS WEEK. A LOT DIFFERENT
THAN LAST YEAR...WHEN WE HAD HOT TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME
STRONG STORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18/06Z...
VFR FLYING WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT-BKN ALTO CU BASES AROUND 10KFT
AGL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE THIS AFTN AND DIRECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST/MARITIME AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BY TUESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT IN LCL FLYING CONDS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...MVFR-IFR CIGS.
TUE- WED...VFR-MVFR WITH SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL