-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 041212
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
712 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE STATE TODAY PRODUCING AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA STARTING
THURSDAY...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO
COLDER WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST...BUT NOT BEFORE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG MANAGED TO FORM. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...AND MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BLACK ICE AS TEMPS HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY SO HAVE TAKEN OUT THE SMALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS WE HAD FOR NORTHERN AREAS TODAY. I WOULDN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER UP NORTH...BUT THINK THE CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO AVOID MENTION.

IT SHOULD BE A VERY MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING SOME 5-10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THE DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT WE GET. AFTER A VERY
MILD DAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP MUCH. LOWS IN THE 40S
WILL BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANCE OF RAIN CLIMBS THURSDAY AND SHOULD PEAK ON FRIDAY.

BUT...ENSEMBLES SHOW COLD AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SO RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN NORTHWEST PA AND THE RAIN/SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION BOUNDARY
SHOULD SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WAS
MODEST WITH THE SNOW IN THE GRIDS...BUT SREF AND GEFS IMPLY 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW THIRD OR SO OF PA BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY.

MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES QPF SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AM.

DROPPED POPS AFTER 00Z SATURDAY RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO -10 PERHAPS -12C SATURDAY WITH NW WINDS
IMPLYING SOME SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS PRONE TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS.


PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY....

WAS THINKING YESTERDAY THAT THE LATER PART OF SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE MAINLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...PERHAPS
SOME SLEET MIXED IN.

HOWEVER...LEFT A MIX IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BASED ON EC AND
OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING WESTERN LOW PULLING IN A LOT OF WARMER
AIR...BEFORE ANY COASTAL TAKES OVER LATER MONDAY INTO TUE. NOT
REALLY SEEING MUCH FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUE...BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE...BUT DID GO LOW POPS FURTHER EAST...AS EC SHOWS WEAK
WAVES MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE STATE TODAY PRODUCING AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

CONDITIONS QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...BUT
BIGGEST IMPACTS AT 12Z ARE IN AREA OF DENSE FOG EXTENDING FROM
KAOO-KUNV-KIPT WITH VSBYS 1/4SM. WITH SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING...ICING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH MID MORNING. LIGHTER
MVFR FOG ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL PA. THE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN
OFF...BUT EVENTUALLY BY LATE MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
GENERALLY VFR. THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER.

AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT... BY LATE AFTERNOON LOWER CIGS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AND
SPREAD ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA AFTER 00Z - WITH A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...CIGS WILL RECOVER TO MVFR-VFR ACROSS THE
SOUTH /SOUTH OF I-80/...WITH IFR CIGS HANGING ON ACROSS THE
NORTH. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...DUE TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN RAIN. SOME IMPROVEMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI...MVFR IN RAIN SE. IFR IN SNOW/WINTRY MIX NW.

SAT...NO SIG WX.

SUN...REDUCTIONS DEVELOPING FROM MVFR TO IFR. SNOW THEN WINTRY MIX
LIKELY SPREADING S TO N SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-
010>012-018-019-025>028-034-035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR