Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241851 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 151 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM OVER WESTERN OHIO AROUND MID DAY WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LESS POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LARGE-DISORGANIZED SHIELD OF RAIN EXTENDING ALL WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE MAIN THRUST REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE EVENING BEING FROM CENTRAL PA EASTWARD...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF A SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER MY WESTERN ZONES. NOT MUCH REASON TO EXPECT OTHER THAN A CONTINUATION OF A DREARY CHRISTMAS EVE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING MY WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN ABOUT 6 AND 9 PM...AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO SPEED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO BE EXITING MY FAR EASTERN ZONES BY THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MARGINALLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD LEAD TO A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM AS IT RACES THROUGH. EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF SOME SORT OF NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND-SQUALL LINE FEATURE IS BEING DOWNPLAYED IN THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT BEING TRANSFERRED DOWN IN THE CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL STAY STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION THIS EVENING HELPING MIX UP THE COOL AIR DAMMED BOUNDARY LAYER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING A TRANSITION INTO A PRETTY TYPICAL POST FRONTAL COOL SEASON PATTERN...WITH CLOUDS AND BLUSTERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS AS HIGH AS 35-45 MPH...WITH THE REST OF US MAINLY EXPERIENCING WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. THE USUAL SCATTERED MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE FEATURED CONDITIONS...WITH THE CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY REGION SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN A PASSING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER. THE POST FRONTAL AIR IS NOT REALLY VERY COLD SO EVEN WHERE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW...TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON THE INSIGNIFICANT SIDE. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AFTER THE INITIAL DROP OF 10F OR SO IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE CFROPA VERY EARLY ON.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER DEVELOPING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... WITH SW FLOW. DID UP TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT...GIVEN RISING HEIGHTS. CUT BACK PCPN FOR LATE FRIDAY. 12Z EC RUN HAS SYSTEM FURTHER NW NOW...BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AGAIN WITH SPLIT FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE FOR A SOUTHERN WAVE TO BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA AT TIMES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANYTHING WOULD BE FAST MOVING. PERHAPS A CHANGE LATER NEXT WEEK...AS CROSS POLAR FLOW SETS UP. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. INCLUDED LLWS FOR ALL TAF SITES AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE SE. WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS WILL HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE TO THE 3000-5000` RANGE BY LATE TONIGHT OR FAIRLY EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. OUTLOOK... FRI...FAIR AND MOSTLY VFR. SAT...VFR. SUN...MVFR TO IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MON...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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