Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260935 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 535 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN PA ON MONDAY. SEASONABLY WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALL NIGHT JUST NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. PERSISTENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INVOF 850 MB LLJ IS MAINTAINING PRE DAWN SHRA/TSRA EAST OF THE FINGERLAKES REGION IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 850 MB JET MAX. FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE LIMITED EARLY TODAY ACROSS MY AREA...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY AND PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. HRRR COVERAGE FAVORS AREAS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS BEING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SINCE LAST TUESDAY...COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INITIAL H5 RIDGING. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY... RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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UPPER TROF FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS FLATTENS 5H RIDGE AXIS OVER PA BY 00Z MON. MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE PLACE AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE 22Z...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. H5 TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH H5 RIDGING RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WEST. THUS POPS WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST IN VICINITY OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...DECREASING LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUN MAXES. NORTHWEST HALF OF PA WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS SOUPY WITH TD VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN U.S. DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY STILL POP UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. NEXT CHC FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. INTERESTING FEATURE NOW BEING STRONGLY HINTED AT FOR END OF FORECAST PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO BROAD TROUGH. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF FOLLOWING WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED/THU WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD KEEP BFD AND JST FROM DECOUPLING AND FROM TEMPERATURES DROPPING LOW ENOUGH FOR DENSE PATCHY FOG/MIST TO FORM. HOWEVER AOO...UNV AND LNS ARE THE BEST CANDIDATES FOR PATCHY FOG/MIST. ANY OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z. THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR HAS IT PRESSING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 16Z TO 18Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. OUTLOOK... MON-WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED PM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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