Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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025 FXUS61 KCTP 042331 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 731 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO INDICATE BROKEN LINE OF LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE ENDLESS MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ENTERING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL 00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN- MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A BROKEN BAND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN NORTH TO WELLSBORO. LOCALLY IFR UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS. MORE EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS...MVFR...OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY CLOSEST TO THE ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST. MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE

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