Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 270439 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1139 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM CENTRAL PA. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE WEST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH THE STORM OFF THE COAST HAS ENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... MAIN CHANGE AT 10 PM WAS TO BRING MIN TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES...GIVEN CLD COVER. BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA NOW. LAST OF THE TWO AREAS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW OUT OF THE AREA. WHILE SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT SOME LOCATIONS SAW AMTS UP TO 14 INCHES SO FAR. UPPER STRASBURG IN FRANKLIN CO. HAD 14 INCHES. KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE. && .SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
27/03Z UPDATE...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM PREVIOUS FCST THEREFORE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO 00Z SCHEDULED TAFS. VLIFR CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT JST WITH VIS BLW AIRFIELD MINS AT TIMES WITH SOME -FZDZ POSSIBLE. 27/00Z...MVFR-VFR CONDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA ZNY SECTOR. TROUBLE SPOT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW MSTR AND WEAK FLOW ARE PRODUCING LOW CIGS IN THE IFR TO VLIFR RANGE. WEAK UPSLOPE NW COMPONENT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CIGS WITH JST AT 1/4SM WITH FZFG. FEEL A PERSISTENCE FCST MAY WORK BEST HERE WITH CONTINUED WEAK FLOW AND UPSTREAM OBS NOT FAVORING IMPROVEMENT. SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE FCST TO DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY NGT OVER THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED CONDS ARE LKLY TO PERSIST. OUTLOOK... THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS CNTRL/EAST. FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL. MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR NEAR TERM...MARTIN/RXR SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.