Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270843 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 443 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER MY SERN ZONES. THE BACK EDGE EXTENDS FROM SRN BEDFORD COUNTY TO JUST SOUTH OF WILLIAMSPORT. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA WET THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE BEFORE ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO SETTLE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. I DID LEAN CLOSER TO NEAR TERM ENSEMBLE POPS THAT HOLD ONTO SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SE EARLY TODAY SO I MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC THERE TO START THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL END UP DRY. OVER MY WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES...ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS ALREADY MOVED IN TO MAKE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW HELPS FORCE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. FURTHER EAST RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE COLD AIR IS SCARCE SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLD PATTERN YESTERDAY...TODAY`S HIGHS WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL MAXING OUT NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE SE. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MY USUAL WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. A BLEND OF MODEL POPS SHOWS VERY SMALL CHANCES EVEN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES BUT ANY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE RIDGES OF THE WEST AND NORTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
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THE COLDEST 850 AIR WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 40 NW TO SE. POSSIBLY-HOPEFULLY THE COLDEST DAY WE SEE UNTIL NEXT FALL.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL YIELD TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TEMPORARILY RETURN UPPER HEIGHTS TO BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE GEFS AND NAEFSBC HINT THAT AS WE ENTER THE FIRST DAYS OF APRIL...THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WHICH HAS PLAGUED US WITH A NEVER ENDING SUPPLY OF COLD AIR SINCE FEBRUARY...WILL FINALLY YIELD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND LONG ANTICIPATED MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE ENSEMBLE PACKAGES DO NOT EXACTLY GO OVERBOARD WITH PROJECTIONS OF EASTERN WARMTH HOWEVER AS THEY MAINTAIN A LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY...BUT THE FLOW SEEMS DESTINED TO COME MORE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BEFORE SLIDING EAST...WHICH CANNOT HELP BUT BE MILDER THAN THE FLOW OUT OF THE ARCTIC WE HAVE SEEN SO MUCH OF FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOOKING AT PATCHY RAIN ACROSS THE SE PART OF CENTRAL PA INTO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFT. SOME SNOW AT JST NOW. 06Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. COLD FRONT AT 03Z NOW EAST OF CWA...WITH REMNANTS FROM EARLIER TSTMS CONTINUING TO IMPACT MD/E PA/NJ. ACROSS CENTRAL PA...COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW. SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS LOWER SUSQ TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NW HALF OF CWA INTO FRI. CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST HOUR /02Z TO 03Z/ HAVE TAKEN A QUICK TURN DOWNWARD AS MOST PLACES AT 02Z WERE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE AN MVFR DECK QUICKLY FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING FRI WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOO. WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE MORE SIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR AS LOW CLOUDS AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT KBFD-KJST. FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH REDUCTIONS IN MOST PLACES...WITH MIXING BRINGING IMPROVEMENT FIRST IN THE SE THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL MTNS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. OUTLOOK... SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR. MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR

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