Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 151713 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 113 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front over northern PA will move south of the Keystone state this afternoon. Temperatures will still be unseasonably mild this weekend. Another cold front will usher in a change in airmass by late Sunday into early next week, with a chance for snow showers by Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Frontal bolundary pushing across the central part of the state this afternoon. Rain showers have dminished ahead of the front with just scattered activity over the lower Susquehanna valley. Expect these to push out of the forecast area by evening. Steady or slowly falling temperatures throughout the area today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Some fog in the valleys is possible overnight, mainly in the central and south. A patch of broken, low clouds due to CAA over the Alleghenies should keep fog at bay there. Clearing in the SErn half of the area will help take mins into the 30s everywhere. Have nudged T`s down a bit from prev fcsts there. Saturday looks like a winner - in between cold fronts. Temps should get back into the 60-62F range in the SE, and 50s elsewhere, but just barely for the nrn mtns. The WSW wind will pick up in the aftn, esp in the NW half of the CWA. The front should make at least a thin line of showers along it, and make just a tenth or two of rain as it drops across the NW half Sat night. The front won`t be carrying that much mstr with it, and the showers will break up/end for the most part as it gets past the spine of the Appalachians in the late night or very early daytime. The air will be 5-8F colder on Sun than Sat - with maxes about normal in the NW, but still a little milder than normal for St Patrick`s Day parades. As any leftover showers go thru the S and linger in the NW, you may see a rainbow if you look to the west (morning rainbows are more-rare than evening bows), but that`s a tough call to make this far away. Might have to see the radar on Sun morning to give yourself the best chance at finding the pot of gold. Of course, this forecast is gold, but not quite bitcoin.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Noticeably cooler, near seasonal temps, appear likely Sunday/Sun night. The bulk of medium range guidance then tracks a potent upper level shortwave and cold front through the region Monday. A round of snow showers/squalls could accompany the passage of this feature Monday. Strong large scale forcing, steep lower tropospheric lapse rates and even some cape are evident in some models with the fropa, signaling a potential of squalls. Below normal temperatures and lake effect snow showers appear likely Tue/Wed, as upper level troughing and a cold northwest flow over the Grt Lks remains in place. Fair weather and moderating temperatures appear likely by next Thursday, as the upper trough begins to lift out. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... I did edge winds up some into this afternoon, based on a strong cold front moving across the region and winds reported in the obs. Earlier discussion below. Early morning showers are overspreading across NW PA as a cold front pushes in across the region. Rain is expected to be mostly scattered in nature as it moves along the front from NW to SE throughout the day. Some weak elevated instability is possible within these storms so a rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out. The greatest chance for thunder will be in the SE. Low clouds that have moved in across the west and north are likely to stick around for most of the day and improving cigs are not expected until tonight. Some areas may still be seeing higher LLWS concerns, but those should decrease over the next couple of hours behind the passage of the cold front. Dry conditions are expected for tonight and into tomorrow. Outlook... Sat...Breezy, MVFR cigs poss NW. Sun...Rain showers with MVFR cigs NW half. Some snow could mix in during the late afternoon across the northwest, Mon...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front with rain showers possible across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Tue...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19 at 11:06 PM EDT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Martin NEAR TERM...Martin/Tyburski SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Tyburski LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff AVIATION...Martin/Bowen CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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