Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300122 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 922 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION. VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... STABLE STRATIFICATION HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...SLOW MOVING 5H SHEAR AXIS ACCOMPANYING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASE AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF MY FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER MY NORTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT...AND INCLUDED SLGT CHC MENTIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS SFC DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE. MINS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS - WHICH SHOULD BE OF LESSER COVERAGE THAN SAT MORNING. THEN...THE TEMPS RISE EVEN BETTER...ADDING ANOTHER 3-4F ONTO SAT/S MAXES. RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS STARTING TO GET PRESSED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SLIGHT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. THUS...SUPPORT IN THE FORMS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE ON SUNDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEEP THEM MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA AS AXIS OF THE DYING TROUGH. SREF POPS WAY TOO AMBITIOUS. POPS FROM MOS ARE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE WILL ALLOW FOR. WILL KEEP THEM 50 OR LESS NW AND CLOSE TO OR BELOW 20 IN THE SE HALF. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH 850HPA TEMPS RUNNING 16-18C WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LOW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WHICH ARE FCST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS MOISTURE DIFFUSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S....SOME OF IT WILL GRADUALLY CRAWL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR THAT WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MENTION OF AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE LATTER FEATURE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK...TAPERING BACK TEMPS A BIT. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MINOR UPDATES WITH SOME SCALING BACK OF THE OVERNIGHT RAIN BASED ON THE RADAR AND THE 3KM HRRR. SOME WEAK SHOWERS COULD REACH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. BUT VERY WEAK SO DID NOT PUT IN THE TAFS. AT THIS TIME NO VCSH IN KBFD...CURRENT BEST PLACE FOR SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT MOSTLY PATCH GROUND FOG AND MIST....MAINLY MVFR ISOLATED IFR. MOST AREAS FOG BURNS OF TO HAZE AND GENERALLY ANOTHER RELATIVELY GOOD IN SOUTH. GUIDANCE IMPLIES CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PA. SHOWERS AND VCTS IN KBFD MOST OF THE DAY...MENTIONED LATER 18-20Z IN SOUTH MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL AREAS...KJST...KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT. KEPT RAIN OUT OF FORECAST AS LOWER PROBABILITY IN SOUTH....KMDT AND KLNS. OUTLOOK... MON...MAINLY PM SHRA/TSRA POSS. TUE-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. AREAS MVFR OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...GRUMM/DANGELO

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