Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCTP 211153
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
753 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016
High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
through Thursday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions. There
is a very low chance for isolated rain showers heading into the
weekend, followed by more fair and tranquil weather with
seasonably cooler temperatures Sunday into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another morning with typical Central PA fog pattern in the
valleys. Some of the fog is locally dense but no where near to the
extent of yesterday. The fog should burn off faster this morning
giving way to abundant sunshine. Afternoon temperatures reach the
upper 70s to mid 80s or about +10-15 degrees above normal for the
last day of summer. A persistence forecast should do quite well
with patchy fog again tonight into Thursday morning.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The first official day of fall will feel more like summer with
more dry wx and above normal temperatures. A frontal boundary
extending from the Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes into
Upstate NY will slowly sink toward northern PA by the end of the
period. A very low chance for isolated showers remains confined to
the north of I-80 later Friday into Friday night/early Saturday
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models remain in good agreement in pushing a backdoor cold front
southward through Central PA on Saturday. Odds for measurable rain
are still very low with precip probs in the 10-20 percent range.
A seasonably cooler and refreshing fall airmass will arrive
behind the front Saturday night and last into early next week.
Some of the colder spots in north-central PA may dip into the 30s
which is not unusual for this time of year.
Amplified pattern evolving next week would seem to favor a slower
eastward frontal system progression from the Midwest and therefore
have pushed back max POPs into Tuesday based on a blend of 21/00z
operational and ensemble guidance.
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Patchy valley fog at IPT, BFD and LNS will continue through the
first half of the morning before the inversion breaks out. Once
this occurs, any reducing conditions will lift/dissipate.
Widespread VFR will continue with local areas of fog and low
clouds expected to develop overnight. Not expecting the fog to be
widespread. While BFD, MDT, LNS and IPT have low dewpoint
depressions,reload Wednesday night into Thursday with more of the
Thu-Sun...Patchy AM valley fog possible with nice mostly clear
-- End Changed Discussion --
Astronomical fall begins at 10:21am on Thursday, September 22, 2016.