Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 302311 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 711 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH FROM THE POTTER/TIOGA COUNTY BORDER SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS BRINGING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F RANGE EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES. WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS SUMMER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST. ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SSW FLOW DOWNSLOPES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP CONDS THERE VFR OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR. WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM. THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...COLBERT AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR

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