Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 211153 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 753 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern through Thursday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions. There is a very low chance for isolated rain showers heading into the weekend, followed by more fair and tranquil weather with seasonably cooler temperatures Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Another morning with typical Central PA fog pattern in the valleys. Some of the fog is locally dense but no where near to the extent of yesterday. The fog should burn off faster this morning giving way to abundant sunshine. Afternoon temperatures reach the upper 70s to mid 80s or about +10-15 degrees above normal for the last day of summer. A persistence forecast should do quite well with patchy fog again tonight into Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The first official day of fall will feel more like summer with more dry wx and above normal temperatures. A frontal boundary extending from the Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes into Upstate NY will slowly sink toward northern PA by the end of the period. A very low chance for isolated showers remains confined to the north of I-80 later Friday into Friday night/early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models remain in good agreement in pushing a backdoor cold front southward through Central PA on Saturday. Odds for measurable rain are still very low with precip probs in the 10-20 percent range. A seasonably cooler and refreshing fall airmass will arrive behind the front Saturday night and last into early next week. Some of the colder spots in north-central PA may dip into the 30s which is not unusual for this time of year. Amplified pattern evolving next week would seem to favor a slower eastward frontal system progression from the Midwest and therefore have pushed back max POPs into Tuesday based on a blend of 21/00z operational and ensemble guidance. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Patchy valley fog at IPT, BFD and LNS will continue through the first half of the morning before the inversion breaks out. Once this occurs, any reducing conditions will lift/dissipate. Widespread VFR will continue with local areas of fog and low clouds expected to develop overnight. Not expecting the fog to be widespread. While BFD, MDT, LNS and IPT have low dewpoint depressions,reload Wednesday night into Thursday with more of the same. Outlook... Thu-Sun...Patchy AM valley fog possible with nice mostly clear days.
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&& .CLIMATE... Astronomical fall begins at 10:21am on Thursday, September 22, 2016. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...La Corte/Ceru CLIMATE...

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