Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 180723 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 223 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift across the region this evening followed by a cold frontal passage late tonight and early Wednesday. High pressure will follow and bring mainly dry conditions with temperatures several degrees above normal from the middle of the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The combination of cold dense air trapped in the valleys and increasing moisture associated with the approaching occlusion/warm front is causing areas of fog. The front appears to be so weak it is sliding over the low level cold air, leading to diminishing hopes that we will scour out any time soon. This suggests a rather murky start to Wednesday with low clouds gradually lifting and breaking up by late morning into the afternoon as a secondary cold front brings a stronger push of cooler-drier air/ The new airmass will not be especially chilly, barely cold enough to produce a flurry on the trough`s backside, but those will favor the usual higher elevation terminals of the west. Low temps early Wednesday will range from the mid 30s acrs the northern mountains, to the lower 40s in the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Gradual improvement is expected as the Wednesday wears on...but it will be a slow process as 5h low drops ESE to the Del Marva by afternoon...helping a secondary front drop across the area to signal improvement in the afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout with some brightening mid to late afternoon south central and southeast. Highs will range from the upper 30s north to around 50F southeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridge re-establishes itself over the eastern U.S. for late in the week, as mild SW flow persists over the midwest. Guidance suggests energy will dive south along the west coast eventually helping to strengthen the building upper ridge over the east. We`ll be on the eastern side of this, so subtle shortwaves sliding into the Midwest will bring varying amounts of cloudiness to the west (less in the east) with low end chances for light showers. Another wave approaches/lifts into the OH valley late next weekend into next Monday. Again, temps could be marginal at the start of pcpn overnight Sunday for some ice or snow, but the bulk of pcpn looks to be rain at this point. However, some guidance suggesting enough presence of cold air to for wintry p-types across northern PA. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Transition to westerly flow will spell improving conditions east of the Allegheny Front with VLIFR-IFR trending to MVFR/VFR by 15z. IFR to LMVFR cigs will likely persist at KBFD/KJST through the period before slowly improving on Thursday. Outlook... Thu...BCMG VFR west. No sig wx. Fri...Sub-VFR likely with rain moving SW-NE during the day. Sat...Sub-VFR possible with chc of rain increasing south-north. Sun...Sub-VFR likely with rain developing.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl

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