Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 151713
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
113 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over northern PA will move south of the Keystone
state this afternoon. Temperatures will still be unseasonably
mild this weekend. Another cold front will usher in a change in
airmass by late Sunday into early next week, with a chance for
snow showers by Monday.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Frontal bolundary pushing across the central part of the state
this afternoon. Rain showers have dminished ahead of the front
with just scattered activity over the lower Susquehanna valley.
Expect these to push out of the forecast area by evening. Steady
or slowly falling temperatures throughout the area today.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Some fog in the valleys is possible overnight, mainly in the
central and south. A patch of broken, low clouds due to CAA
over the Alleghenies should keep fog at bay there. Clearing in
the SErn half of the area will help take mins into the 30s
everywhere. Have nudged T`s down a bit from prev fcsts there.
Saturday looks like a winner - in between cold fronts. Temps
should get back into the 60-62F range in the SE, and 50s
elsewhere, but just barely for the nrn mtns. The WSW wind will
pick up in the aftn, esp in the NW half of the CWA. The front
should make at least a thin line of showers along it, and make
just a tenth or two of rain as it drops across the NW half Sat
night. The front won`t be carrying that much mstr with it, and
the showers will break up/end for the most part as it gets past
the spine of the Appalachians in the late night or very early
daytime. The air will be 5-8F colder on Sun than Sat - with
maxes about normal in the NW, but still a little milder than
normal for St Patrick`s Day parades. As any leftover showers go
thru the S and linger in the NW, you may see a rainbow if you
look to the west (morning rainbows are more-rare than evening
bows), but that`s a tough call to make this far away. Might have
to see the radar on Sun morning to give yourself the best
chance at finding the pot of gold. Of course, this forecast is
gold, but not quite bitcoin.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Noticeably cooler, near seasonal temps, appear likely
Sunday/Sun night. The bulk of medium range guidance then tracks
a potent upper level shortwave and cold front through the region
Monday. A round of snow showers/squalls could accompany the
passage of this feature Monday. Strong large scale forcing,
steep lower tropospheric lapse rates and even some cape are
evident in some models with the fropa, signaling a potential of
squalls.
Below normal temperatures and lake effect snow showers appear
likely Tue/Wed, as upper level troughing and a cold northwest
flow over the Grt Lks remains in place. Fair weather and
moderating temperatures appear likely by next Thursday, as the
upper trough begins to lift out.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
I did edge winds up some into this afternoon, based on a strong
cold front moving across the region and winds reported in the
obs.
Earlier discussion below.
Early morning showers are overspreading across NW PA as a cold
front pushes in across the region. Rain is expected to be
mostly scattered in nature as it moves along the front from NW
to SE throughout the day. Some weak elevated instability is
possible within these storms so a rumble of thunder or two
cannot be ruled out. The greatest chance for thunder will be in
the SE.
Low clouds that have moved in across the west and north are
likely to stick around for most of the day and improving cigs
are not expected until tonight. Some areas may still be seeing
higher LLWS concerns, but those should decrease over the next
couple of hours behind the passage of the cold front. Dry
conditions are expected for tonight and into tomorrow.
Outlook...
Sat...Breezy, MVFR cigs poss NW.
Sun...Rain showers with MVFR cigs NW half. Some snow could mix
in during the late afternoon across the northwest,
Mon...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front with rain
showers possible across the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
Tue...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19
at 11:06 PM EDT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin/Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Tyburski
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff
AVIATION...Martin/Bowen
CLIMATE...Steinbugl