Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261852 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 252 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL RIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SFC COLD FRONT TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. A SHORT WHILE AGO...SLIGHTLY BETTER CELLS BUBBLED UP OVER NORTHUMBERLAND AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...WHICH HAVE SINCE PUSHED INTO KPHL CWA. INVERTED V SOUNDING ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE INSTABILITY (MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND 30-35 KT 700-850 MB WINDS WILL PRESENT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF CENTRAL PA. SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #107 IN EFFECT UNTIL 01Z. LATEST...FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSRA NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE ENDING BY MID EVENING. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF BROKEN STRATUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO ERODE STRATUS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GLAKS. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE PERHAPS KEEPING A MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER NEAR THE MD BORDER. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST DESPITE COOLER MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 50S NORTH THROUGH THE 60S SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA OUT OF WV MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS STILL ON FRIDAY. LEFT POPS IN. STILL SOME HINTS OF A JET MAX DROPPING SE ON SAT...BUT REALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS STILL EXPECT THE DAY TO BE DRY. MID SHIFT HAD SOME SHOWERS IN FOR LATER ON SUNDAY. YESTERDAY THE EC WAS TOO FAST...STILL THAT WAY TODAY. LEFT POPS IN BUT DID LOWER SOME FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT..DID EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE. LOOKS WET AND COOL FOR MONDAY. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE SUPERBLEND WITH THE POPS. CLEARING OUT LATER MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER THAN WE HAVE HAD LATELY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS THROUGH 00Z. PRECIP WILL END FROM NW TO SE...EXITING THE LOWER SUSQ SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED. LOWERING CIGS WILL SAG IN FROM THE NORTH...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIKELY EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY. SAT...FAIR. SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR

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