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000
FXUS61 KCTP 021743
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1243 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BOUT OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY/MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER TROF SLICING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING ITS ASSOCIATED POST
FRONTAL SFC TROF PASSAGE. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH MEASURED ON ROOF
HERE AT INNOVATION PARK JUST NORTH OF PENN STATE CAMPUS...AND
COLDER AIR IS NOW RUSHING DOWNHILL TOWARDS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS HOUR.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AFTER PRE DAWN MAXES BRIEFLY JUMPING ABOVE FREEZING.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE.

SCT TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST/
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL LAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. REGIONAL
METARS INDICATE MOST VSBYS IN THE 2SM RANGE...BUT BLOWING IS
LOCALLY REDUCING VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL
RANGE FROM A COATING TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH LOCALLY
UP TO 1 ADDITIONAL INCH ON THE WEST FACING SLOPES/RIDGETOPS TO THE
WEST OF RT 219 THROUGH MIDDAY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY USING A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WILL VARY FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. MOST HIGHS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOCATIONS OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARMER AIR ALOFT MORE READILY INVADES THE REGION FROM
THE SW /ALONG WITH NOTABLY HIGHER PWAT VALUES/.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF 00-06Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE LATEST ENS
GUIDANCE LEADS TO A SOLUTION FOR AN INITIAL FEW TO SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF
MIXED PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

PAINTED A GENERAL COATING-1 INCH OF SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SUSQ VALLEY...WITH 1-3 INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS PRIOR TO THE
TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FZRA. ICE ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER
OF 0.15-0.25 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS OF PA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS IN MOST PLACES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED...TOOK SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE NW. TIGHT THICKNESS PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORT A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW PA
TO SE PA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY NW OF OUR AREA. LEFT POPS UP...THINK
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.

IN FACT...THE 00Z EC AND FRESH IN 06Z NAM BOTH HIGHLIGHT A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...AND EXTENSIVE RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE...
STREAMING NE ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED-OUT FRONT /JUST SOUTH OF
THE MASON/DIXON LINE...AND OHIO RIVER/. THIS WILL GREATLY
COMPLICATE THE WEATHER FOR THE LATE WED INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT-MDT SNOWFALL ACROSS SE THIRD TO HALF
OF PENN.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS BY TO OUR
NE...A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING
SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST
AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WNW FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA WITH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND LOCALLY OVER 40 MPH. OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL HANG ON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO LATE MORNING. CENTRAL MTNS MAINLY SEEING CIG
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR /WITH SOME BLSN/...WHICH WILL ALSO LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO VFR. N/W HIGHER TERRAIN GETTING COMBO REDUCTIONS OF
BOTH CIGS/VSBYS WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS... WHICH WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WE/LL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE
UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS AND
LLWS DEVELOPING LATE AFT AND LASTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR