Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 150712 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 212 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build east into the region today, followed by milder conditions that will work back into the area for Tuesday. Accompanying the brief warmup will be periods of rain Tuesday and Tuesday night. The rain should begin as a few hour period of freezing rain in many locations throughout Central and Northern Pennsylvania early Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... Regional 11-3.9um Satellite loop shows bkn-ovc warm and non- precipitating strato cu clouds covering about the SE half of PA at 07Z. This area of clouds was drifting slowly to the SE. The moist, sub-freezing air and wet ground, was combining with light NW wind (to calm air in some locations) and producing fairly widespread black ice. A Special Weather Statement was extended until 13Z today to highlight this hazard for pedestrians and travelers. Low temps shortly after sunrise this morning will vary from the upper teens across the northern tier of PA, to the mid and upper 20s in the south. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure will build into the area from the Great Lakes today, supplying us with fair weather and relatively light nwrly wind with highs mostly in the 30s. Clear to partly cloudy skies, and a decent amount of sunshine to start the day (especially across the nrn mtns of PA) will be topped by a layer of cirrus/cirrostratus streaming in from the west during the midday and afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The stubborn trough/upper low over the west coast will weaken and lift across the southern plains into the great lakes region as a pattern change begins. Ridge over the area tries to hold firm as a warm front lifts through Ohio River Valley early in the upcoming week. This frontal boundary will be preceded and accompanied by a light, wintry mix of precip during the morning hours Monday. A good portion of next week is shaping up to be mild and showery, as bulk of med range guidance shows a ridge slowly retreating off the East Coast as remnants of that west coast low get picked up by the northern stream and track across PA midweek. For Tue into Tue night, deep southerly flow ahead of that trough will bring a plume of anomalous PWATS over the region which supports the idea of showery (rain) and mild weather. As has been the case frequently lately, the GFS brings the trough through faster than the ECMWF. Winds turn westerly behind the system as flow turns more zonal, but with no cold air in sight, temps will remain mild and above freezing. Ridge re-establishes itself over the eastern U.S. for late week, as mild SW flow persists over the midwest. Guidance suggests energy will dive south along the west coast eventually helping to strengthen the building upper ridge over the east. We`ll be on the eastern side of this, so subtle shortwaves sliding into the Midwest will bring varying amounts of cloudiness to the west (less in the east) with low end chances for light showers. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IR satellite loop shows back edge of low clouds pushing south of KFIG-KIPT line. Expect MVFR/IFR cigs over the southern 1/2 to 1/3 of the airspace to improve to VFR by later this morning. VFR will persist for the remainder of today and through tonight. Outlook... Tue...Sub-VFR likely with freezing rain to rain. Wed...Sub-VFR possible with rain ending Wed ngt. Thu...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl

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