Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261534 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1034 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLIPPER WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...AS SECONDARY COASTAL STORM TAKES SHAPE SOUTH OF NEW ENG. THE COASTAL STORM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NEW ENG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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INCREASING DEFORMATION BETWEEN THE INVERTED SFC TROF OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PA AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF OF SOUTHEAST VA IS MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW ACROSS THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS PRESENTLY. MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ARE NOT YET REAPING THE BENEFIT AND ARE IN A RELATIVE LULL THIS MORNING. BASED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND HI RES MODEL TRENDS...EXPECT THE LOWER SUSQ TO FILL BACK IN WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS ALREADY TOOK THIS INTO ACCOUNT...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO FORECAST AMOUNTS...BUT DID ADJUST THE NEAR TERM POPS TO REFLECT THE LULL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVR CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AXIS OF DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BTWN LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR NEW ENGLAND...FORCED LOCALLY BY THE INCREASING AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION. HI RES NAM/HRRR/WRF ARW ALL SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS/ALLEGHENIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF DEEPENING TROF WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED SFC TROF AND PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR THE ALLEGHENY AND SC MTNS. ALL LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES COASTAL STORM WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON CENTRAL PA. MDL 7H FGEN FIELDS INDICATE ASSOC DEFORMATION BAND SNOW WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF OUR CWA. BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF SUPPORTS AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ALLEGHENY MTNS. DWINDLING MTNS SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY...AS NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN WAKE OF STORM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FAIR AND CHILLY WED EXPECTED WED...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE AREA. MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES A CHANCE OF SNOW THURS/THU NIGHT WITH NEXT IN SERIES OF CLIPPERS. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS THE SFC LOW NORTH OF PA...LIKELY RESULTING IN MINIMAL ACCUMS ACROSS OUR AREA. ECENS SHOWS A DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVR THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND...OFFERING NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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REDUCTIONS CONTINUE REGIONWIDE AS INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER CENTRAL PA /AND AS DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST/. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH VSBYS VARYING FROM 1-4SM AND CIGS OF MVFR-IFR SETTLING BACK TOWARD A MORE ROBUST IFR DECK. NE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...AND PICK UP A BIT TO 10-15 MPH IN THE LOWER SUSQ TONIGHT AS STORM DEEPENS TO THE EAST AND SYNOPTIC FLOW INCREASES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS IN NW FLOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH WIND WILL BE BREEZY...PRODUCING SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH. OUTLOOK... TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...GENERALLY VFR EAST. BREEZY N WIND. WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED. THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>026-033>036-045-058-059-064>066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ027- 028-041-046-049>053-056-057-063. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...RXR

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