Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 151825 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 225 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE KEYSTONE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ACTIVITY ALREADY JUST WEST OF PA...ADJUSTED TIMING SOME. TEMPS LOOK GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF TUE AM...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAST. HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON. WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL. GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN NEAR TERM...MARTIN SHORT TERM...MARTIN LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...MARTIN

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