Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 160941 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 541 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EASTER WEEKEND...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WINDS THUS FAR HOLDING TEMPS A TINY BIT MILDER THAN NEAR-RECORD COLD. BUT THE TEMPS ARE GETTING CLOSE TO RECORDS IN MANY AREAS. ONLY CLOUDS LEFT AT ALL ARE OVER SOMERSET AND TIOGA COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD DIE OFF VERY QUICKLY AND THE DAY SHOULD BE SUNNY UNDER 1035MB SFC HIGH. ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES A LITTLE TO THE EAST. WIND WILL STAY UP IN THE EAST BUT THE ADVANCE OF THE RIDGE WILL KNOCK THEM DOWN THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH FOR THE LOWER SUSQ FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER - BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM - TONIGHT. SO DESPITE WAA ALOFT TONIGHT...THE DECOUPLED ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE ANY DESIRED CHANGES AFTER THE CURRENT WARNING EXPIRES. CERTAINLY FROST IS A GIVEN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NIL WX FOR THE PERIOD WITH A GOOD WARM UP THURS AS THE LOW LEVELS MIX AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RESULT. THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD START TO BRING IN SOME MARITIME MSTR LATE THURSDAY BUT THAT IS A LITTLE TOO-MESOSCALE TO PIN DOWN AT THIS RANGE. MORE LIKELY THOUGH THAT THOSE LOWER CLOUDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS OVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STG RIDGING WILL EXTEND SWWD ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM STG HP CELL CENTERED OVER MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AGAIN WED NGT INTO AM THURS...AND THEREFORE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO +3-4SD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE EASTERLY MARITIME LLVL FLOW WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN/DZ POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE SERN ZONES. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI-SAT WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS IDEA BUT TIMING DIFFS MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE REAMPLIFYING UPSTREAM...WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED ALONG THE WEST COAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE- AVG 500MB RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS AND TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE NERN CONUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN DUE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE LW FLOW...WITH SEVERAL LOW-MEDIUM CHC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN IN THE OUTER PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS -10 TO -15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MILDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LKLY STILL AVG BELOW LATE APRIL CLIMO. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLDS AND SNOW SHOWERS GONE NOW. THUS ADJUSTED CIGS AT BFD AND JST...MAIN CHANGES ON 9Z TAF UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. MAIN PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. A LARGE VARIATION IN CIGS...WILL HOLD ONTO LOWER CIGS AT JST AND BFD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUIDS INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THU AND MOST OF FRI. ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY SAT. OUTLOOK... .THU-FRI...GENERALLY VFR. .SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN /AND POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/. .SUN...MAINLY VFR UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. && .CLIMATE... LOOKS LIKE BRADFORD HAS A NEW RECORD MIN FOR THE 16TH ALREADY - AND ALSO CAME CLOSE FOR THE 15TH AS WELL - JUST A DEGREE OFF TYING THE RECORD FOR TAX DAY. BUT THE SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD AT BFD AIRPORT /SINCE 1957/ MAKES IT A LITTLE EASIER TO CRACK MANY OF THE RECORDS THERE. KJST AND KAOO HAVE ALSO ATTAINED/TIED THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD MINS FOR TODAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SEE WHAT THE FINAL NUMS ARE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING - AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING - ARE/WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FROM AROUND THE AREA. AOO... TODAY 24/1950/... THURSDAY 23/1980/ BFD... TODAY 18/1980/... THURSDAY 16/1963/ JST... TODAY 20/1943/... THURSDAY 21/1966/ IPT... TODAY 20/1943/... THURSDAY 25/1904/ MDT... TODAY 25/1943/... THURSDAY 29/1980 AND 1904/ && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-063>066. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...MARTIN CLIMATE...COLBERT/STEINBUGL

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