Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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421 FXUS61 KCTP 261007 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 607 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will deepen across the region today into Tuesday. This feature will keep it cooler than normal into Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be across the region today and Tuesday, especially across the northern part of the Keystone state during the afternoon hours. A warm up and return of higher humidity levels will occur on Thursday, as high pressure moves off the east coast. While temperatures will average closer to normal for the second half of the week, there will still be a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms from time to time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Did trim back some on the weather and POPS the next few hours, as there is nothing on radar now. There will be a chance for a few showers later this morning, mainly across northern PA, given the cold air aloft.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Minor changes made to the fcst package. Today and Tuesday look similar to the weekend, with mainly an afternoon shra/tsra passing quickly across the region. The showers and storms will be most numerous across the nrn tier. Temperatures will be colder aloft today and Tuesday, so expect more in the way of clouds and cooler temperatures, especially on Tuesday. Given how cold it is aloft, a shower or two will be possible after sunset this evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The trough will lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by Wed. As the high moves off the east coast by Thursday, a southwest flow of warmer air will work into the area. Expect max/min temps to rise above normal levels for the weekend along with an increase in convective activity - especially over NW half of CWA. Convection will be more scattered over the SE. Still a tendency to have an abnormally strong jet across the northwest states so far this warm season. While this may allow a warm up at times, the weather pattern is very active for late June. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Isolated light showers behind the front continue to move along the Pennsylvania and New York border. Have left VCSH in BFD. Any showers could increase chances of IFR cigs and vsbys. Though any IFR cigs/vsbys will be intermittent. Have MVFR cigs and vsbys beginning between 08Z to 10Z and continuing to shortly after sunrise. Otherwise generally VFR tomorrow, with winds picking up by late morning or early afternoon. Showers will also develop tomorrow, again mainly across the north. Only at KBFD have I included categorical SHRA during the mid/late day hours, as coverage elsewhere too low to mention at this time. .OUTLOOK... Tue...Mainly VFR, but scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA north. Wed...VFR. Thu-Fri...Mainly VFR, but isolated/scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA. && .EQUIPMENT... KCCX radar has been brought back on line temporarily (as of Sunday afternoon), but further outages are expected through at least this evening. This outage is allowing the technicians to install the first of 4 major service-life extension upgrades. The work on the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner/Martin NEAR TERM...Martin SHORT TERM...Martin LONG TERM...Martin/RXR AVIATION...Jung/Ceru EQUIPMENT...Martin

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