Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 211924 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 224 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push southeast across the area this afternoon and evening, then stall out in the vicinity of the Mason-Dixon line or across the Virginias for the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The cold front as of 1PM just went through FIG. Showers have been on the increase, but also have become a lot less organized as the day has progressed. The HRRR shows the cold front continuing to settle SE, reaching SEG before 3PM from about IPT to JST by 18Z/1PM, and passing through the lower Susq Valley between 4 and 7PM. I inserted the mention of thunder over the SE given the latest HRRR generating some instability in the warm and moist airmass. Dewpoints are approaching 60 over the SE where it no doubt feels quite humid for the time of year. The overnight will see precipitation redeveloping as a wave along the front ripples eastward. The issue that will arise is the potential for a wintry mix to develop and settle south as colder temperatures return to northern PA. Right now we have an advisory for the northern counties from I-80 northward. The in house HRRR shows mainly freezing rain and sleet as the winter Wx threats while the SPC HREF has a colder solution and brings the chance of freezing rain all the way down to the MD border. Blended MOS hourly temperatures don`t support being that pessimistic at this time so for now we will concentrate the headlines over the northern tier.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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Highs Thursday will be some 30-35 deg colder than today as a big burly high builds to our north and pushes the new chilly airmass south into the Mid Atlantic states. The first wave is expected to slide east with the steadiest precipitation being in the morning, becoming more scattered and showery in the afternoon. There will likely be a prolonged period into early afternoon where temperatures flirting with freezing will keep the threat of sleet/ice/snow as the predominant weather types over the northern 1/3 or so of the forecast area. Right now it looks like a thin coating of ice with perhaps as much as 2-3 inches of snow from Warren County east through Tioga County.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast for Thursday into Friday looks cloudy and damp with periods of light rain/drizzle and areas of fog. The fog will be locally dense at times, especially on East-Facing slopes and ridgetops during the overnight and early to mid morning hours. Stalled out sfc front across the Virginias and Ohio River Valley and SW flow aloft will be the conduit for a few waves of low pressure to ripple NE along, and bring us this rather dismal weather. There is the potential for a significant change in practical weather...if frontal position changes north or south very much. Still looking like another warm up on Sunday. Potential for some heavy showers across the west...but several days out. Still looks dry behind the front Sunday Night...so I took out the showers of the fcst after 06Z Monday. Left Monday into Tuesday dry...weak system fcst to cut under the ridge...but not seeing much moisture with this. Another round or two or rain is likely over the weekend. We will need to monitor the potential for flooding especially across south- central PA where the ground is very saturated from previous rain/snowmelt and streamflows are well above normal. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A sharp cold front will continue to slide SE across the flying area with VFR dominating the warm air east of the front and MVFR/IFR with scattered rain and showers on the cold side of the front. Some drier air and improved conditions will move in this evening as the front settles south, but will be replaced by lowering ceilings once again between about 06-12Z as a new area of rain overspreads the region. Across the far north a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow is likely and could last into the early afternoon hours. An active second half of the week follows, as several weak waves of low pressure bringing bouts of rain, and even some light freezing precipitation to the north Thu into early Fri. Outlook... Fri...Widespread restrictions in periods of rain. Some improvement poss SW late. Sat...Rain remains likely. Widespread restrictions north, gradual improvement south. Sun...Widespread restrictions likely in periods of rain. Mon...No sig wx.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Recent rainfall and snowmelt has resulted in wet soil and well above normal streamflows across much of the area especially south-central PA. Rainfall of 0.50 to 1.00 inch is forecast between Wednesday and Thursday night, with additional rainfall likely into/over the weekend. River flood potential (including small streams, creeks and tributaries) is above normal and we will continue to monitor the risk in the coming days. && .CLIMATE... It Looks like another day of record highs across southern Pa today. Here are current records for today, Wednesday February 21st: MDT: 71/1997 IPT: 69/1930 BFD: 64/1997 AOO: 71/1997 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...La Corte HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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