Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 160306 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1106 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... In the mean a weak upper-level trough will dominate our weather over the next week. A weak wave moving into the trough will trigger showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday. A strong wave will allow warmer air into the region by mid-week before another surge of cooler dry air moves into our region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... GOES-16 clean channel imagery continuing to show gradual thinning and clearing of shallow stratocumulus deck which earlier covered much of central and north central PA. This will yield a cool and dry overnight with mins ranging from lower to mid 50s cooler spots of the Northwest Mountains to the mid 60s southeast. Humidity still in the tolerable range for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday should be cool and dry...with low humidity, fewer clouds, and thus warmer daytime high temperatures. Clouds do come in from the northwest late in the day and by later afternoon we cannot rule out a shower in northwestern areas. In the evening clouds will increase mainly in the west. We cannot rule out scattered showers over much of the western part of the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper trough will bring the best chance for organized rainfall on Monday. Scattered showers/t`storms may refire again on Tuesday over the eastern parts of the area along SW-NE oriented zone of high moisture/weak instability beneath departing upper trough axis. As the upper level trough lifts out of the region, expect heat to return to the area during the Wed-Fri timeframe. High temps should rise above normal with some guidance showing multiple 90 degree days over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Dangerous heat risk is also a concern with WPC/NDFD fcst max heat index >95F. Precip opportunities appear to be somewhat limited due to the influence of the upper level ridge. Individual disturbances within the stronger westerlies aloft on northern periphery of the prominent upper ridge have low predictability at this range. Models also start to show differences related to fcst details toward the end of next week especially with timing. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR areawide late this evening with just a sliver of a 5000ft deck across the central mountains which should continue to erode overnight. Only worry toward morning will be some patchy MVFR and isolated IFR fog mainly in valleys of the west and north. Fog will burn off quickly Sunday morning, leaving widespread VFR conditions in place. Winds will be light, and clouds will be tough to come by in the morning, but will increase from the NW in the afternoon. An approaching system to our northwest will bring an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms into the northwest Sunday night and areawide Monday. .OUTLOOK... Sun...Patchy AM fog western/northern valleys. Otherwise no sig wx. Mon...Cig restrictions NW in SHRA/TSRA. Sct TSRA impacts elsewhere. Tue...Sct tsra impacts poss east. Wed-Thu...No sig wx.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... The Harrisburg NOAA Weather Radio station WXL-40 (162.550 MHz) remains offline while local technicians work to repair a broken circuit. Return to service is unknown at this time. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Grumm NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...Grumm LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Tyburski AVIATION...RXR EQUIPMENT...

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