Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270534 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1234 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR TO THE KEYSTONE STATE OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...IT WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/... LAST OF THE VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF MY FAR EASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONCERN IS THAT POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD AFFECT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS STUCK IN A LOW OVERCAST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS CHECK OUR PHLPNSCTP PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE. && .SHORT TERM /5 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 27/03Z UPDATE...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM PREVIOUS FCST THEREFORE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO 00Z SCHEDULED TAFS. VLIFR CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT JST WITH VIS BLW AIRFIELD MINS AT TIMES WITH SOME -FZDZ POSSIBLE. 27/00Z...MVFR-VFR CONDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA ZNY SECTOR. TROUBLE SPOT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW MSTR AND WEAK FLOW ARE PRODUCING LOW CIGS IN THE IFR TO VLIFR RANGE. WEAK UPSLOPE NW COMPONENT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CIGS WITH JST AT 1/4SM WITH FZFG. FEEL A PERSISTENCE FCST MAY WORK BEST HERE WITH CONTINUED WEAK FLOW AND UPSTREAM OBS NOT FAVORING IMPROVEMENT. SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE FCST TO DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY NGT OVER THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED CONDS ARE LKLY TO PERSIST. OUTLOOK... THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS CNTRL/EAST. FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL. MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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