Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 092326 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 726 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY TONIGHT...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRODUCED A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND CAPES WERE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MY AREA. ALL REMAINING COUNTIES CLEARED FROM EARLIER WATCH BOX...AND THE EVENING WILL FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AS CYCLONICALLY SHEARED UPPER FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE COMMONEALTH AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED EASTWARD. HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PWATS. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS THE NRN TIER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRES SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON DAY 2 AND BRING A MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...WITH A DEAMPLIFYING MID/UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND Q-STNRY FRONTAL ZONE/MSTR AXIS DRAPED SOUTHEAST OF PA ALONG NJ/SRN MID ATLC COAST...STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACRS XTRME SERN PA. POPS ARE AOB 20 PCT. 00Z GUIDANCE SUPERBLEND YIELDS ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH 40S LKLY AGAIN IN THE NRN MTNS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FRI INTO SAT...THOUGH ISO AIRMASS TSTMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON SAT. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY WITH A S-SW RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY REINTRODUCING MOIST/HUMID SUMMERTIME AIRMASS BACK INTO CNTRL PA...ALONG WITH INCREASING PROB OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS SPRAWLING RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS RETROGRADES AND BUILDS RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...ALLOWING CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA TO SLOWLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR PENN...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR MON-WED...SPARKING ROUNDS OF DAILY CONVECTION AS A SERIES OF REINFORCING FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO CARVE OUT THE DEEP TROUGH. COLD FRONT FINALLY BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR BACK IN STARTING WED...AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WE HAVE DOTTING THE RADAR SCOPE AT 5PM. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...LEADING TO A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO REDUCED CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT-MON...LOCAL RESTRICTIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER

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