Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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151 FXUS61 KCTP 200046 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 746 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and windy conditions are expected overnight with lake effect snow showers continuing over the northwest Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands. Thanksgiving week looks mainly dry with temperatures trending milder to above average into Tuesday before cooling off to near seasonal levels for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Scattered snow showers continue in the cold NW over-lake flow. They are fading in coverage and intensity as the downslope into the Central Mountains and Susq Valley. The snow showers will continue with the trend toward slowly diminishing in coverage as inversion heights slowly lower in response to high pressure building in from the SW. Stayed close to hires ensemble mean for total snow accumulations of 2-4" with localized 4-6" in the perennial lake effect belt north of Route 6. Elsewhere expect an inch or less with perhaps a bit more (up to 2") on the ridges and summits over the Laurel Highlands. Minimum wind chills will drop into the teens and 20s into Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure passing to the south of PA should shift/back the lake effect snow trajectory to more of a WSW-ENE orientation and focus snow showers into southwest NY by Monday afternoon. Cloud cover to the east of the Alleghenies should decrease with mostly cloudy skies trending to partly/mostly sunny by late in the day. Max temps still chilly and few degrees below average for mid/late November. Min temps may occur early over the western higher elevations as southwest winds increase into Tue morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended part of the forecast will see the season`s first real lake effect snow event winding down early in the period, followed by several days of cool but tranquil weather. High pressure will keep conditions dry into Tuesday before a weakening front sliding by to our north brings the small chance of a snow shower to northern areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another area of high pressure will build east and keep us mainly dry at least through the end of the week, before a new frontal system takes aim at the area. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR/IFR expected at KBFD and KJST through tonight with frequent lake effect and orographic snow showers. Downsloping and drying will help to erode most the the MVFR strato cu deck INVOF KAOO/KUNV and keep them mainly VFR. However, both of these airfields will be susceptible to brief vis reductions in snow showers through the overnight hours and early Monday. Flurries and isolated to scattered -SHSN expected but expect low-end VFR cigs to prevail at KIPT. VFR will be the rule at terminals across the Lower Susquehanna River Valleys. Winds/gusts will gradually decrease and shift direction to more westerly between 06-12Z Monday across Western PA TAF sites. Outlook... Mon...AM shsn/reduced vsbys possible NW mountains. Tue-Wed...Chance of rain/snow showers Tue night-AM Wed. Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ004-005. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...La Corte/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...La Corte/Ceru AVIATION...Lambert/Steinbugl

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