Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 190520 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 120 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... ALOT OF CIRRUS NEAR US TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL KEEPING IT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MANY ASOS SITES CANNOT SEE THE CLOUDS AS THEY ARE QUITE HIGH...THOUGH KCCX VWP PICKS UP TARGETS FROM NEAR SURFACETO 18 KFT AT TIMES. STRONG 250HPA JET OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CIRRUS IN ENTRANCE REGION...MORE OF AN ISSUE IN THE SOUTHEAST...FOR US JUST HIGH CIRRUS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY TEMEPATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. RIDGING ALOFT WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS SLOWLY GOING ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THIS SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH EVEN MORE SUN. DON`T NEED AN ENSEMBLE WHEN IT`S PRETTY MUCH A BIG BUBBLE AND NO TROUBLE IN EVERY MODEL ONE EXAMINES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL... SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS OR NAEFS. A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED. OUTLOOK... TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE. SUN-MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER AVIATION...TYBURSKI

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