Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 292328 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 728 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain over the forecast area for much of the weekend. A strong Cold front will move across the region on Monday, followed by cooler air for midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Weak shortwave, which brought showers to northern Pa late this afternoon, has passed into New England this evening. In its wake, expect a dry evening beneath building upper level ridge centered off the southeast coast. At the surface, a shallow cold front along the I-80 corridor is pushing south across the region. Temperatures at 21Z ranged from 54F at BFD to 85F at HGR. This boundary is progged to stall out as it reaches the Mason Dixon Line around midnight. Increasing WAA is indicated by late tonight, as southerly low level jet works eastward from the Ohio Valley. Have used blended POPs to bring a small chance of showers/tstorms back in for the second half of the overnight, mainly across the western counties. Blend of latest HRRR/LAMP support min temps from the chilly mid 40s along the NY border, to the low 60s near the stalled front along the southern border. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... The stalled front will try to crawl back north into the CWA Sunday, presenting a high temperature forecast problem. Near term deterministic models show a cool-air damming scenario hanging rather tough. The surface based LI field is usually a great indicator of this. The ECMWF/NAM/GFS are all in good agreement with the warm air working into my western higher elevations while the ridge-valley areas east of the Alleghenies stay in the clouds and cooler air. If things work out as expected highs will vary from around 60 in the Poconos to around 80 in Somerset county. Again the main focus for Sunday will be for showers/thunderstorms to once again develop and/or move into the region. With the most unstable air expected to be over the western sliver of my CWA, that`s where I would expect the best chance for measurable rain. Once again I used blended MOS POPs for this given that the best focusing mechanism will be well west of the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level ridge builds across the Mid Atlc Region Sunday night and Monday and a warm front will be lifting through the Ohio Valley and W PA. This weather feature will lead to continued chances for showers and even a tsra - mainly in the NW half of the area. Upper low now over the four corners region is forecast to lift through the central Plains on Sunday then the Great Lakes on Monday. This will serve to send pieces of energy along the surface boundary. Temps should return/rise to very very warm levels on Monday. The massive and deepening cyclone lifting into the western Great Lakes Sun night into Monday will push a strong cold front through PA Mon into Mon night, accompanied by a round of potentially potent showers and thunderstorms (likely reaching western half of CWA in the afternoon and eastern half during the evening). Once this front passes by much chillier air will advect into PA on cyclonic flow with unsettled light showery weather persisting mainly for the northern part of the state right into Wednesday. Chance for a more widespread light rain arrives Thu into Fri as a low progged to develop along the southern Appalachians and the lift northward. Models showing strength/timing issues so not getting to specific this far out, but looks like unsettled weather pattern continues. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Experience normally shows that lower clouds work in toward sunrise after a wind shift in the evening with a cold front. In this case, looks like there is enough support to bring in the lower clouds rather fast. Will keep timing close to what we have. Most of the showers gone now. Showers over the Great Lakes line up better with the 850 mb front. Thus for Sunday, went with VCSH, based on this. It may take much of the day for the lower clouds and fog across the east to mix out on Sunday. Showers and storms with the cold front on Monday. Windy and cooler into mid week. Some variation in models for later next week. Outlook... Mon...Breezy. Showers/thunderstorms likely with periods of sub-VFR. FROPA. Tue-Wed...Breezy with a chance of showers NW. Thu...Widespread sub-VFR developing ahead of a warm front.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Martin

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