Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261639 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1239 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will remain nearly stationary just south of the Commonwealth through Wednesday. High pressure will return for mid week with continued warm temperatures. An area of low pressure approaching from the west is likely to lift through the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The weak cold front south of the Mason Dixon line is acting to focus some clouds over southern Pa and even a few light showers just south of the border. RAP meso anal shows CAPEs in excess of 1000J over the border counties, however drier air filtering slowly southward has led to a decease in dewpoints as well as the overall CAPE also. Warm-dry air aloft should help and keep showers out of the bulk of the region today into the evening. The HRRR wants to sneak some remnant midwestern convection into my far swrn zones just after sundown, but confidence is not high for this. Despite slightly lower dewpoints over central PA today...it will still be quite warm and humid with highs ranging from the lower 80s north to the lower 90s south...where Apparent Temps will reach the upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Rich deep layer moisture remains pooled south of the Mason Dixon line tonight and Wednesday...providing dry conditions overall. Mid to high level convective debris from the midwest and Ohio Valley may filter the sky from time to time particularly on Wednesday...and there is a better chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm Wed aftn along the Maryland border over southern portions of the Laurel Highlands and south Central Mountains. Elsewhere it should remain dry and very warm. Lows tonight should reach the comfortable mid to upper 50s northwest...ranging to the muggy lower 70s southeast. highs Wednesday will be a few ticks higher than Tuesday across the north and generally unchanged south...and will range from the mid 80s north to the lower 90s southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... In the extended the heat continues through midweek...then a cooling trend to near normal highs looks likely for a few days as several fronts linger over the area and the core of hot temperatures shifts west. The upper ridge across the Southern U.S. is forecast to retrogress into the Southwestern U.S. by late in the week allowing northern stream energy to produce a weak, but persistent troffing across the northeast states. Cold front currently crossing the region is forecast to stall just south of the PA/MD border. A wave is forecast to form on the front supported by the developing upper trof, moving east through the Ohio Valley Friday and crossing PA on Saturday into Sunday. This looks to bring a prolonged period of unsettled with weather with showery conds across the state. The cloudiness will further support cooler high temperatures than recent days. Low temperatures during this period look to be several degrees above normal, especially across southern sections of the state. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... All terminals are VFR and will continue into the overnight before more patchy fog forms late night into the early hours of Wednesday. OUTLOOK... WED...Patchy early fog, otherwise mainly VFR. THU-SAT...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Neither Harrisburg nor Williamsport reached/exceeded their record max on Monday (7/25). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/La Corte NEAR TERM...DeVoir/La Corte SHORT TERM...DeVoir/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Dangelo/La Corte CLIMATE...

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