Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251652 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM DAY TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH A DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ...AND EXTENDING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF WRN NEW YORK TO THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION...WAS HELPING TO GENERATE A FEW SHRA INVOF KBUF ATTM. AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS. PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH...WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/. SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE 1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION. THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN AVIATION...LAMBERT

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